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08/28/2017

How’s Biz? Taxpaids -4.6% in Jul, Down 2 Mil Bbls YTD; Summer Doldrums Continue in Scan (excerpt)

Beer biz ain’t so hot in summer ’17.  Despite very easy comp in Jul (down mid-singles in Jul 2016), domestic brewers’ taxpaid shipments down 690K bbls, 4.6%, estimates Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich.  That wiped out entire May-Jun gain, following rough Feb-Apr.  So yr-to-date taxpaids off 2 mil bbls, 2%, Michael estimates.  And imports just flat thru Jun, cider still soft.  All in, known US shipments off about 2 mil bbls, 1.6% yr-to-date.  Actual trend probably a skosh better including tuff-to-track taproom volume (TTB is way behind reporting volume this yr).  Gotta figure import total/Mexican volume will get a bounce sooner or later, with known Constellation gain.  But overall, growth remains elusive as hell.  Even mid-range of Michael’s projection for 2017 volume, -0.5% to flat, lookin’ like a challenge.  For 12 mos, US biz off 1.7 mil bbls, 0.8%.  Lookin’ ahead, Aug taxpaid comp is tuff (+3.6% last yr), but Sep-Oct was especially soft, -4.5%.   Meanwhile, retail scans stayed soft thru mid-Aug after modest pop for Jul 4.  Volume off 1.4% in scans for 4 wks thru mid-Aug.  On-premise retail volume continues down about 2%, according to Nielsen CGA report.  Meanwhile, spirits slowed a bit this yr, but volume still runnin’ up 2% or so.

Publishing Info

  • Year: 2017
  • Volume: 48
  • Issue #: 16
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