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INSIGHTS Express is designed for busy beer execs who want faster news and more info. Available via fax or email (your choice), INSIGHTS Express delivers subscribers breaking news, key numbers, pithy quotes, and other interesting info 2X a week. That's over 100 issues each year.

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While we’ve noted growing “skepticism” among some in public health and govt about benefits of moderate drinking, a trio of new studies supports the links.  First, a study of 70K UK adults found that compared with those who drank less than 1 day per week, drinking 3-4 days/week “was associated with significantly lower risk of diabetes.”  Men who drank regularly had a 27% lower diabetes risk, women had a 32% lower risk.  Daily drinkers also had lower diabetes risks than infrequent drinkers, as well as lifelong abstainers.  In terms of amount, “the lowest risk of diabetes was observed at 14 drinks/week in men and 9 drinks/week in women.” A second study linked moderate and heavy drinkers with cognitively healthy longevity, or “living to age 85 without cognitive impairment.”  Indeed, relative to nondrinkers, moderate and heavy drinking (up to 3 drinks/day for women and men 65 years and older, up to 4 drinks/day for men under 65 years) had significantly higher adjusted odds of survival to age 85 without cognitive impairment.”  These moderate to heavy drinkers, as well as “nearly daily drinkers” were 2-3X more likely than nondrinkers to live to “at least 85 without cognitive impairment.” A third study found…

Publishing Info

  • Year 2017
  • Volume 19
  • Issue # 150
“Now, It’s Natty Time.”  That’s tagline of new Natural Light ad that broke yesterday and will run on cable channels including ESPN, TBS, Comedy Central, etc, AB sez. It’s first Natty Light tv ad since 2009’s “Natty Caddy.”  Also follows on heels of Natty FMB extension announced last week, Natty Rush.  Ad pokes back at MC claims of less calories/carbs by noting Natty Light has “a whole one fewer calorie” (at 95) so drinker can “go ahead treat yourself” with “extra stick of gum.”   Recall too, Natty recently hooked up with model Marisa Miller who’s “name might be Miller” but who “prefers to act Natural.”  So #1 subpremium, which lost almost 1/3 of its volume 2010-2016, takin’ triple aim at higher-priced competitor, borrowing from “Miller Time” theme, calorie comparison and supermodel’s name.  And folks say beer ads lack creativity these days.   Natty Light off just 0.2% in Nielsen scans in Jul, -1.7% yr-to-date.

Publishing Info

  • Year 2017
  • Volume 19
  • Issue # 148
We keep expecting solid pop in import shipments given 6-7% gains in scan data.  It keeps not happening.  Import shipments edged up just 17K bbls, 0.5% in Jun, reports Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich based on Commerce Dept data.  Mexican shipments trend improved slightly, but only very slightly: up 2.7% in Jun.  That’s far better than 5.2% drop in Dutch shipments, 8.5% decline in Canadian shipments and big fall in Belgian shipments.  Belgian decline offset by big German gain, again suggesting lotsa Stella being shipped thru Germany.  For 6 mos, imports up an anemic 41K bbls, 0.2%.  Mexican shipments up just 54K bbls, 0.5%, way behind Constellation’s trend.  That suggests possibility of reporting/inventory issues.  Dutch shipments off 39K bbls, 1.6% for 6 mos.  Canadian shipments down 34K bbls, 4.6%.  Irish and UK shipments down 4% and 19% respectively.   While reported Belgian shipments down 223K bbls, 24%, that’s more than offset by 257K-bbl, 85% increase from Germany.  With imports so soft in Q2 (-2%) and flat for 6 mos, suggests total US shipments off about 1.4 mil bbls, 1.3% Jan-Jun.  We’ll have details in next week’s BMI.

Publishing Info

  • Year 2017
  • Volume 19
  • Issue # 148
Always somethin’ fun to spot in scan data.  What stood out this week: 4 of top 10 growth brands in latest 4-wk period thru 7/22 in Nielsen grocery store data are clear, non-beer bevs: Zima Citrus (MC), Truly Spiked & Sparkling (Boston), White Claw Hard Seltzer (Mike’s) and Spiked Seltzer (AB).  You’d be hard pressed to find even a hint of barley or hops in any of these products, not to mention a dash of color.  And yet, 3 of those brands got 0.2-0.3 share of volume and/or $$ for this period.  Meanwhile, hard sodas continue to tank, typical of FMB churn. Will seltzers and return of Zima have more staying power than sodas?  Here’s what Boston CEO Martin Roper had to say about hard seltzer category on Boston Beer’s conference call last week.  “I think the category is still emerging and is still sort of developing. And I think an important point is that retailers did not support the category as aggressively as they supported the hard soda category…. And so the category is evolving a little slower, but certainly, initially, potentially with maybe better longevity. So we don't really know what the ultimate size of the category is.”…

Publishing Info

  • Year 2017
  • Volume 19
  • Issue # 146
Domestic brewers’ taxpaid shipments up 81K bbls, 0.5% in Jun, estimates Beer Inst economist Michael Uhrich, on heels of big May gain, very tuff Feb-Apr numbers.  So 1st-half domestic shipments down 1.3 mil bbls, 1.5%.  Recall, import shipments up just 24K bbls, 0.2% thru May, including flat reported shipments from Mexico, a disconnect given Modelo portfolio’s momentum.  So known yr-to-date shipments down 1.3 mil bbls, 1.3%.  Will Jun imports pop strong and make Jan-Jun trend better?  We’ll know next week.

Publishing Info

  • Year 2017
  • Volume 19
  • Issue # 142
ABI reported strong global earnings this morning and even solid US results in terms of earnings and margins.  But its volume issues here in US got more significant last 12 weeks, latest batch of IRI data shows.  In very tuff overall mkt down 2% last 12 weeks thru Jul 16, Bud Light down 8.4% in IRI multioutlet + convenience, in period including Memorial Day and July 4.  Can’t recall ever seeing extended trends like that before.  Bud Light brand down 1.3 share of volume last 12 weeks.  Bud down 7.5% too.  Each of Coors Light and Miller Lite down 3.3-3.4%.  Top 4 brands lost 1.9 share of volume last 12 weeks. Total AB biz down 4.5%, lost 1.3 share in IRI MULC.  Constellation up 11.5% and gained 1.1 share.   But Constellation only top 7 supplier that grew last 12 weeks.  MillerCoors down 2.8%.  Heineken USA down 2%, Pabst down 5.5% and Boston down 4.3% last 12 weeks. For each of Pabst and Boston, those trends an improvement from yr-to-date.  Mike’s slowed to 3% gain for last 12 weeks, while Diageo Beer Co volume up 10.6%.

Publishing Info

  • Year 2017
  • Volume 19
  • Issue # 141
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