12-29-2011
Beer Inst economist Lester Jones has penciled in a US shipments total of 208 mil bbls, down 3 mil bbls, 1.5%, with just a few data points left to fill in shipments picture for 2011 (Dec taxpaids and Nov-Dec imports). Lester’s figure excludes about 1 mil bbls of no-alc brew each yr. That 1.5% drop about what he was saying early in 2011. Reasons for 2011 dropoff same as reasons for 2009 and 2010 losses, in Lester’s view: 1) increased competition from wine, spirits and non-alc bevs; 2) “stalled economic recovery” with 21-27 yr-old males getting especially hard hit; 3) shift to higher-end brews “that are more expensive but drive less overall volume growth.” Lester’s outlook for 2012: unfortunately, more of the same. As per Lester, there’s nothing so far on horizon that suggests any recovery in volume, and pressure on profits recently increasing too, which could lead to more stress on system and more tumultuous times in 2012.
