Almost Every Top Supplier Built Shipments in 2012, Tho MC Down and Top 2 Lost Share Again

01-14-2013

In 2012, 4 of top 5 suppliers scored shipments gains. Indeed, 8 of top 10 up, 23 of top 25, according to INSIGHTS estimates. That's quite a change. Just 3 yrs ago, each of top 6 suppliers lost volume and beer biz shed over 4 mil bbls. In 2010, 4 of top 5 declined while industry lost another 1.5 mil bbls. And 2011 still down. Yet, looks like industry up over 3.5 mil bbls in 2012, about 1.7%, tho final figures not yet in. Taxpaid shipments up 1%+, taxfree biz (exports, military, etc) up sharply and imports managed modest gain, despite shift of several sizable once-imported brands to US production.

AB scored 1st gain since 2008 purchase by InBev, thanks to success of Bud Light Platinum/Lime-A-Rita and improved 2d half shipments. Up estimated 600,000 bbls 0.6%. Mkt share slipped another half-point or so, tho. AB still above 46 share, but it had peaked at 49.6 back in 2003. And despite 2012 gain, AB still down almost 8 mil bbls since 2008. MillerCoors was sole big supplier to lose significant volume in 2012. Down another 1 mil bbls, 1.8%, with 2d half significantly softer than 1st 6 mos. Since 2008, when JV formed, MC down almost 6 mil bbls, 9%. MC lost another 0.8-0.9 share in 2012. Slipped to about 27.4 share, losing 2 full share since JV formed. Since 2008, top 2 lost nearly 5 share.

Crown posted 3d-straight gain. Slowed a bit in 4th qtr. And it lost St Pauli biz for 2d half. But Crown still up 400,000 bbls, 3.5%. Heineken USA matched that bbls gain, we estimate, up 5% and got back to 4 share. But while Crown hit new peak volume, HUSA still about 800,000 bbls, 9% below 2008 peak. Pabst up for 2d-straight yr, +250,000 bbls, 5%, following tiny gain in 2011. Yuengling down in Q4 as it went against huge rollout in Oh in 2011. But Yuengling still up 270,000 bbls, 10.6% for the yr to 2.8 mil bbls. Then too,

looks like Yuengling passed Diageo Guinness USA and NAB in 2012. Grabbed #6 spot. Look how close #6-#8 are: each has 1.3 share and separated by less than 100,000 bbls, at least in these preliminary estimates. NAB up slightly, DGUSA down slightly in 2012. Each got help from FMBs: Seagrams line for NAB and pouches for DGUSA. Looks too like DGUSA slipped to #9 spot among suppliers. As well as Diageo has done in spirits, over last 10 yrs its malt bev biz shrunk by almost 1 mil bbls, 27% (about half of that was loss of Bass brand). During same period Yuengling picked up 1.6 mil bbls, Boston 1.4 mil bbls.

Boston estimate is complicated. Recall, in early Dec Boston boosted depletions guidance for 2012 to +11-13%. But didn't change shipments guidance from +7-10%. Note too, Boston's 2012 number will include pretty significant volume of Angry Orchard, a cider, not a malt bev. Its malt bev # will be lower than total shipments, tho not likely to be disclosed. Finally, Mike's up mid-single digits, we estimate, nearing 1.5-mil-bbl mark. All Others trend always heavily dependent on final shipments figure. But it will be another healthy gain, driven by continued double-digit increase for craft segment. Indeed, lotsa top craft brewers spoke towards end of yr of healthy double-digit gains.