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This is a very different picture than what the US beer biz has become accustomed to in the ABI era. AB gained the most share of beer shipments volume (+0.4) thru 1st half after snagging nearly 1 full share in Q2. Co maintained flattish volume vs yr ago for the qtr but still saw shipments slip nearly 4% YTD thru Jun. Each of the next 5 top brewers lost share of beer in Q2, including Constellation, which slipped more than 3% for the quarter and thru 1st half, INSIGHTS estimates. Mark Anthony and Boston malt bevs slipped mid singles while HUSA dropped high-singles. Tho for 1st half, Constellation beer still gained 0.3 share. But AB gained more share than STZ in first half. That hasn't happened since 2009, year one of the ABI era. Mark Anthony gained about 0.1 share and Boston Beer's beer/malt share up a bit thru 1st half. MC shipped well ahead of STRs in Q2 but still shed most share of any brewer thru 1st half. All other brewers outside the top 6 collectively lost share in Q2 as well, but gained slight share YTD thru Jun. Tuff drops from Pabst, Yuengling, FIFCO USA and Kirin-Lion, Tilray and Monster, among others in this group, wiped out better trends from Diageo Beer Co and other select smaller cos. That's all against the backdrop of what's shaping up to be another tuff year for US beer. Total beer shipments declined 3% in Q2 including taxpaids down just 1.7%, outperforming imports (-5%). Overall, that's a notable improvement vs Q1, but leaves industry volume down nearly 5%, 5 mil bbls thru 1st half of 2025 with taxpaids down 5.1%, imported beer/FMBs down 4.6%, hard cider down 2-3% and non-alc beer the lone bucket of growth, up more than 20%. Even if the industry were flat in 2d half, it would be down almost 3% for the year.Big difference vs previous yrs: industry is no longer making up for volume losses with price increases. CPI for beer away from home rose just 1.2% YTD thru Jun including up just 0.3% in Jun, +0.6% in May. Prices for beer up just 0.3% in Jul too. For 4 mos in a row, spirits CPI away from home outpaced beer, another key shift in alc bev dynamics. But beer prices still up a bit more than spirits YTD, +1.1% vs +0.7% thru Jul.Top-3 publicly traded beer cos in North America/Americas region, AB, MC and STZ, collectively saw net revs decline nearly 4%, shedding more than $620 mil in the first half of 2025 including AB down 3.3%, -$249 mil, MC down 7.1%, -$335 mil and Constellation beer down 0.9%, -$37 mil (for running 6 mos thru May 2025). Declines were tuffer in US-only and factoring out non-beer, but not as bad for MC when factoring out impact from lost contract biz. Either way, all signs point to US beer revenue down in the first half all-channel.Getting Better but Tuffer than Expected Second Half to Come? While the beer industry is lapping easier comps thruout the 2d half, multiple brewers are bracing for a tuffer than expected 2d half too. Some mkts saw noticeably better July trends across the country. But in tracked off-prem channels, beer volume still dipped 3.8% for latest 4 wks thru Aug 3, per natl Circana multi-outlet + convenience data. Top brewer dynamics showed early signs of shifting in Jul scans too as Constellation volume trend was nearly 2x better than AB and returned to top share gainer for the mo, per separate NIQ off-prem data. AB no longer getting as big a boost from Busch Light Apple/Lime. Yet Constellation volume was still down for 4 wks. MC's own brand shipments trend was ahead of depletions in Q2 amid softer industry (see below for more detail). After Boston built inventory for Sun Cruiser and Twisted Tea thru 1st half, growing overall $$ and volume (including spirits biz), co's bracing for a big double-digit drop in Q3. With plenty more puts and takes, net-net it remains unclear how beer biz will lap easier comps thruout the 2d half.

AB Drove Improved Industry STWs in Q2; Most Top Cos Lost Share; Beer Still -5% Thru 1st Half

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