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The much-discussed moderation in alcohol consumption among US adults may only be modest, but appears to be widespread across age groups, results of annual Monitoring the Future study suggest. Steady declines in the prevalence of any past-month drinking continue to show up among adults just below and just over the legal drinking age. But such regular consumption seems to be slightly less common than it has been among older adults as well. And the recent pullback is visible whether looking at results by age bracket or by cohort, suggesting not only changes from generation to generation, but changes in behavior among the same individuals who choose to drink less frequently or stop entirely. Slight Short-Term Declines Compound Sharp Long-Term Drops in Underage Drinking Ongoing declines in teen drinking have now become historic lows in drinking among college-aged adults, too. The prevalence of any alcohol consumption in the past month by 18 year olds fell another couple of percentage points to below 22% in 2024, a one-year drop of almost 11% and now down by over half in the last 20 years. Self-reported recent drinking by 19-20 year olds fell by a third since 2014, including a 7% drop in 2024 alone. Separate results suggest a much sharper drop in consumption among folks just out of high school but who are not attending college, down 9 points to about 43% in 2024. But just 52% of college students said they drank at all in the past month, too, the lowest level researchers behind the MTF surveys have tracked since starting the project in 1979. In those days, when it was legal to drink at 18, around 80% of college students drank. The figure fell below 3/4 in the early 1990s and hovered around 2/3 from 1995 until the early 2010s. Note too that drinking dropped more sharply among college-aged young men than young women. In 2024, slightly less than half of male respondents 1-4 years out of high school reported any past-month drinking, compared to 55% of female respondents of the same age.Consumption Still Picking Up Among 20-Somethings, But Off Slightly in Recent Years Importantly, drinking returns much closer to historic levels after folks turn 21. Just over 61% of 21-22 year olds reported any past-month drinking, MTF results shows. That's still down 10-15% from 10-20 years ago, but nowhere near the huge drops seen among underage Americans. And consumption jumps to around 2/3 of older 20-somethings, again suggesting delayed onset among members of Gen Z. Historically, folks in their early 20s were reliably the most likely to drink. That's no longer true. But note too that prevalence of consumption among 25-26 and 29-30 year olds hasn't been especially consistent, mostly landing somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4; recent results are no different.That said, mid-aged adults appear to be starting to cut back as well, MTF results show. That's most notable among folks in their 30s and 40s, but is less consistent among older adults. In fact, the prevalence of any past-month drinking actually ticked up a touch among adults age 55 in 2024 surveys. Taken together, these results point to merely a modest moderation in the number of adults who drink alcohol at least monthly amid much sharper declines in underage consumption.Methodology Matters; Noticeable Drops within Cohorts Recently Keep in mind, the structure and methodology of MTF likely impacts results. In key respects, survey respondents may not look exactly like the total US population. Researchers at the University of Michigan who run the project recruit respondents in high school and follow them into adulthood. Folks who continue to respond to the surveys well into adulthood may differ more and more from the general population. Plus, the oldest MTF cohorts are just now in their 60s, when consumption often begins to taper off; other surveys include older adults who are generally less likely to drink. Taken together, these factors suggest that the survey could overestimate the prevalence of alcohol consumption.But MTF's cohort structure means you can also follow how consumption changes for respondents across their lifespan. Viewing results in this way highlights the later onset of consumption among respondents who turned 18 in the last decade or so, for instance. But it also confirms the recent slight drop off in drinking across age groups.Over age 30, researchers reach out to cohorts to ask about consumption habits only every five years. In 2024 results, prevalence of past-month consumption fell at least 5% for every cohort since the last time they were asked. Such sizable drops are relatively rare, as consumption among cohorts more commonly shifts by 2-3% up or down. Further, prevalence fell by 8.5-10% among 35, 40 and 45 year olds compared to five years ago. And reconsider the cohort who was 18 in 1987 and 55 in 2024. As the above table shows, the 66.5% who reported any past month drinking was larger than earlier cohorts at age 55. But this cohort had been more likely to drink than others. So about 8% of this particular cohort who drank monthly in 2019 changed their behavior by 2024.Binge Drinking Down Big in Young Adults; Alternatives Way Up Among Older Adults Above shifts in any alcohol consumption are also visible in MTF results by larger age brackets, ages 19-30 and 35-50. But other behaviors changed even more. Encouragingly, reports of any binge drinking (4-5+ drinks at a time) within the past two weeks declined considerably among young adults over the last decade, down by over 20% in 10 years and 7% in one year. Historically, the behavior was more common among 20-somethings and tapered off in older adults. But in 2024, 19-30 and 35-50 year olds were about as likely to report recent binge drinking. Over the long term, cannabis use increased among adults in each age bracket, but that growth leveled off recently. Between 2014 and 2024, the prevalence of any cannabis use in the past month jumped 10 points in each age group, from about 19% to 29% of 19-30 year olds and from about 9% to 19% of 35-50 year olds. But prevalence among each group held roughly even compared to 2023.Use of psychedelics or hallucinogens continues to grow, however. A decade ago, fewer than 5% of younger adults dabbled in psychedelics (excluding LSD, including psilocybin, PCP or peyote) at least once in the past year. And their use was extremely rare among older adults, reported by just 0.6% of 35-50 year olds. Both those figures increased by about 5 points in the last 10 years, more than doubling to almost 10% of younger adults and expanding by almost 9x to over 5% of mid-age adults.Cheers,References1 Patrick, ME, et al, "Monitoring the Future, Panel Study Annual Report: National data on substance use among adults ages 19 to 65, 1976-2024," University of Michigan Institute for Social Research, 2025

Pullback in Drinking Picked Up by Monitoring the Future, Too; Rise of Alternatives

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