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To paraphrase Leo Tolstoy, all happy breweries are alike; each unhappy brewery is unhappy in its own way. That's the sense we get after reading dozens of versions of the same article, which pops up at least weekly in publications across not just the country but the world, with headlines like "Is Colorado's craft brew industry on the ropes?" or "People are drinking less. Can Minnesota's 'Craft Beer Capital' adapt?" or "Are evolving tastes and high costs killing Sacramento breweries? Experts weigh in." Some publications don't even bother to regionalize or equivocate their concerns: "The Craft Beer Industry is Definitely Flat," blares one headline, while another asks "Can craft beer survive its awkward adolescence?" Almost without fail, each piece will cite the same five or six pain points facing the industry, emphasizing each in different measure depending on which brewery they're citing. These pain points are: Lifestyle changes among Gen Z; the rise of legal cannabis/cannabevs/NA beers; the long tail of Covid-induced economic and social changes among consumers; the uncertain tariff landscape; inflation, specifically tied to rising rents; and, probably most importantly, the aging consumer base for the once-booming craft industry. Long story short, the same people who used to line up for new craft releases have largely moved to the suburbs and, if they're inclined to visit a brewery, it's to spend a relaxed afternoon with their families. "People don't go into the taproom and drink like they used to," as Kevin Gearhardt, co-founder of Fort Collins, CO's Maxline Brewing put plainly in a Jul interview with The Coloradoan."Normal Markets Suck" BA prexy Bart Watson was blunt about the challenges facing the industry at this year's Virginia Craft Beer Cup, reported Richmond BizSense, reprising a baseball-themed analogy he used in BA's "Ten Points and Predictions" webinar late last yr. "We were in the 'Field of Dreams' era," he said of the pre-pandemic boom days, when "'If you build it, they will come&hellip; We have now entered the 'Moneyball' era, where you are all small market players, looking for every little edge you can and trying to be as efficient as possible." While Bart cautioned that "this doesn't mean a bubble is bursting, or that craft beer is going anywhere&hellip; we have returned to a 'normal market.' And unfortunately, if you take economics 101, you will learn that normal markets suck."A large number of bizzes have found themselves on the business end of this transition, leading to the oft-repeated statistic that more breweries closed than opened in 2024. Peter Hoey, owner of Sacramento's Urban Roots and a 25-yr craft veteran, told the Sac Bee that the realities of the 'normal market' are weeding out some of the cos that were simply riding the wave: "We've had insane levels of growth in the craft beer industry, so this is the first time a lot of people that opened during this time have seen a slow period." Or, as Tanzi Cannon-Eckerle, majority owner of MA's Brew Practioners, put it to BusinessWest.com in Aug, "there's fewer butts in seats.""There's a Point at Which You Bump Up Against Your Own Weaknesses" While macroeconomic changes are plainly dragging the industry, there's some evidence that breweries that have been operating shrewdly are faring better than those that were founded as passion projects, many of which are closing up shop at the sticker shock associated with renewing 5- and 10-yr leases. Another Fort Collins brewer, Mythmaker's Tom Moseman, put it succinctly: "Their loans are done and they're just over it."Across the pond, Lost & Grounded co-founder Alex Troncoso told the FT that his biz is up 400% since the pandemic, "but that wouldn't happen without funding, servicing our debts and running the company properly." That's in marked contrast to that of BrewDog, whose owners cashed out with a PE deal in 2017 that has subsequently seen co's debt obligations nearly swallow it whole (see Jul 21 issue). But it's just as true for smaller brewers on both sides of the Atlantic who were riding a wave that has definitively crashed.All that said, people are still drinking craft beer, and plenty of it; the market still exists, and many breweries and brands are consolidating to make ends meet. "As a small brewer, it can be really fun to do it all, but there's a point at which you bump up against your own weaknesses," Charlie Berger, the chief development officer for CO for new conglomerate Wilding Brands, acknowledged to Denver Gazette. Wilding, which oversees brands including Denver Beer, Great Divide and Station 26, is giving formerly independent brewers the resources they need to survive in the maturing industry: "Now, we have great marketing people doing marketing, great sales people doing sales, [and] great accounting people doing accounting.""If You Want Your Brewery to Survive, You've Got to Go Visit Them" The breweries opening into this environment know the niche into which they're trying to fit. As Bob Galligan, director of gov and industry relations at the Minnesota Craft Brewers Guild, told the Duluth News Tribune, "taprooms are pretty much the last remaining third spaces in the United States. Coffee shops are basically WeWorks at this point." In SoCal, Eric Fowler, the exec director of the San Diego Brewers Guild, is opening the Good Pressure Brewing Co after serving as taproom lead at Stone Brewing, telling San Diego Magazine - contra the broader view - that "there's still a lot of opportunity there, especially for underserved neighborhoods&hellip; I want somebody like my mom to be able to come in and feel comfortable, and be comfortable ordering, and just be focused on themselves and having a good time.""It's just not enough to hang out your shingle and say you're a brewery," as Brew Practioners' Tanzi put it, which has led to bizzes finding creative ways to lure new customers. You can barely go a week without reading about how Imaginary Brewery X in State Z is making itself more kid- and/or family-friendly to become a community hub, but there are other cos out there really exploring the studio space, so to speak. In Ann Arbor, MI, hear.say is having a strong first full year as a combo brewery/improv theater (see May 5 issue), while in Pittsburgh, Grist House has completed a long-term project to open inside a Cold War-era missile site (see Sep 3 issue).But as Shawnee Adelson, exec director of the Colorado Brewers Guild notes, lamentations over the changing craft landscape can't overcome a slowdown in foot traffic. The key is, as noted above, "butts in seats." And with margins as thin as they are, it's incumbent on customers to help their favorite cos stay in business: "If you want your brewery to survive, you've got to go visit them. You can't be sad they closed if you haven't been there in a year."

"Normal Markets Suck": The Many Similar Stories of Craft's Growing Pains

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