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Memorial Day thru July 4 were no great shakes, and last licks of summer didn't look much better. Hopes for a late summer surge fell flat against easy yr-ago comps, as total beer dollars dropped 2.5% and volume slid 4.1% for 12 wks thru Sep 7 in Circana multi-outlet + convenience scans. Softer than same period last yr, when dollars slipped to -2% and volume dropped ~4% for 12 wks thru 9/8/24 vs prior yr. A slight improvement vs 12 wks thru July 13, 2025, at least. Yet yr-to-date trends settling into increasingly well-trodden territory: dollars down about 3% and volume off ~4.5%. Odds of substantial improvement getting slimmer in 2025, now more than 2/3 of the way thru. Mich Ultra Milestone: Passed Bud Light as Top Volume Brand YTD This yr's competitive dynamics by now more familiar, as same brands and segments continue to dominate gains/losses. But there's a new #1 brand by off-premise volume in YTD Circana scans. Mich Ultra officially surpassed Bud Light at 85 mil cases YTD vs Bud Light's 84.6 mil. Ultra (+4.4%) gained 0.7 share of industry volume to 8.5 and counting, whereas Bud Light (-9.9%) dropped 0.5 share to 8.46.Superpremium, NAs and Cider the Only Segment Growth YTD; FMB Volume Down 7% for 4 Wks Segment trends in some ways far different than years past. Import volume down 4.2% but gaining slight share. Domestic premiums still shedding the most share (-0.9) and slid 7.3%, tho superpremiums pickin' up much of the slack, +0.8 share with volume up 3.1%. NAs and subpremiums gaining ground, up 0.3 and 0.2 pts respectively. Tho non-alc volume grew 24.2% vs subpremiums -3.5%. Aside from superpremiums and NAs, only other segment to grow volume YTD was cider, +0.7%. Malt-based seltzers (-8%), craft (-6%) and FMBs (-4%) each lost share. But FMBs posted steepest volume declines of any segment over the last mo. Down 7.3% for 4 wks, below domestic premiums at -7.0%.AB Top Volume Share Gainer; STZ Top $$ Share Gainer; Diageo Beer Only Top 10 Co to Grow Sales On supplier side, AB volume down 3.4% yr-to-date as STZ dropped 3%. But both outpaced broader beer and gained share. AB volume up 0.4 pts to 37.4 share in these scans. Constellation +0.2 pts to 16.1 share. And MC slipped nearly 7% YTD, shedding 0.6 share to 21.7. No other top supplier moved more than 0.1 volume share in either direction. (STZ fared best of the big 3 by dollars, +0.4 share pts vs AB +0.2 YTD. Constellation $$ share still well ahead of MC in scans at 19.9 vs 17.6.)Diageo remains the only top 10 supplier to grow YTD volume, albeit up just 0.3%. Only 3 others grew in the top 25: Athletic (+23.5%), Happy Dad (+14.7%) and Geloso (+6.6%). Mark Anthony picked up slight share with volume down ~3%. But other top suppliers mostly down mid to high singles, including Boston Beer (-7.7%), HUSA (-8.7%), Kirin-Lion (-5%), Pabst (-9.1%) and Yuengling (-7.1%). Against that backdrop, down 3% almost feels like up these days.Mich Ultra/Busch Light Growth Doesn't Offset Bud Light Case Drops; Other Top Brand Dynamics The dichotomy between Mich Ultra and Bud Light continues to dictate much of AB's direction. Bud Light still shed by far the most volume in the industry as Mich Ultra snagged the most. Gains from Busch Light (volume +3.8%, 0.4 pts) and incremental Busch Light Apple (+0.2 pts) bumped AB into better stead, as Mich Ultra and those 2 brands added the most cases of any beer brands in YTD scans. And yet, they still couldn't offset Bud Light's case declines. Bud Light dropped 9.3 mil cases yr-to-date vs those 3 brands collectively up 7.2 mil.Coors Banquet and Pacifico led other top volume gainers, each up ~0.2 share. Mich Ultra Zero, Corona Sunbrew, Corona Familiar and Victoria also up 0.1 share, as Ultra Zero and Sunbrew each added over 1 mil cases YTD. Tho heading into colder mos, tuff sledding continues for other top brands. Modelo Especial volume -4.4%, Coors Light -6.4%, Miller Lite -7.4%, Corona Extra -7.9%, Bud -7.8%, Natty Light -5.5%, Keystone Light and Miller High Life each down 7.1%, with Busch (-11%) and Heineken (-10%) down double digits.If Mich Ultra aims to catch Modelo Especial as the #1 brand by $$, it may still be a while. Even with YTD dollar sales down 2.3%, Especial remains the clear leader at 9.5 share of industry $$ vs Ultra's 8.1. (Bud Light down to 6.9.) Mich Ultra grew 4.7%, $112.5 mil YTD compared to Modelo Especial's nearly $70 mil decline. Yet with Especial YTD $$ sales at $2.9 bil and Ultra at ~$2.5 bil, a gap of more than $430 mil remains between 'em.

Beer Sales Limped Thru Labor Day Scans Despite Easy Summer Comps; Mich Ultra New #1 Brand by Volume

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