Beer Marketer's Insights - Beer Shipments Down Nearly 5% with CPI +1.1% Thru 9 Mos; Top 3 Down ~5 Mil Bbls but AB Top Share Gainer by Far

Beer shipments remained soft but improved in Q3, albeit with the benefit of an extra selling day in Sep boosting trend for brewers. US beer/FMB/cider shipments dipped 4.3% in Q3, improving to -4.7% YTD thru Sep, INSIGHTS estimates. That's still over 2 mil bbls shed in Q3 and a 7-mil-bbl decline for the year while CPI for beer away from home slowed to +1.1% YTD, suggesting beer volume and revenue are down in 2025 YTD. With beer volume down steeper in Oct scans and NBWA's Beer Purchaser's Index posting its lowest reading yet in Oct, trend could get worse again before it looks any better. US beer volume is currently on track to hit its lowest output since the mid 80s, shedding around 30 mil bbls since inflated output in 2021. But volume trend in 2025 ain't as bad some folks feared, currently outpacing 2023 (-5.2%). US-based brewers' shipments to wholesalers (taxpaids) were down just 3.5% while imports slipped ~8% in Q3, per BI reports, while hard cider improved and non-alc beer is still rockin' up double digits off a small base. Taxpaids have outpaced imports every mo since Mar this yr, now outperforming imports YTD too. That's a major shift in US beer: if it holds, it'll be the first time taxpaids outperformed imports since 2009. Whether it's a momentary blip driven by various cyclical headwinds or something more remains a key question heading into 2026. (Editor's note: keep in mind that Beer Inst is currently estimating Aug-Sep import trends since typical US Dept of Commerce report on imports hasn't been published since govt shutdown). Top 3 Brewers Down 5 Mil Bbls Thru 9 Mos; AB Gaining 0.4 Share; STZ Shipments Lagging STRs When the top 3 brewers in the country, AB, MC and Constellation (STZ), are all declining on $$ and volume, it's likely to be a tuffer year on industry volume. That's the case thru 9 mos as AB, MC and STZ collectively shed ~5 mil bbls of beer thru 9 mos with MC off 2 mil bbls, AB down 1.8 mil bbls and STZ down 1.1 mil bbls, INSIGHTS estimates. Yet AB continues to outpace the rest of the pack and grab the most share of US beer volume by far. Even as AB beer shipments declined ~3.5% YTD, that amounts to a 0.4-pt share gain, INSIGHTS figures. Keep in mind, AB trend is ~0.5 pts better excluding exports and including RTD spirits brands (see below).Constellation actually lost share of beer shipments volume in its latest qtr, taking its medicine as it looks to better align with STRs in the back half of its fiscal yr. So Constellation beer shipments are holding flattish share of US beer YTD thru Sep, down 4.6%. But shipments volume began to improve in Sep and STRs are still outperforming shipments by over 2 pts for the calendar year, suggesting shipments could improve by yr-end.Molson Coors took the tuffest hit of the top 3 with US shipments down more than 6% YTD thru Sep (excluding contract brewing losses from Pabst). That amounts to a 0.3-pt share loss for the year, INSIGHTS estimates. But STRs gradually improving from qtr to qtr.Mark Anthony Top Trend Among Top 6 YTD; SAM & HUSA Steepest Beer/Malt Losses in Q3 Mark Anthony shipments dipped at a steady rate in Q3, bringing shipments down 3.4% to 6.025 mil bbls YTD. That's still best YTD trend among top 6 suppliers (shown in the chart above). Boston Beer and Heineken shipments each took a double-digit turn in Q3, dragging beer/malt bev volume down 8% and 11% for the year, INSIGHTS estimates. Yet Boston's shipments are down just 3.7% to 5.776 mil bbls YTD including strong incremental growth from Sun Cruiser.Diageo Beer Co & Series of Smaller Suppliers Leading All Others' Improvement Below the top 6 suppliers, all others collectively grew slightly in Q3, improving to down 4% thru 9 mos, our estimates suggest. Diageo Beer Co is the largest co leading that group to a better trend, reporting yesterday that its net sales grew 9.2% in calendar Q3, a notable acceleration vs 1st half. Suggests DBC USA volume is up ~4% YTD thru Sep. Then too, fast-paced growth from smaller suppliers/brands like Garage Beer, BeatBox malt-based versions and Jumex Hard Nectar, plus gains from more established cos like Athletic Brewing and Happy Dad continue to prop up All Others totals too.

Beer Shipments Down Nearly 5% with CPI +1.1% Thru 9 Mos; Top 3 Down ~5 Mil Bbls but AB Top Share Gainer by Far

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