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AB has improved its volume and especially share performance this yr. And it's putting more wins on board in more directions than in any recent yr. It has top 2 share gaining brands in industry, top 2 innovations and its Cutwater brand is on fire. Yet thru Sep, its results remain mixed. Volume is still down 3% in a tuff industry, including boost from fast-growing RTD spirits. Revs are down 1.2% and EBITDA up just 1% for 9 mos. It has recovered none of the volume and little of the over $1 bil earnings drop it suffered in the US in 2023. While its 2025 #s are a notable improvement, it's not up. The "massive upside" in US that global ceo Michel Doukeris talked about on ABI's first quarter conference call hasn't yet materialized. Four AB Brands Gained 1.4 Share; Top Innovations; Rest of AB Portfolio Lost 1 Share Still, AB is gaining more mkt share of volume than any other brewer in scans too in 2025 (tho #3 in $$ share gain). It's up 0.37 share in Circana multi-outlet + convenience yr-to-date thru Oct 5. Michelob Ultra and Busch Light are the top 2 share-gaining brands, as AB often notes. Up 0.7 share and 0.4 share respectively or 1.1 share between them. Busch Light Apple and Mich Ultra Zero are 2 top innovations in beer. They total 0.3 share in Circana. But that means the rest of AB's malt bev portfolio is down 1 full share point.Ultra and Busch Light 36 Share of AB Volume in Scans; Bud Light and Bud 32.5 Share Michelob Ultra and Busch Light are 36 share of AB volume, now much bigger than Bud Light and Bud combined. Ultra and Busch Light gained 5.8 mil cases, 4% between them in Circana MULC YTD. Busch Light Apple and Michelob Ultra Zero add another 3 mil cases. But rest of AB's portfolio down 24.1 mil cases, almost 9% in scan data, including Bud Light alone down 10.4 mil cases, 10% and Bud down 3.6 mil cases, 8%. While those 2 big brands are almost one third of AB's biz, AB also has many other declining brands, including Natty Light down 2.2 mil cases, Busch down 1.8 mil cases, Busch Light Peach down 1.5 mil cases.Cutwater Emerges As a Power Spirits Brand; Mich Ultra Zero #2 NA AB has excelled in 2 other growth areas in 2025: RTDs and NAs. AB is getting a big lift in 2025 from its Beyond Beer brands, especially Cutwater. Beyond Beer portfolio up in mid-forties in Q3 and Cutwater more than doubled. Cutwater is now a top 10 spirits brand and gained more share than any other spirits brands in Aug and Sep, according to AB. Cutwater trend alone could have added close to 1 point to Q3 AB revs, INSIGHTS figures. Its spirits biz about 3% of revs for 12 weeks.Cutwater became a viral phenom as a higher ABV product. Yet AB also turned around its non-alcoholic portfolio big time, with intro of Michelob Ultra Zero, after losing share of fast-growing segment for yrs. Mich Ultra Zero became the #2 NA brand in its intro yr and captured 54% of the growth in the NA segment yr-to-date in 2025, according to Circana, 65% for 12 weeks. AB has 3 of top 5 NA brands and is #1 with a 34 share.AB's Undaunted Ambition; Can Phorm Energy Take Off Too? For all the volume AB has lost in the US since formation of Anheuser Busch InBev in 2008 (well over 40 mil bbls), it is still investing massively in this mkt and continues to have bold ambitions. Given its lengthening string of successes this yr, if anything, those ambitions have increased. AB will invest more again in 2026, it sez. And while for most part innovation is de-emphasized, it will invest behind Phorm Energy in big, growing energy segment. Recall, AB system built both Monster and Ghost, only to lose those brands as cos did deals with Coke and KDP respectively. But Phorm Energy is finally an energy drink where "we are the majority owners," said ABI ceo Michel Doukeris on Q3 conference call. Phorm Energy had "a great launch" but "just the beginning." As majority owner, AB can provide "commitment" and "investment" long-term.Remaking Its Distribution System Causes Friction But Distribs Like 2026 Plans Another aspect of AB's ambition in 2025 is an intensified effort to remake its distribution system, including stepped-up consolidation, some forced sales and heightened scrutiny of its network's compliance with equity agreement. In 2025, more AB deals by large wine and spirits wholesalers, such as Southern Glazer's Wine and Spirits, which just closed on AB's NYC branch, or private equity/family office like Redwood, which closed on similarly-sized OH Eagle in Sep (Redwood is AB's largest independent distrib). AB also forcing numerous smaller distribs to sell, after finding they sold old Busch Light Peach. INSIGHTS has already tracked 12-13 deals in AB system in 2025 and knows of about a dozen more reportedly in works, tho not all will come to fruition in 2025. While many aspects of this effort have created friction and unease with its distribs, the flip side is that distribs INSIGHTS has talked to are more upbeat about AB's 2026 plans than at any time in yrs. A curious dichotomy.ABI's Unmatched Global Might; Taking Champions League; Deleveraging; "Achilles Heel" While ABI's reported revs up 1.8% organically for 9 mos to $44.9 bil, its EBITDA up 5.8% organically to $15.7 bil. Its revs almost 2x as big as #2 global brewer Heineken, but its earnings 3-4x as big. And as ABI continues to pay down debt, 9 yrs after its $100+ bil deal to buy SABMiller, it will finally get under 3x debt to EBITDA. That will give it increased financial flexibility to spend big wherever it thinks it can gain the most or inflict competitive damage. One can infer both in its huge pending deal to sponsor Champions League, which Heineken previously sponsored for 30 yrs and touted as one of its marquee sponsorships. AB will spend roughly $232 mil per yr for 6 yrs, or $1.4 bil, an increase of 66% from what Heineken is paying, per reports. Asked about this development, HSBC's Carlos Laboy told INSIGHTS: "A delevered ABI is a very dangerous machine for its competitors." Yet ABI still struggles with organic growth, which Bernstein analyst Trevor Stirling called ABI's "Achilles Heel." Consumer Edge's Connor Rattigan noted that ABI expanded margins but missed volume expectations in 3 of 5 regions in latest qtr. He added that "the market continues to place a premium on volume progress for CPGs&hellip;. To unlock a higher multiple, ABI must convince the market it can deliver sustained balanced top line growth (including volume growth) while continuing to expand its margins."

AB Putting More Wins on Board, Gaining Share, But Still Down 3% Thru Sep 2025

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