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US Beer Volume Down ~5% in 2025; Dollars are Soft This Yr Too; Outpacing Core Wine & Spirits US beer posted one of its tuffest years on record thru most of 2025. Maybe not quite as tuff as 2023 (-5.2%) but shipments of beer, FMBs, hard cider and non-alc beer slipped 5% YTD thru Oct, INSIGHTS estimates, and trends didn't improve much in Nov tracked channels. Suggests US beer could slip to ~183 mil bbls for the full yr, shedding over 10 mil bbls vs yr ago. That's on track for the lowest output since 1985. Volume's down ~24 mil bbls, nearly 12% since 2019 (pre-Covid), including 4 consecutive down yrs following a couple yrs of inflated gains in 2021-2022. But in 2022-2024, pricing increases and trade-up made up for the volume losses on the topline revenue trends. That's no longer the case in 2025 as Consumer Price Index for beer away from home rose just ~1% this year, suggesting US beer revenue is down nearly 4%. Beer's not the only alc bev category feeling the pain lately. US depletions for core spirits (ex RTDs) were down 6% YTD thru Sep and wine ex-RTDs dropped 8.5%, per SipSource. Spirits CPI away from home rose just 0.9% YTD and wine prices were down 1.2%. Wine & spirits RTDs are clearly sourcing from each category to varying degrees, still rockin' up strong double digits this yr. Broader Pressures on Alcohol Consumption in US, Declining Per Capita Consumption All signs point to 3d yr in a row of declines across the US alc bev biz. Declines are even steeper on an absolute alcohol basis, now down for 4th yr in a row, we estimate. By our count, avg consumption by 21+ adults slipped to lowest level seen since early 2000s in 2024 and fell even further in 2025. Headlines about health harms and celebrity sobriety stories still get lotsa play, often alongside comments about encroachment of cannabis and other alternative intoxicants. Concerns about Gen Z may be overblown, but surveys show a clear delay in the age they take up drinking. And this yr's Gallup poll found just 54% of adults aged 18+ say they drink, a historic low.Constellation, the Growth Co of the Last Decade-Plus, Is Declining; Imports are Losing Share One of the biggest changes this yr was that Constellation beer division's remarkable growth run came to an abrupt halt in 2025, amid tuff economic conditions and increased pressure from Trump administration on deportations, among other factors. Lead brands Modelo Especial and Corona Extra, plus Modelo Chelada family declined this yr, offsetting other growth brands. Since STZ is 3/4 of imports in the US on its own, other top importers like Heineken remain soft, and other brands like Peroni and Labatt shifted to US production, imports are declining and losing share of US beer volume for the first time since 2009. The abrupt slowdown in Constellation's sales led co to reduce its guidance mid-yr. Constellation hadda "change the playbook," or at least "evolve" it, Constellation beer prexy Jim Sabia and ceo Bill Newlands commented late this yr, planning to add more SKUs and increasingly play in mainstream pricing tiers (120 index to light lagers or lower) where 63% of the volume is consumed.AB Gaining Vol Share for the 1st Time in ABI Era, Still Down; Mich Ultra #1 Beer by Volume in the US; Closed 3 Facilities With Constellation down, that leaves each of the top 3 brewers &mdash; AB, MC, STZ &mdash; losing volume vs yr ago in 2025. But major shift thruout 2025 has been AB trending best of that bunch, and gaining the most share of total beer volume. Bud Light is still declining 10% in 2025, on top of 20+% decline in 2023 and low-double-digit drop in 2024. Yet Michelob Ultra is now the largest beer brand by volume in tracked off-prem channels, and is likely to surpass both Bud Light and Modelo Especial all-channel for the full yr. Mich Ultra and Busch Light remain the top 2 growth brands by volume this yr and Cutwater growth surged since late summer. AB was the top innovation co by far this yr with Mich Ultra Zero, plus Busch Light Apple and Lime leading the way, and co's acquisition of BeatBox will boost flavored alc bev presence significantly in 2026 and beyond. Net-net, a lot more going right for AB, but drags from Bud Light, Bud, Natty, Stella, and beyond still weighed sales down for the year. And after kicking the cans down the road for many yrs, AB closed 3 brewing facilities (see above).RNDC Implosion in CA; Reyes Now a Top 10 Spirits Distrib; Major Pick-Ups in CA & Beyond; SGWS Buys AB in NYC 2025 was a year of truly shocking developments in alc bev distribution. None more so than RNDC, the 2d largest wine & spirits wholesaler in the country, pulling the plug on its once huge biz in California after losing several key brands earlier in the year. Tito's, Brown-Forman and Gallo's High Noon moved to Reyes, AB moved Cutwater from RNDC to Southern, and by Jun, RNDC announced to employees its plans to leave altogether. With these big brands on top of Sazerac and others, Reyes became a top 10 spirits distrib in less than 3 yrs. But across the country, the flip side of RNDC's implosion and Reyes' ascension as a spirits distrib: largest wine and spirts distrib Southern Glazer's Wine and Spirits bought AB's branch in New York City. That sent shock waves thru AB system. SGWS is one of several liquor distribs selling AB brands in Northeast.AB Aggressively Seeking Distrib Network Consolidation; MC Network Consolidation Slower Goin' AB distribution system is less consolidated than MC. But it closed the gap in 2025, as AB took more aggressive stance and pushed the process along far more than usual. It forced a number of smaller distribs out of biz after finding they sold out-of-code Busch Light Peach, which violated AB's equity agreement. AB also welcomed largest wine and spirits distrib Southern Glazer's Wine and Spirits to its network and invited largest beer distrib Reyes Beverage Group to its reception at Natl Beer Wholesalers Assn. Meanwhile, Redwood Holdings, AB's largest indie distrib (owned by family office of billionaire Jim Davis) got bigger again in 1 of larger AB distrib deals in 2025, buying 6.7-mil-case Ohio Eagle from Saputo family. Largest AB deal was sale of approx 10 mil case KW Bevs in SC to Southern Crown. And largest distrib deal overall was AB house Hand Family leaping across the country to buy indie distribs Stone Dist and Classic in SoCal, positioning itself as a potential consolidator in the region.All of these point to overarching trend of the big getting bigger. Tho other regional distribs getting deals done in competitive mkts too, including Eagle Brands Sales&#39; pickup of Stephens Dist in southern FL and Jenkins&#39; pickup of LaRose in OH. Most AB deals were for smaller distribs. INSIGHTS tracked 19 deals in AB system in 2025, with many others in works. That's far more than typical 10-12 annually, and roughly 3x as many as we tracked in MC system.Segment Shifts: Imports & FMBs Hit a Wall; NA Beer Still Fastest Growing; Hard Cider Back to Growth Two key segments, imports and FMBs, flipped from growth to decline in 2025. Import volume is down 4% and FMBs are down 6% in 2025 YTD Circana scans thru Nov 30 vs imports +2% and FMBs +5% in 2024. Imports still gaining slight share in scans amid broad industry declines, partly due to inclusion of international brands that shifted production to US, plus strong growth from Guinness. But FMBs are suddenly losing ground as RTD spirits and wine brands expand their presence in tracked off-prem chains, among other factors. That leaves just superpremium (+3%), non-alc (+24%) and hard cider (+2%) as the only growth segments this yr. Superpremium is largely driven by a single brand, Mich Ultra. Non-alc beer remains the healthiest segment, seeing growth from a variety of cos, including many top brand fams. Athletic expects to produce over 500K bbls this yr on its own. Tho new entrants like Mich Ultra Zero drove a significant amount of category gains this yr. Hard cider's return to growth is driven most by category leader Angry Orchard's summer/fall surge, on top of continued growth from top regional cos.RTD Spirits & Wine Still THE Bright Spot; Top Suppliers Increasingly Seeking M&A in this Space When ready-to-drink wine and spirits first began to take off, many assumed they'd follow a similar trajectory as hard seltzer: boom, splat. But while RTDs haven't yet reached even half the scale that hard seltzers had at their peak, thus far they've managed to buck category trends, even as the long tail of brands keeps getting longer. RTD wine & spirits collectively grew about $750 mil to $3.7 bil in tracked NIQ off-premise data yr-to-date thru 10/25. And when counted as part of broader "beer," they cut total $$ declines in half to -1.5%. RTDs are unquestionably this year's shining growth star, and Surfside's growth remains the most explosive, more than doubling to 11 mil cases all-channel in 2025. As their stature builds, both suppliers and distribs alike are looking to get a bigger piece of the action.Biggest Supplier M&A Still on NA Bev Side; Garage Beer $200 Mil Valuation; Beyond Beer Heating Up Even in the wake of ABI's deal to acquire BeatBox at valuation a bit over $575 mil (see above), 2025 was yet another yr in which supplier M&A proved far more fertile in non-alc bevs. None larger than Keurig Dr Pepper's move to buy JDE Peet's for $18.4 bil and unwind the KDP merger from 2018. Pepsi bought Poppi for $1.95 bil. Celsius acquired Alani Nu for $1.8 bil. In early 2025, MC bought an 8.5% stake in Fevertree for $88 mil, implying $1 bil valuation. And Gryphon Investors bought Spindrift for $650 mil. Largest traditional US beer deal this yr was Garage Beer selling an undisclosed stake to PE firm Durational Capital at $200 mil valuation. Co expects to finish 2025 at ~3 mil cases, aiming to grow another 2-3X next yr. But biggest US "beer" deals increasingly taking place beyond beer, led by BeatBox and BuzzBallz each of the past 2 yrs. More M&A in the space may be imminent, as both MC and Mark Anthony are openly talking up RTD acquisition oppys. Smaller craft-on-craft mergers also continued apace, albeit often at deflated values with little to no cash exchanged.Rogue and 21st Amendment Abrupt Exits Signal Tuffer Times in Craftland 2025 marked another down year in craftland, its 4th straight and 5 of the last 6. US shipments on track to land below where they were a decade ago, even as number of breweries doubled in that timeframe. This yr also saw more rollups, closings and bankruptcies, with segment struggles exemplified by abrupt exits of 2 craft pioneers: Rogue and 21st Amendment. Both peaked at well over 100K bbls but fell to just a fraction of that. Rogue shuttered operations and filed for chapter 7 bankruptcy last mo, nearly 4 decades after its launch in 1988. 21A similarly transformed many times over its 25-yr history but struggled with profitability since the pandemic. Co's seeking someone to buy the brand before it winds down entirely. Yet some craft cos still posting standout growth too.Another Hazy Yr for Hemp Bevs and More to Come Ahead of Pending Fed Ban Beyond Dispensaries Thru much of 2025, all the action on hemp-derived THC happened in the states, which occasionally moved in vastly different directions, including thru often restrictive executive actions by reactive governors, frustrated by legislative inaction. Certain sectors of the alc bev biz still hold widely varying views of the burgeoning hemp biz. Some see high margin oppys to replace lost volume in a stubbornly soft beer biz. Others see only risk and threats to their core biz: alcohol. Supportive members of the middle tier helped hemp bizzes advocate for new state laws to expand the mkt. But a lack of unification contributed to the failure to convince fed lawmakers to cohere around a single piece of legislation to protect the industry. Instead, Congress tucked a provision into the package of bills that reopened the govt that is set to ban the vast majority of intoxicating hemp products sold outside of state cannabis systems. The industry has until mid-Nov 2026 to convince legislators to delay implementation or revise regs in a way that will allow the products to stay on shelves.Fed Prosecutors Dribble Out Eye-Popping Criminal Conspiracy Charges in CA For first time in memory, US prosecutors charged 5 alc bev industry members with federal crimes. It started in Feb with charges against 2 former wine sales folks, expanding to a 3d salesperson, a buyer at a big grocery chain and 3d party vendor. Misdemeanor violations of alc bev trade practice laws like commercial bribery are "eye-popping" enough, as industry attys commented during legal conferences this summer. But those discussions often glossed over the heftier felony charges of conspiracy to defraud the govt, tied to elaborate efforts to cover up the pay-to-play. Indeed, IRS is leading the charge, not TTB. And charging docs so far point to a pattern of using funds mostly allocated for mktg by suppliers to compensate both distrib sales folks and retailer buyers in ways that didn't just violate alc bev laws but weren't taxed. The "large national" distrib in question has not been charged. It's early days tho, and all 5 defendants have either pleaded guilty or otherwise agreed to cooperate with the feds.FTC's Alleged Price Discrimination Suit Against Southern Carries On, Despite Agency Turmoil When the President Trump fired 2 Democrats from the FTC, 2 of the 3 remaining commissioners were the same ones who vehemently criticized the agency's Dec 2024 lawsuit against Southern Glazer's Wine & Spirits, claiming widespread price discrimination. So some supposed the suit would go the same way as the FTC's case against Pepsi, filed under the same renewed interest in enforcing the long-dormant Robinson-Patman Act and quickly dropped under the Trump Admin. Not so, however. By the time FTC dropped its case against PepsiCo in May, a fed judge in CA had already refused to dismiss the agency's claims against Southern, paving way to an extremely expensive and lengthy discovery phase digging into alleged discrimination over 17 mil transactions in 30 states with thousands of retailers and products. A trial is currently set for Oct 2027.New CEOs at MC, Boston, Diageo (Global), Pabst, FIFCO USA; Renspie Joins HUSA; Lotsa Layoffs It was a year of immense leadership change among top beer suppliers. Including global Diageo, 5 of the 11 biggest US beer cos changed ceos: MC, SAM, Diageo, Pabst and FIFCO USA. New MC chief Rahul Goyal took the reins from Gavin Hattersley Oct 1. Boston Beer founder/chmn Jim Koch reassumed the ceo role in mid Aug, stepping in at age 76 after surprise departure of Michael Spillane. Global Diageo ceo Debra Crew stepped down by "mutual agreement," to be replaced by Sir Dave Lewis Jan 1 of next yr, at which time interim ceo Nik Jhangiani will resume cfo role. Pabst appointed Greig DeBow as ceo effective Aug 11, replacing Paul Chibe. And FIFCO USA ceo Piotr Jurjewicz stepped down in mid Jun, succeeded by company vet Gustavo Cornejo. Plenty of non-ceo exec changes too. Among most notable were the departure of MC's former cco Michelle St Jacques, Boston Beer's promotion of Philip Hodges to cco and HUSA bringing aboard former Constellation cco Bill Renspie in cso role. And several alc bev cos had layoffs to varying degrees including AB, MC, STZ, Mark Anthony, Pabst, Sierra Nevada, Diageo, Brown-Forman, Moet Hennessy, Pernod Ricard and RNDC.For more on 2025 total industry trends, top brand and supplier tallies, sign up for the 2025 Year in Beer Webinar from Beer Marketer's Insights. Get an in-depth look at the news and numbers that drove the beer biz in 2025 on Wednesday, Jan 28, 2026 @1-2:30 PM EST.

2025 Year in Review: Beer Down 5% Again; AB Gaining Share; STZ Down; Distribution Shockers

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