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As always this time of year, we're letting the experts do more of the talking than us in trying to suss out what 2026 is likely to bring for the non-alcoholic bev biz. We polled bankers, brand operators and those involved in disciplines like copacking, wholesaling and THC for their best guesses, in a highly fluid environment where it's not clear whether the country is entering a recession or whether tariffs are going to ease or intensify. What did we hear? Not surprisingly, protein came up a lot, as did fiber, alcohol-alternatives and THC bevs. With great thanks to our contributors, here's what they had to tell us over the past coupla weeks: Mike Burgmaier and Nick McCoy of Whipstitch CapitalAlcohol Strategics Will Continue to Diversify Alcohol consumption in the US will continue to decline, forcing the large beer and wine & spirits strategics to restructure towards more non-alcoholic (NA) options. The infrastructure built by these strategics can be better utilized serving alc, adult NA and traditional NA products, such as soda, water, RTD coffee and more.Healthspan/Lifespan Growth Will Further Impact Beverage Consumers will continue to have more and more real-time health-related information from wearables, continuous glucose monitors and other sources. As more people focus on longevity, both the positive and negative impacts of certain beverages on health will influence the market. Look for continued growth from low/no-sugar, protein-focused and fiber-rich beverages.GLP-1 Usage Continues to Grow GLP-1 use has grown to over 12% of the US population, with plenty of headroom, as obesity rates are near 40% and over 70% of the US population is overweight. As a result, beverages that improve hydration, digestion, brain health and the intake of fiber and protein could see increased consumption.Look for Some Large Deals Olipop remains the mega-deal in waiting. Additionally, we expect a few other larger deals to occur. There are several lesser-thought-of $300 million+ private beverage companies in the US that have chosen to remain "under the radar" by not raising external private equity capital or seeking press. As noted above, the larger alcohol strategics will feel the need to diversify. Several of these private companies provide the scale these alcohol strategics need. The real question will be: Are they ready to step up and pay?'K-Shaped Economy' Will Impact Spending - But How Much Is Yet to Be Determined There is considerable discussion about the K-shaped economy, where the disposable income of higher-income consumers is growing while that of lower-income consumers remains flat to negative. Premium and "better-for-you" product sales outgrew the total store in 2025 at levels not seen since before Covid-19, driven in part by higher-income consumer spending. We are closely monitoring whether a consumer pullback will be seen in brands or whether reductions will be concentrated in food/beverage away-from-home, which has grown to higher percentages of consumer food and beverage dollars than historical averages since the pandemic.Dave Burwick, CEO of Spindrift When I think about retail in 2026, I start where I always start: the consumer. The next year is going to feel increasingly two-speed. A relatively small slice of households will keep spending&mdash;and they'll fund the growth of premium, better-for-you brands. Everyone else will be more stressed and more selective, and their "trade-up" will be occasional and intentional&mdash;a little treat with a reason. In that world, the middle gets hollowed out. Distinct premium brands win. Value wins too. And more of that value will be private-label&mdash;because retailers see the importance of creating more premium private-label brands.That puts real pressure on brands to become "brands that matter"&mdash;not just "nice packaging" or another functional claim. Functionality will keep expanding, but consumers are already getting skeptical of "science fair" beverages. Great taste and real ingredients will be the moat. If you're not meaningfully different&mdash;or at least unmistakably distinctive&mdash;you'll be swappable in either two clicks or two steps down the aisle.Meanwhile, tariffs and input volatility are going to continue. But gross margin is oxygen for growth. So you'll have to contain costs relentlessly, absorb some, pass some on, and still grow volume&mdash;because pricing without volume is just a slow fade. Very few beverage brands can thread that needle today.And finally, 2026 is a great time to invest ahead of the curve in people. I'm a big believer in over-hiring great talent when others are hesitating&mdash;new capabilities, higher standards, faster learning. My job is to set the ambition and the intent&mdash;and then build a team that makes me less and less important over time.Ira Steinberg, CEO of Allen Flavors, N Plainfield, NJ We see beverages continuing to evolve beyond simple refreshment to becoming more purpose-driven and lifestyle-oriented. The themes of energy, hydration and overall wellness will continue to drive beverage development. At the same time, we're seeing nostalgic flavors continue to resonate &mdash; familiar, comforting profiles but reimagined in cleaner, more functional formats.Functionally, protein remains king. The impact of GLP-1 medications and broader weight-management trends is clearly influencing how people think about what they drink and what they eat. Protein in "whatever" projects are the norm. Hydration, energy and cognitive support remain core drivers of formula innovation, but expectations around clean labels and recognizable, functional ingredients are higher than ever.Non-alcoholic and low-alcohol alternatives to traditional alcoholic beverages also feel firmly mainstream heading into 2026. What's changed is that these products are no longer viewed as compromises &mdash; consumers expect full flavor, elevated experiences and a sense of purpose behind them.Overall, we see 2026 as a year where beverages need to deliver on function, flavor and intention &mdash; all at once. It's an exciting time for innovation, and we're seeing a lot of momentum across the category.Ed Carino, owner of Proof No More alc-alternative distributor based in NYC (1) We'll see more Italian de-alcoholized wines entering the market after a ruling in 2025 made it easier for wineries to perform that process in Italy. Up until now they had to undertake cumbersome, expensive task of shipping the alcoholic wine to de-alcoholization facilities in Belgium, Germany or Spain, then shipping them back to Italy. I believe this will echo what we saw in France in late 2024 into 2025 as more French wineries recognized the value of entering the NA wine sector, particularly if they have excess grapes.(2) As more wineries are getting into de-alc or non-alc wine, you are seeing more R&D into this sector, so expect more quality improvements as wineries learn which grape varietals to use, when to harvest them and which winemaking techniques are most appropriate for de-alc wines. Products also will benefit from newer de-alc technologies like smart nanofiltration to remove the ethanol molecule, then add new natural blends to improve "mouthfeel" and taste.(3) I anticipate continued interest in functional RTDs with adaptogens or nootropics like ashwagandha, lion&#39;s mane mushrooms and L-theanine, though brands need to be careful not to oversell these items' supposed health benefits.(4) In my market, New York City, most on-premise operators by now have at least one NA option, with NA beer the dominant option followed by NA spirits/cocktails or mocktails, and NA wine the laggard. Over the next 4-5 years I expect this pattern to be replicated in most metro areas outside NY too. This is analogous to the vegan/gluten-free sector where even bars/restaurants that aren't positioned as vegan- or GF-centric now have vegan and GF options for guests who want them. Soon it won't be unusual to see several adult NAs on the menu, with NA beer the entry point, along with NA cocktails and, assuming the quality improves as I anticipate, NA wine.Michelle Bodian, General Counsel and Head of Regulatory Affairs at Nowadays THC CompanyIn 2025, hemp-derived THC beverages continued to expand into the mainstream retail and distribution system. National retailers including Target, Circle K and Sprouts added the category, consumer awareness increased through broader media coverage and major events, and beer wholesalers increasingly engaged with hemp beverages as an incremental revenue opportunity. At Nowadays, this resulted in measurable scale, with the brand becoming the number-one-selling THC beverage and expanding into more than 10,000 retail doors nationwide.From a regulatory standpoint, the primary federal issue remains the language that was tied to reopening the government that would impose a 0.4 milligram per-container THC limit if left unchanged. That threshold is incompatible with most beverage formulations and almost all hemp products currently on the market. In his recent Executive Order, President Trump expressly acknowledged that hemp policy needs to be readdressed to allow for full-spectrum products, which commonly include THC, and directed Congress to work toward a legislative solution. Importantly, the November vote related to reopening the federal government and did not represent a policy determination specific to hemp beverages.As state legislatures return to session in early 2026, active engagement at the state level will be critical. For our alcohol partners, maintaining strong relationships with state legislators and regulators will be an important tool in ensuring hemp beverages are regulated in a manner that reflects their unique characteristics and existing retail frameworks. While regulatory uncertainty may create challenges for smaller or single-state operators, supply chains remain intact and most multi-state operators continue to operate without disruption. The overall direction points toward clarification and structured oversight rather than elimination of the category.Breck Speed, Partner at cannabev incubator Emergent Beverages It&#39;s either going to be very good or very bad for cannabevs - and no one can give you 100% assurance for either scenario. As of right now, retailers and wholesalers are onboarding and selling hemp THC beverage products. But if a reversal or time extension of the federal ban scheduled for November isn&#39;t implemented, we anticipate a rapid shutdown to begin in the May/June time period. The clock is ticking.What do we expect? We have reason to believe it is more likely than not that a bill will be passed granting more time to develop compromise legislation and regulation. Quite a few states (a lot of them "red" states) have already passed legislation, lots of voters consume the products, taxes are being collected, and lots of jobs are at stake in what appears to be a slowing economy. So this is a bipartisan issue in an election year. I&#39;d be fascinated to see what Polymarket has to say.Vic Avila of Jack Hilliard Distributing, Texas For our house spanning many Texas markets, both protein and energy have been continued winners. On the protein side, we're betting on emerging brands like MRE, Raw Protein and Spylt to drive growth in 2026 and hopefully lead to growth in the independent c-store channel for this category. On the energy side, we feel those with soda flavors will spark this year's growth. So we're betting on the likes of Redcon and its Jolt Cola, Root Beer and Dr Jolt entries. Gorilla Mind is another brand that&#39;s on the rise. It's been impactful in the independent c-store channel as well as regional and national retailers in Texas, including Quik Trip and HEB.Mark Olivieri, former CEO of OWYN plant-based protein (exited to Simply Good Foods)As I look toward 2026, I'm skeptical that protein RTDs can sustain the same level of category growth we've seen historically, largely due to increasing share pressure from adjacent aisles now meeting consumer protein needs. Protein is no longer exclusive to RTDs or the nutrition aisle - it's embedded across snacks, cereal, frozen, and indulgent categories, etc. - all competing for a finite level of daily protein intake. Within RTDs specifically, share will continue to concentrate around superior protein technology, as we've seen ultra-filtered formats take share from both legacy and plant-protein systems. When meaningfully better technology is delivered within standard price curves, share rotation becomes inevitable. For protein RTDs, innovation is the primary defense against structural share erosion.Ken Sadowsky, 'beverage whisperer,' Verlinvest brand scout, exec dir of Northeast Independent Distributors Assn In a word, protein. Protein has hit the beverage world harder and faster than anticipated. Clear protein has enabled and enhanced the categories of beverage that will feature protein. From water to CSD to the more traditional segments like milk, shakes, and coffee, there will be protein.What rhymes with protein? Caffeine, creatine and matcha (OK, not matcha), and all three of those are on trend. What's new about caffeine is the form factor - ZYN-like pouches are coming.As in the recent past, food and beverage tech enable new functional ingredients to be effective in liquid solutions. Ketones are coming on as well with benefits that include energy, focus and weight control. If these work, that will be a very large segment.The vilification of sugar continues as does the search for the best non-nutritive sweetener: Stevia's Reb-M may be the best version yet. GLP-1 effects are continuing to build in general.Adult non-alcoholic products continue to be a segment worth watching - they are getting better, bitter and more sophisticated.Pete Grego, independent bev consultant in Sacramento, Calif, with long experience in distribution and copackingI expect these trends to continue in 2026: No- and low-alcohol beverages, Premiumization, Vodka and gin will still rule in spirits, In 2026 the FDA will continue to phase out the use of petroleum-based dyes in the US and remove artificial colors from drink formulations. Hydration and wellness drinks will continue to lead innovation in 2026, Other hot buttons: protein, fiber, pre- and probiotics and lower sugar levels. On the production front, while tunnel pasteurization has been a preferred process type for most beverages, "flash" pasteurization has quickly come into demand for beverages containing fibers and proteins. However, there is a limited amount of this process type currently available in the US market, and that could prove a pain point for some brand owners.Scott Frohman, Founder/CEO of Odyssey Wellness Though many entrepreneurs have been lamenting the challenges of the past year, from fundraising to staying on retailers' shelves, starting something from nothing always has its challenges, regardless of the industry or market conditions. It's better to look on the bright side: today there is tremendous opportunity for the right products. After all, consumers clearly are wanting new, innovative beverages. And retailers are more interested in bringing these offerings in, which in turn is getting distributors aboard.Still, to succeed, entrepreneurs more than ever will need to be brutally honest about their concept. I'm speaking from direct experience four years into building my Odyssey Functional Energy brand: four years of relentless experimentation in which I scrapped my original concept of mushroom coffee in favor of the more broadly appealing energy drinks I now offer, and learned reluctantly not to dwell so much in my messaging on the mushrooms whose efficacy I so passionately believe in. Four years of experimenting with everything from my branding hierarchy to my staffing to my distribution mode.Though I've been lucky to enjoy prior success in other business areas, my four years in beverages have taught me that the bar here is very high. The product simply must be beyond spectacular in function, flavor and branding/labeling to attain mass appeal. Getting there will require an extended period of groping toward the right solutions. So unless you can find a way to generate profitable sales to fund your growth, expect someone - most likely the CEO/founder himself or herself - to have to spend a significant amount of time raising the money that buys that time needed to figure out the way forward. Sellthrough must happen organically. If the label and messaging are right, then the product should be able to do its job of winning over retailers - hopefully from the moment they receive your sample kit - and moving off the shelf. That's your best source of advertising and you simply have to get it right. If your flavor and effects are right, then you will get the repeat business and velocity, and that is everything. By contrast, if you need to pour endless amounts of money into marketing to get that movement, then I think you're selling yourself, not consumers. The branding, flavor and effect should be able to generate business. If they're not, then figure out what you need to change and do it fast.Keep pivoting and dialing it in. That's a 24/7 job so you also need to surround yourself with a passionate team. My own experience at Odyssey has taught me that passion is more important than talent or beverage-specific experience, certainly in the early days.

SPECIAL REPORT: What's in Store in '26? Our Experts Offer Their Takes on Everything from Deals to Operating Deliverables; Will Protein Continue Its Surge? Alc-Alternatives, Fiber, THC & More

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