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This week in 2000, August Busch IV was on cover of Forbes in feature on wannabe ceos of family-run public cos. August said he wanted to be next AB ceo but added: “I’m young—with time on my side.” Article put Aug IV in context of changing biz world where “corporate heirs are being held back.” Promotion of prexy Pat Stokes to intl chairman could be “sign that a more battle-hardened executive is being positioned” to step in when August III leaves, wrote Forbes. Tho AB board a “fairly clubby bunch” with close ties to August III, he owned only 1% of AB stock. Forbes questioned whether institutional investors who owned 63% of AB would accept August IV. Problem with article was there wasn’t a single quote from an AB board member, August III or anyone else who knew what board really thought, noted INSIGHTS. August IV ultimately became AB prexy & ceo in Dec 2006. He was the last Busch family member to lead the company before it was acquired by InBev in 2008. This week in 2002, consultant Sam Boyer described provocative “fractionalization” theory at Michigan-Illinois mtg. In Sam’s view, US beer biz was likely to develop much like auto biz had, not dominated by 2-3 players, but by 7-10 strong suppliers. That would be good news for multi-brand distribs, but bad news for exclusive distribs and AB, which Sam believed would have to cope with “significantly lower market share.” Right after Sam spoke, August Busch IV arrived for his speech. Said he’d read Sam’s article on fractionalization in NBWA publication and discussed it at last wholesaler panel mtg. Added: “Sam, if you’re right, I gotta go out and short the stock... Can’t let that happen. So, best of luck to you.” This week in 2005 saw more Miller/Coors consolidation in Northern California. One of largest Miller distribs, Mesa Bevs (owned by Ron Fowler), acquired Coors distrib Golden Gate Dist Co in Marin County (owned by Daniels family). Unlike some other recent Miller/Coors deals, this one came to fruition rapidly. When Ron approached Chuck Daniels in Dec, the time seemed right, said Chuck, adding “we thought, well it’s time to do it.” The Daniels family was “one of Marin’s oldest and most well- known business families, wrote the Marin Independent Journal . They kept a vintner and distilled spirits distrib, plus investments in real estate. This was one of several Miller/Coors deals in Bay Area since 2004. This week in 2007, INSIGHTS reported several smaller distrib deals. Another Miller/Coors deal in Beaumont, Tex had just closed. Giglio Dist (Miller) just bought Gideon Dist (Coors). But local AB distrib Del Papa bought Modelo portfolio, which it also sold out of its Galveston location. Shiner went to Giglio in this transaction. Meanwhile, Mount Hood, one of largest distribs in Northwest, bought yet another distrib. Purchased Haines-Central Oregon distribs in Bend, OR, according to Bend Bulletin. “It’s important for us to have a statewide network,” Mt Hood’s cfo Lou Wood told Bulletin. Bend was “last area with any significant population that we are not servicing in Oregon.” About a month prior, Euclid Bev, a large Miller distrib in IL, made its 2d purchase in last 6 mos as it bought United Dist of Galesburg, reported Kane County Chronicle. This week in 2015, Altria “spoke more openly” about its 27% stake in SABMiller during q&a at Consumer Analyst Group of NY (CAGNY) meeting, pointed out ISI’s Robert Ottenstein, “suggesting significant flexibility.” Now that’s interesting. “Some investors who have followed Altria for years noted a new tone, with some even suggesting that the firm was inviting an offer, although we wouldn’t go that far,” added Robert. He believed odds of an ABI-SAB deal had gone up from 50 to 60%. And 2015 “seems as good a year as any.” (Turned out to be 2016.) Altria said that it had extensively evaluated its stake “in context of global beer industry consolidation,” said Robert. “We are ready for all scenarios,” Altria said at CAGNY. And Altria could impact outcome, given its 3 SABMiller board seats, tho it would not necessarily demand board representation in a new co. In terms of whether it sought cash, stock or a combo, “all options are on the table,” wrote Robert. Altria at time booked $1 bil per yr of equity income from SAB investment. The “bottom line” for Robert: “Altria has obviously spent a lot of time considering its investment and appears willing to consider a range of structures and terms as long as it’s convinced the outcome is in shareholders’ best interests.” Robert also reminded that Santo Domingo family, which owned 15% of SABMiller, had invested with 3G, whose 3 founders owned 26% of ABI. Deal was struck just shy of 9 months later.

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