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Boston Beer, one of the industry’s most dynamic growth companies for decades, has hit a rough patch. Shipments fell for the fourth consecutive year in 2025 and are now down 1.36 mil bbls, 16% from a 2021 peak of 8.5 mil bbls. In 2025, Boston Beer shipments fell 354,000 bbls, 4.7%. Depletions down 4%. Will it grow in 2026? Doesn’t look like it so far. Depletions down 3% in data thru Feb 21, co reported. And its guidance is for volume to be flat to down mid-singles in 2026. So Boston is not really expecting growth in 2026. With Boston likely down 5 yrs running, fair to ask if/when Boston can grow again. Yet Boston remains growth-oriented and always searching for its next big thing. SAM’s Wild Shipments Ride; Truly, Twisted In its four decade history, Boston built leading positions in craft beer, cider and hard tea, but its biggest boom was (at least initially) in hard seltzer. Yet co also went thru some wild fluctuations over last decade. It declined 2015-2017, then grew explosively 2018-2021 as Truly rose exponentially to become half its biz and almost 60 mil cases in just 5 yrs. Four yrs later, in 2025, it was only a little over 20 mil cases and ~20% of its biz. BOOM, SPLAT! Meanwhile, Twisted Tea took off, more than doubling from a little over 20 mil cases to 50 mil cases between 2020-2024. But it declined in 2025, at least partly because of macroeconomic trends and pressured Hispanic consumers, according to co. Improving Twisted Tea’s trend has gotta be SAM’s top priority. How Much Can Sun Cruiser and Sinless Help? Fast Growth on Small Base, Big Spend Yet Boston is also really leaning into its spirits-based RTD Sun Cruiser. Much of its approx $60 mil in incremental sales, promo and ad spend in 2025 used to launch Sun Cruiser. Did it pay off? “I have to say yes it did,” proclaimed founder, ceo and chairman Jim Koch on conference call. It “scaled quickly” and “went from kind of nowhere to become” the 5th-largest RTD, Jim added. It’s “kind of close” to where AB’s NUTRL is and NUTRL “is a really great brand” AB built over several yrs. Meanwhile, Sun Cruiser just getting chain authorizations, so should have at least 1 or maybe 2 years of really strong growth, according to Jim. Boston will increase spending on Sun Cruiser again in 2026. This year, it’s also expanding spirits-based RTD Sinless rapidly to 30+ states in a “quasi-national” launch, after a ‘very successful” test, said Jim. Angry Orchard, Dogfish Head Up 3d Qtr in a Row; Hard MTN Dew Down, Still 2% of Revs But can those move the needle enough? Sun Cruiser is only a little more than 5% of SAM’s $$ in scans, tho it overindexes on-premise, with as much as 40% of its volume on-premise in some mkts. Other smaller Boston brands up too. Angry Orchard and Dogfish Head are bright spots, each up for 3 qtrs in a row. Craft now down to 14% or so of SAM volume. Sam Adams $$ flat in latest 4 wks in NIQ, but way down from peak. Hard MTN Dew also down to $39 mil in 2025 (~2% of revs, sold under licensing agreement with Pepsi) despite growth in tracked scans. Truly remains down double digits. Jim candidly confessed that Boston has been a “weak” #2 in seltzer. But co’s “investing more” in Truly too in 2026 as seltzer remains “viable” and Truly still #2, “so we’d like to get it to be a stronger #2 than it is now with low single digit growth.” Finances, Supply Chain Much Improved; Boston Will Make Over 90% of Its Products in 26 Boston net revs dipped 2% and dropped below $2 bil for first time since 2020. And yet operating income jumped over $100 mil for the first time since 2020. Oper income climbed 91% to $144 mil, even with big $60 mil increase in mktg, promo and selling expenses. Gross margins increased over 400 basis points to 48.5%. Boston plans to increase ad, promo and selling expenses another $20-40 mil in 2026. Improved finances stem in part from making more of its own products. Yet it still paid $21 mil in shortfall fees to contract producers in 2025. But in 2024, it had paid $26 mil in cash as it amended a supplier agreement, $13 mil in shortfall fees and also incurred another “non-cash expense of third-party production pre-payments of $20.1 million that negatively impacted gross margins.” So a big improvement from all that in 2025. Boston made 86% of its products in its own facilities (~6.1 mil bbls) in 2025, up from 74% (~5.5 mil bbls) in 2024. It expects to make over 90% in 2026. Third party production facilities “remain a critical part of the company’s product strategy” and SAM “is reliant on them, particularly City,” it said in govt filing. Meanwhile, it has $223 mil in cash and no debt. But growth remains elusive.

As Boston Beer Shipments Down 5%, Profits Doubled; Outlook Soft; Down 4 Yrs in a Row

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