1st BATCH OF FILES AVAILABLE NOW!

Molson Coors is coming off a challenging year in 2025, entering a new phase under ceo Rahul Goyal while still toeing the line between getting more aggressive in areas like M&A while staying relatively conservative in others like marketing and capex, driving cost efficiencies and financial flexibility thruout the org. Rahul and cfo Tracey Joubert’s vision for MC’s “Horizon 2030” plan to grow topline low-single-digits consistently in the medium term while saving $450 mil in costs over 3 yrs presented at CAGNY was tepidly received by analysts. Tho that’s at least partly due to surprise 2026 earnings forecast of down 15-18% as co faces big cost increases due to aluminum tariffs and lapping $70-mil incentive plan comp, despite maintaining medium-term outlook of low-single-digit topline growth. It’s “still a ‘show me’ story in a challenged category,” headlined Morgan Stanley’s Eric Serotta in his TAP report. “There will be skepticism on the achievability of flat revenue this year and tangible progress likely offers the most near-term opportunity for a change in sentiment,” said Needham’s Gerald Pascarelli. “Improvements must be seen in '26-27 to alleviate doubts” on its medium-term algorithm, wrote Jefferies’ Kaumil Gajrawala. MC’s “‘Horizon 2030’ strategy update presented many common sense initiatives, but still left much to be desired,” added Bernstein’s Nadine Sarwat, lowering her TAP target price. Most recently, Bank of America’s Peter Galbo called TAP’s outlook “weaker than expected” as mgmt “provided limited visibility into stabilizing volumes,” downgrading stock to “underperform.” And HSBC’s Carlos Laboy wrote that “the fundamental problem is an inability to create demand in the US.” MC distrib network is similarly skeptical about co’s growth prospects at this stage, INSIGHTS has found. MC US Revs Down 6%, Shipments -8.7% in 2025 (Including Pabst Impact); Down vs 2022 Molson Coors finished the year with US revs down 6.1% to $7.3 bil as shipments to wholesalers dropped 8.7% in 2025 vs 2024. Loss of Pabst and Labatt contract production impacted shipments by ~300 bps in Americas region (primarily US & Canada), co shared, where shipments were down 9.2% to 45.6 mil bbls. With more of that hit coming from Pabst loss at US facilities than Canadian facilities’ Labatt loss, suggests MC own-brand shipments were down around 7% in the US, behind US STRs (-5.9%) amid distrib inventory reduction in Q4. Its beer shipments down steeper yet excluding the boost from Fever-Tree and ZOA non-alc sales (see above). While MC retained over half of the mkt share it gained in 2023 in US beer volume thru 2025, its volume is nearly 3 mil bbls, 7% below 2022, we estimate, with Coors Light back to 2022 volume levels and Miller Lite below that mark. MC revs down less than 1% vs 2022 in US thanks to price increases. But Banquet and Peroni are MC’s only two core brands that have grown volume vs 2022, and there aren’t that many others up thruout the rest of the portfolio. MC’s still searching for ways to shore up elsewhere, finding some success with Topo Chico Hard lately and putting additional emphasis on value brands that collectively still sold 7-7.5 mil bbls last yr, among other challenged areas, while finding new avenues to add significant boosts. Fever-Tree Would Be 2% of US Revs, Nearly 1% of US Volume Full Yr MC’s reported results include an incremental boost from new partnership with Fever-Tree in US as well as inclusion of ZOA in financial results now that it has majority stake. Fever-Tree revs hit ~$182 mil in US last yr, and execs previously shared it sold 10 mil cases/yr in the US, or ~5 mil beer case equivs. So Fever-Tree woulda been over 2% of its US revs and a little under 1% of its US volume with full-yr results included. Keep in mind, Fever-Tree commercial partnership began Feb 1, but integration wasn’t complete til beginning of Jun. So MC will have 5 mos of incremental Fever-Tree embedded into 2026 results. Seeking Self-Funded $200-350 Mil M&A that Adds 1-2% to Topline; Cos with Net Revs $110-225 Mil MC is expecting to step up M&A activity, seeking deals that would cost between $200-350 mil, funded entirely by cash from operations, targeting brands/cos that add 1-2% to MC’s global net sales annually and are “scalable,” cfo Tracey Joubert highlighted at CAGNY. MC global revs were $11.14 bil in 2025, so co’s looking to acquire cos with annual net revs in the ~$110-$225 mil range. Fever-Tree notably falls in that range already. But this would be a clear increase from recent deals like Fever-Tree (~$88 mil for 8.5% stake), ZOA Energy ($53 mil to go from 40% to 51% stake) and Blue Run ($78 mil for 75% stake). While execs continue to tout Fever-Tree’s prospects, co took a $75 mil writedown on Blue Run last yr, and ZOA hasn’t panned out as cos woulda hoped. TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow wondered if parameters for M&A were too conservative, as they would “exclude bigger brands with a proven track record,” and wouldn’t “meaningfully inflect their sales.” Mktg Spend Down in 2025 but Up as % of Net Sales; “We Feel Our Brands are Well Supported” MC marketing spend decreased for a 2d consecutive year company-wide including in the Americas region. But mktg and advertising spend remained around ~$1.1 bil globally each of the last 3 yrs, rising as a % of net sales to nearly 10%. “We’re not looking to step up investment in a significant way,” Rahul commented during Q&A, regarding mktg. “We feel our brands are well supported.” This yr will see less upfront spend, at least, as MC opted to forgo Super Bowl, but will ramp up on other brands like Fever-Tree, which is getting its first natl campaign, and Peroni, which was supported thru Winter Olympics. Revitalization, Complete? Global Revs Up 5% Since 2019; Debt Level Slashed & Cashflow Rose; Volume & Employee Count Down Big; Wonky Income When MC first announced its revitalization plan in late 2019, global MC shipped 79 mil bbls with $10.6 bil in net revs, including 52.5 mil bbls and $7.2 bil in US, and had 17,700 employees globally that year. By 2025, MC global revs rose 5% to $11.14 bil, including +1% to $7.35 mil in the US, despite volumes falling sharply to 62 mil bbls globally including under 39 mil bbls in the US. (When MC formed in 2008, it had 64.5 mil bbls in US.) Net employee count reduced by 1,500 to 16,200 globally since 2019, mostly cutting from US even as co built out a non-alc bev team that hired ~200 folks in the last 2 yrs. More cuts to come in 2026 including more in the US and up to 200 UK employees potentially impacted by coming closure of Sharp’s Brewery and UK call center. At the same time, net debt impressively cut in half since 2016, remaining below its 2.5X net debt/EBITDA target, and cash flow rose to $1.1 bil, expected to stay in that range this yr. MC’s using its added financial flexibility to increase share buyback program to up to $4 bil thru 2031. But MC’s underlying income has fluctuated drastically from year to year thruout this period, and co expects a 15-18% hit to bottom line in 2026, following 12% hit in 2025. Trend Improved Thru Mid Feb but Still Shedding Share of Beer in Scans So far in 2026, MC’s beer trend noticeably improved compared to last yr. Sales are down ~2% by $$ with volume down 3% YTD thru Feb 15 in Circana multi-outlet + convenience data. Topo Chico Hard is back to growth as Banquet and Peroni maintain gains. With incremental sales from Fever-Tree still hittin’, suggests MC’s off to a better start in Q1 2026 overall. Yet MC’s core premium lights and subpremiums are dragging sales and losing share. MC shed over 0.5 share pts YTD, marking the largest share loss of any supplier this yr.

MC US Revs & STRs -6% in 2025; Fever-Tree Boost; New Horizons Under Rahul; Analysts Say “Show Me”

Publishing Info