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Folks would be forgiven for wanting to file 2025 under Years to Forget. For the 2nd year in a row, a group of a little less than 30 top players in the US craft beer segment collectively shipped about 2% less beer than they did in the year prior, outperforming the segment once again. But in 2025, the gap between these top suppliers and the total segment was wider. The broader beer biz softened further last yr, with total volume down 5-6%. And craft lost more share of shipments, looks like, down 6-7%, we estimate, a loss of almost 1.6 mil bbls to just north of 22 mil bbls. It's lower yet excluding craft non-alc beer and some international volume sold by top US craft brewers. That decline puts craft volume back to about where it was in 2015, our estimates show. A decade ago, craft posted its 6th and final straight year of double-digit volume growth, a period when the segment gained around 12.5 mil bbls, by our count. In 2025, the segment declined in its 6th out of 7 yrs since its 2019 peak, a loss of over 4 mil bbls, most of that since the post-pandemic rebuild year of 2021.Just 5 Top Cos Grew, Led by Garage, Athletic, Deschutes Volume growth was hard to come by last yr. So hard that the feat was only achieved by 5 of the 28 cos that shipped at least 100K bbls of craft. And that includes upstart superpremium-priced lager brand with bigtime celebrity backing, Garage Beer. It got the biggest growth by far, gaining well over 100K bbls in 2025 alone. That's like the addition of a brewery the size of Fiddlehead or Georgetown in a single year. Athletic eased into another strong finish to post the 2nd biggest bbl gain in craft, up 20+% to almost a half-mil bbls at the #7 craft supplier overall.The #3 grower in the segment tells a different story: Deschutes turned around years of tough trends with a big 22% gain. Unlike the more focused players referenced above, the longtime PacNW craft leader did a little bit of everything: launched a big lager brand with Costco, built its non-alc biz, including its own brands and partnership brands with Patagonia, refocused its core portfolio and kept the pedal down on acquired Boneyard brand fam. At over 280K bbls last yr, Deschutes hasn't been this big since 2019. Final 2 growth cos on the below list are Fiddlehead and Georgetown, each reaching 120-130K bbls thru more old school means and clear focuses on relatively tight footprints and portfolios. Georgetown sold a whopping 109K bbls in home state WA alone, state reports show, ~85% of its total.Increasingly Complex Caveats: Beyond Beer, Mainstream Lager & NA Once upon a time, the question facing any measurement of craft beer, including our own, focused on ownership and size, going something like this: "craft to whom?" But that question almost seems quaint in 2026 as M&A is far from the only way the craft landscape has fundamentally changed in the last decade or so. Gotta note that non-beer brands are roped into a number of the volume numbers listed below, whether it's Kirin-Lion's LightStrike and other FMBs, AB, Tilray or Monster's craft-branded beyond beer entries, or smaller seltzers, ciders and THC bevs from key craft players. Such volume is included in the individual stats for almost half of the below players, but it is teased out on a collective basis to show how the craft beer segment performed.As noted above, craft players increasingly embrace lager brands that may not always appear to consumers as marketed (or priced) like craft beer. But much of that is incorporated into our craft total as well. As is an increasingly large amount of non-alc craft beer, which inched closer to a million bbls last yr, we estimate, including ~500K bbls from Athletic alone. Those efforts from NA-centric standalone cos and longtime players alike help keep core craft consumers in the segment, but they've also attracted new drinkers.So has the rise of high-ABV brands sold mostly in large single-serve cans, leveraged most successfully by New Belgium's Voodoo Ranger, tho plenty of others play in the space now too. While still often labeled "IPA," these beers and brands present a very different proposition that successfully brought in new drinkers and added incremental occasions. Yet the segment experienced sizable declines amid such innovations. So "craft," as it was once considered, is now quite a bit smaller than total segment figures suggest.AB Top Craft Supplier Once More; Sierra Bigger than Boston Kirin-Lion shipped about 1.8 mil bbls last yr, a bit more than the total volume of AB's craft portfolio, we estimate. But tease out its Kirin Ichiban and beyond beer volume and AB shipped more craft beer last yr than any other brewer. Coincidentally, much like craft overall, AB's craft biz was also about the same size as it was in 2015. But that yr, over half the total was not-quite-craft Shock Top, plus another couple hundred thousand bbls of acquired craft brands also sold to Tilray. The #5 player in craft, Tilray keeps getting bigger and smaller at the same time, adding more brands to its portfolio while posting the largest volume declines in craft, apples-to-apples. That pattern could continue, too, as it buys yet another embattled craft brand for far less than prior valuations suggested: BrewDog.Notably, the top 3 craft suppliers, Kirin-Lion, AB and Sierra Nevada, set the tone for top cos, all declining about 2% last yr. Kirin-Lion's growth run ended in 2025 as growth of its Voodoo Ranger line didn't fully offset declines elsewhere in its portfolio. Sierra Nevada once more finished the year between 1 and 1.1 mil bbls, just as it has for 9 of the last 12 years. For over a decade, the largest indie, family-owned craft brewer treaded water whether the segment was rising or falling, which may be a bitter pill to swallow given the amount of energy required, but it certainly fared far better than most.And for the first time, Sierra is bigger than Sam Adams. In fact, it's bigger than Sam Adams and Dogfish Head combined, and after some revisions to our Boston Beer estimates, Sierra probably passed Sam in 2024. As for Boston Beer, the most apt comparison for its craft biz isn't 1 decade ago but closer to 3. That was the last time the co shipped less than 1 mil bbls of Sam Adams, we estimate, just ahead of craft's flat volume yrs in the late-90s.New Top 5, Same Volume, Share as 2015; Average Brewery Size Below 100K Bbls Cut in Half Consider another comparison of 2025 to 2015: in both years, the top 5 craft players collectively shipped a bit more than 6 mil bbls and held around 28 share of the segment. But the makeup changed drastically. That yr, Boston sat atop the list at about 2x the volume of #2, Sierra, followed by New Belgium, Lagunitas and Craft Brew Alliance. Those 5 brewers plus all others over 100K bbls held around 60 share of craft at the time. In 2025, players over 100K bbls held around 54 share, our estimates suggest.Despite the uptick in brewery closings last year, there are still well over 2x the number of breweries in the US that there were in 2015. The Brewers Assn counted just over 4,100 breweries in operation that yr. By 2025, that number climbed to 9,778, even after back-to-back years of closures outpacing openings. With craft volume barely changed, as we count it, the avg volume of brewers under 100K bbls was basically cut in half to just over 1,000 bbls in the last decade. And most are quite a bit smaller, as a couple hundred brewers between 15K and 100K bbls contributed another sizable chunk of craft volume. With costs way up and margins squeezed, all it takes for these mostly very small bizzes is a single acute issue like a dispute with a landlord to force their hand. And many face far more challenges than that. As founders age and valuations remain far below previous highs, it's no wonder so many make the hard choice to close up shop.Down 3 is the New Up: 13 Top Players Declined But Gained Share of Craft In recent yrs of declines for craft (and beer overall), simply holding flat could feel like a win. In 2025, the bar was even lower. And in addition to the 5 growing brewers noted above, 8 more players kept volume declines to about 2% or less, including 3 of the top 5. This list includes Monster's craft biz, which held relatively stable even as the co's FMB biz faltered (and core energy drinks flew to new highs). Strong regional players like Narragansett, Allagash, Troegs and 3 Floyds also kept shipments declines minimal with revs and/or depletions often looking brighter.Plenty More Down Mid Singles, With a Few Sizable Drops Another handful of players declined mid singles, some still outperforming the beer/craft category while others were down a bit steeper. The biggest in this group include Lagunitas, which slowed its prior declines, and Mahou USA, still struggling to get lead brand fam Founders back on solid footing. They're now about 40% and close to 30% below 2019 peaks, we estimate. ABV, Brooklyn, New Glarus each declined around 5%, outperforming craft, while FX Matt was down a bit steeper but outperformed including its much larger contract brewing biz.A handful of major craft cos experienced steeper declines last yr, including 5 down low double digits and 2 others off 8-9%. Those include leading CA-based craft brand fams Firestone Walker and Stone, the latter of which hasn't yet grown under the wing of Sapporo. For Gambrinus, Shiner declined high single digits, but its Trumer brand ticked up 1%. The year-old combo of mostly New England craft brands, Barrel One, declined about 8% apples-to-apples, while Ohio's Great Lakes volume fell a bit more steeply.Honorable Mentions Include Plenty More Platforms with Plays In and Outside Craft; Beyond Beer Growth Cos Several notable indie cos passed or approached the 100K-bbl mark in 2025, whether within craftland or beyond. Hendler Family Cos produced almost 103K bbls in 2025 if including contract partners along with its own portfolio of Jack's Abby, Wormtown, Night Shift and Sloop. Its own brands were closer to ~90K bbls. Both Creature Comforts and Craft 'Ohana/Maui Brewing are around 90K bbls too, growing both beer and beyond beer products. Another West Coast brand platform, Great Frontier, is also above 100K bbls/yr with additions of Incline Cider and more recently added San Juan Seltzer on top of Ninkasi/Ecliptic and Wings & Arrow. But a good chunk of its volume is in hard cider and hard seltzer, and not all of it is fully-owned by Great Frontier.Other large cider cos like Blake's Beverage and Schilling Cider produce around or over 100K bbls/yr, including Blake's at 2 mil cases/yr. And several indie beyond beer cos in the hard seltzer/FMB game and/or RTD wine & spirits game are well above 100K bbls/yr, whether its large portfolios from Sazerac, Gallo and Boston, brands that sold to larger entities like BeatBox, or other emerging growth cos like Happy Dad, Carbliss, Long Drink and Patco/MPL.

Craft Feels the Crunch in Tough Yr for Beer: Down Almost 1.6 Mil Bbls in 2025 with Few Top Cos Growing

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