Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

CSD volume sagged 2.6% (vs -2.1% for 12 wks) last 4 wks thru Feb 9 in Nielsen mid-cycle update for all-channel, reported by Morgan Stanley’s Dara Mohsenian.  Coca-Cola volume improved to -0.1% (vs -1% for 12 wks) as its avg price increase came down a percentage point to +4.9% last 4 wks.  PepsiCo volume fell significantly, off 6.4% (down from -4.6% for 12 wks) as its avg price increase rose to +6.7% last 4 wks.  Keurig Dr Pepper CSD volume was down 2.5% (vs -1.4% for 12 wks) with solid avg price hike of 7.8% last 4 wks in all-channel. 

MNST Prices Dragging Volume Down; Red Bull Gains  Energy drink category volume gain accelerated a bit to +8.1% (vs +7.7% for 12 wks) despite avg price increase of 4.6% last 4 wks.  Monster Energy volume gain slowed to +1.8% (down from +2.2% for 12 wks, +7.8% for 52 wks) with avg price increase of 6.6% last 4 wks.  Red Bull volume was up solid 11.3% on small avg price drop of 0.7% last 4 wks.  Rockstar volume slipped further, off 7% (vs -5.7% for 12 wks) as its avg price increase was up a percentage point to +2.4%.  Note there was no breakout of Bang trends in this data set, unfortunately.  PepsiCo energy brands continue to struggle, as its volume declined 23.8% on avg price increase of 2.9% last 4 wks.  

Sports Slump Back  Sports drinks volume declined 2.4% last 4 wks as avg price increase edged a bit higher to +4.6%. That’s double segment’s volume decline for 12 wks.  PEP (Gatorade) volume was down 5.9% (vs -4.5% for 12 wks) while avg price increase barely changed at +1.9% last 4 wks. KO (likely Powerade, not including Body Armor figures) volume dipped 1.3% on avg price increase of 3.1% last 4 wks. 

Nestle, KO Declines Slow Water Segment’s Gain  Bottled water volume rose 2.9% (down from +3.5% for 12 wks) while avg prices were up 1.6% last 4 wks in all-channel.  Nestle volume tumbled 11.2% as avg price increased 8.7% for 4 wks.  That’s down from 7.5% volume drop for 12 wks.  Coca-Cola water volume was off 3.6% (down from -2.9% for 12 wks) with avg price gain of 2.8% last 4 wks.  PepsiCo water slowed to 0.6% gain (vs +3.6% for 12 wks) as avg price increase rose to +4.6% for 4 wks.  Private-label volume shot up 15.4% on 1% avg price drop last 4 wks. 

Reed’s has tapped wine & spirits house Young’s Market to distribute its hard ginger brew in Southern Calif and diversified house Odom to service Pac NW, ceo Val Stalowir said. For its forthcoming hemp-based line, co is going with craft beer distributors among its DSD base. Tho CBD sector is highly unsettled, Val noted that co is being cautious in not using CBD isolate in recipe and not calling it CBD, rather calling it Wellness Ginger Beer with Hemp Extract (BBI, Feb 19). “We are jumping in with a fantastic product and brand and we will start swimming,” he said of strategy. Items will be available for sampling at Natural Products Expo West in Anaheim, Calif, in early Mar.

Fernhill Beverage of Carlsbad, Calif, has signed deal with youth sports org Gamepoint Basketball to develop sports-related bev lines under Gamepoint brand and logo. Imminent product line will be electrolyte-infused sport water in proprietary 20-oz bottle whose bulbous top will be sheathed in shrink label with image of basketball. It will initially go out thru Gamepoint program as fundraising tool before being released to retail. Then by Jun the partners will release line of water-based, fruit-flavored bevs in spherical 12-oz package targeting large-format retailers. “This partnership fits perfectly within the goal of Fernhill Beverage to dominate the youth beverage market,” said Fernhill chmn Larry Twombly. “We want to be the first option for fun beverages for kids from 2 to 20 years old!” Twombly, recall, was creator of now-defunct Hat Trick Beverage who spent some time in penalty box of public opinion after his inspirational story of recovery from motorcycle accident that derailed his promising hockey career proved to be largely fabricated (BBI, Dec 17 2008). As was case with Hat Trick, Fernhill is public co whose shares are traded over the counter via symbol FHBC.

Over past 25 years, AriZona Iced Tea has trod a notably solitary path, staying resolutely independent, not bringing in any outside capital during its growth years, building its own distribution system in key markets and being unapologetic about according outside brands less focus if they opted to ride on AriZona trucks.  Now, in unusual move, Long Island-based co has set alliance with entrepreneur Josh Taekman to help formulate, package, produce and distribute his eBoost powdered energy supplement as a canned RTD item called EBoost Super Fuel Natural Energy + Recovery.  For Taekman, it provides resources, infrastructure and expertise to get into daunting RTD game, while for AriZona it offers chance to harness outsider’s creative vision at time it’s struggled to build superpremium adjunct to its core iced tea and juice biz, which have plateaued.  New line is breaking in NYC via AriZona distribution network and next month at retailers Sprout’s Farmers Market and HEB, Josh told us yesterday.

Positioned in large-font letters as “your kick in a can,” Super Fuel is packed in 12-oz slim cans and offers 110 mg of caffeine from green coffee seed and green tea, 10 vitamins & minerals, key electrolytes, the recovery ingredients Hovenia Dulcis and milk thistle as well as nootropics like Huperzine-A and resveratrol.  With sweetness derived from orange juice, honey and stevia, entries come in at modest 10-20 calories per can.  Initial range of flavors is Sparkling Strawberry Lemonade, Sparkling Ginger Lime and Sparkling Orange Mango, in color-coded cans.  The items, which carry nutritional supplement panel, go out at $2.99 per can.

Gestation of product line makes for interesting story, as recounted by Taekman yesterday afternoon, at very moment his team was selling brand into its first 20 retail accounts in trendy Williamsburg nabe in Brooklyn.  EBoost’s core “super powder” has done well, Taekman said, by providing natural energy, vitamins and minerals – “clean fuel for a better you,” per latest rebranding.  And a shot extension has done well enough to stay in the mix, but has suffered like other energy shot plays from “collateral damage” of segment leader 5-Hour Energy, whose artificial ingredients carry a stigma among consumers EBoost is trying to reach.  While EBoost shots managed to get good placements in stores’ checkout areas, their velocities have been modest.  So it was clear company needed to go all the way to offering a RTD.

But that’s daunting task, financially and logistically.  Enter AriZona.  Taekman said he was familiar with cofounder Don Vultaggio’s 2 sons, Wesley and Spencer, who’ve been increasingly involved in running biz, from their Soho nabe in Manhattan, encountering each other at the gym and social occasions.  A “meet-&-greet” to talk biz 4-5 years ago planted seed for future collaboration, when time and product were right, Josh recalled.  The biggest barrier, he said, was need to convince patriarch Don that he could deliver on flavor front.

The RTD project was set up as joint venture independent of EBoost’s core powder and shot biz.  Development work was done with AriZona’s longtime flavor house, Allen Flavors, and once liquid passed muster with AriZona team, it helped procure 12-oz slim cans during time that supplies are squeezed.  It also helped line up AriZona copacker for production.  (AriZona itself musters considerable production capacity, but not for 12-oz slim can format.)  Taekman’s allies helped him deal with inevitable setbacks: for instance, when supplier Ball was unable to deliver white cans for printed-on label, partners segued to shrink wrap.  It also helped outfit a van and driver for new brand.  First production run amounted to 500K cans.  Under agreement, it’s responsibility of EBoost’s dedicated sales force to place brand at retail “one zipcode at a time,” as Taekman put it, and AriZona fleet to deliver it.  If brand develops momentum, those duties ultimately will be taken over by AriZona, which will consider moving it into other distribution areas like Florida and Chicago. 

 Hormel Foods has bailed on its efforts to turn around its struggling Muscle Milk brand, unloading sports nutrition marque to brand’s longtime distribution partner PepsiCo.  Move announced yesterday evening for undisclosed terms puts to rest lingering embarrassment for Hormel, which saw acquisition of Muscle Milk parent CytoSport as way to play in on-the-go protein biz, while bolstering PepsiCo’s Gatorade-branded sports bev biz that lately has been under assault from fast-growing Body Armor.  Hormel promised further details on its earnings call on Thurs morning, but it’s likely PepsiCo paid far less than it would have had to pay on first go-round, when it was believed to be among bidders for CytoSport.  CytoSport also includes plant-based protein play called Evolve that’s vying with rash of indie entrants.  It said it anticipates deal will close in 30-60 days.  Memo to trade partners shared with BBI indicated that Hormel’s Century Foods Int’l unit will continue to copack CytoSport products. 

“PepsiCo has deep expertise and experience in the sports nutrition category and has been a long-standing distribution partner for CytoSport and the Muscle Milk brand, which puts them in a strong position to grow this dynamic business,” said Hormel chmn, prexy & ceo Jim Snee, who last May assured Wall Street that Muscle Milk brand was “a keeper” and said all hands were on deck to get it back on track (BBI, May 25).  “We look forward to working with PepsiCo to ensure a smooth transition for our team members, suppliers, customers and consumers.”

In note last night, Consumer Edge Research’s Brett Cooper said deal is “unlikely to be meaningful to (Pepsi’s) financials . . . The impact on earnings per share should be less than 1% of earnings and was clearly known when the company offered guidance on Friday.”  After suffering steep sales decreases thru much of 2017, some of it blamed on aggressive price promos by Coca-Cola’s milk-based Core Power brand, Muscle Milk got back into growth mode in 2018 and has been up 6% in past 12 wks in tracked channels, with just 35% ACV, per data cited by Cooper.  “We have to imagine that PepsiCo, with the reward of full margins and the outlay of capital, will look to expand distribution,” he wrote.  It’s possible Pepsi brass will have something to say on deal during their presentation to Consumer Analyst Group of NY in Boca Raton, Fla, later today.

Austin-based kombucha brewer called KTonic is betting that consumers will opt for tea-forward, lower-sugar recipes with line that’s heralded as “all-tea kombucha.”  Early-stage brand, which first hit local shelves in mid-2015 but now goes out thru all Central Market stores in Tex and has gotten foothold in indie stores in San Antonio and Dallas, is partnership between Greg Goodman and Bryan Schmitz, brothers-in-law who’re self-financing effort so far. 

The subtly formulated entries, which BBI editor encountered on recent trip to Austin, eschews use of juice to offer delicately balanced recipes like The Original (ginger, lemongrass), Master K (which adds cayenne kick to Original as cleansing item), Cherry Blossom (sencha green tea with cherry essence, black pepper spice, cardamom, calendula) and Golden Flower (chrysanthemum flowers, orange peel, rose hips).  KTonic’s founding was outgrowth of Whole Foods’ category-wide recall of 2010 over alcohol issues, depriving Goodman of the GT’s Synergy line he’d taken a liking too.  Since he didn’t like the sparse alternatives available in Austin, he started homebrewing his own, using “any old stuff,” even old teabags, as base and adding fruit and juice.  But his view of what brews could be evolved during his travels as transportation consultant, when he began to encounter local kombuchas that were less sweet and more tea-forward.  That set him in new direction, prompting eventual decision to team up with Schmitz to go commercial (tho he’s hung onto day job).  As a musician and sound engineer with beer-brewing experience, Schmitz has shown a knack for figuring out operational challenges, while Goodman focuses on sales & marketing and new-flavor development.  So far they employ just a pair of full-time production workers as they plot expansion that will include broader geographic push and significant increment of production capacity.

As Greg recalled in interview yesterday, it was Bryan’s experience with forced carbonation on brewing side that enabled KTonic to devise ways to avoid secondary fermentation, enabling it to keep sugar content lower, generally in range of 3 g, or 32-33 calories per 8-oz serving.  (It’s packed in 16-oz glass bottles.)  That attribute is heralded prominently on labels that position KTonic as “single fermentation kombucha,” while also screaming “low sugar” and “no added juice” on side panel.  Among other flavors, Flor de Jamaica attempts to add Texas touch via use of regionally sourced hibiscus along with ginger, lemon thyme and tarragon.  Info at KTonicKombucha.com.

Rowdy Mermaid Kombucha passed its Series A funding milestone, and once again it was KarpReilly that wrote biggest check.  The Greenwich, Conn-based PE firm led $3.5 mil round that will fund expansion within western states, a packaging revamp and move to more environmentally friendly cans and multipacks, the Boulder, Colo, co announced.  Also due for intro is “nootropic, function-forward brew,” with details possible as soon as Expo West in early Mar, per Rowdy.  The investment puts Rowdy in company of such other KarpReilly-allied bevcos as Spindrift, LifeAid, Koia, Iconic and Zola, the latter wholly owned by Karp.  Rowdy IDed as other participants in round Justin’s founder Justin Gold and Bare Naked and EVOL Foods cofounder Brendan Synnott.  “A big initiative for 2019 will be a switch to clean supply chains and sustainable packaging to increase our presence and offerings while being mindful of environmental concerns: curbing production waste, extending shelf life and increasing the functionality of the product,” said founder/ceo Jamba Dunn. 

Reed’s Inc is planning pilot test in Q2 of Wellness Ginger Beer with Hemp Extract in Pacific Northwest, making it one of more established bev players to test waters of promising but highly uncertain segment.  New item, disclosed in 8-K financial statement filed Fri by publicly traded REED, will be packed in 10-oz sleek can that differentiates it from core non-CBD items, priced at $3.99 per can, in line with CBD entries already in market.  Co hopes to use its existing distribution partners as much as possible to get new line to retail.  As functional base, co is employing Las Vegas-based NanoBiologics Research Corp’s broad spectrum hemp extract, which filing describes as “water soluble nano emulsification technology that delivers superior bioavailability, faster absorption and higher potency than standard hemp extracts.”

Also heading toward a pilot is a RTD Moscow Mule.  That entry, using malt base and out in regular and zero-sugar versions, is anticipated to hit test in Southern Calif and Pac NW regions by end of 2d quarter, in similar 12-oz cans to base brand, priced at $9.99 per 4-pack, ceo Val Stalowir told us yesterday evening.  Reed’s hopes to tap beer and spirit distributors in its current mix of DSD partners for test.

Bringing to fruition idea that founder/ceo Greg Steltenpohl said has been gestating for 6-7 years, Califia Farms at Expo West will intro oat-based bev line called Ubermilk that includes all 8 essential fatty acids and range of vitamins and minerals for one of more nutrient-dense plant milks in market.  New line due for unveiling in coupla weeks at big Anaheim, Calif, show will be available this spring in co’s characteristic 48-oz plastic carafe bottles, in Unsweetened, Unsweetened Vanilla and Chocolate flavors, starting at Whole Foods.  Items all contain 8 g of plant-based protein from peas, oats and sunflower seeds along with plant oils that bring Omegas 3, 6 and 9, and calcium, iron, vitamin D, potassium, and vitamin E.  By not relying entirely on peas and other so-called pulses for protein, Ubermilk manages to offer higher nutritional availability as measured by Protein Digestibility Corrected Amino Acid Score (PDCAAS).  Using co’s recently debuted oatmilk as its base, new line will command about 20% premium to Califia’s range of almondmilks and other plant-based items. 

In interview yesterday, Steltenpohl said he’d dreamed of offering no-compromise item like this for 6-7 years, enlisting Califia’s R&D chief Dr Geoff Margolis to help him bring to fruition a drink with high protein availability and creamy mouthfeel and flavor.  Tho Califia is best-known for its almondmilks, Ubermilk adds completely allergen-free entry to portfolio, as well as one with considerably more protein oomph than the almondmilks offer.  Tho Califia has been playing catchup in oatmilk segment ignited mainly by Sweden’s Oatly brand, Greg reminded that it’s not like he’d never appreciated virtues of ingredient: after all, he’d offered oatmilk entry back in mid-1990s during his Odwalla days, under name Future Shake.  That future is now, it seems.  

Life on Earth, which acquired Just Chill focus and relaxation brand last year, said it’s moving line into CBD realm, via Organic CBD-Infused High Alkaline Waters and Organic Hemp-Infused Drinks due this summer. “We’ve been getting consumer feedback for quite some time that they’d like to see our Just Chill brand naturally evolve in this direction, and we’re excited to be able to deliver this to our dedicated and growing consumer base,” said ceo Fernando Oswaldo Leonzo. Core Just Chill line employs patented version of L-theanine called SunTheanine as core amino acid promoting focus and calmness.