Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Tho cold-brewed coffee shelf sets are starting to look more cluttered and pricing has been getting more promotional, newer entrants are still launching or expanding, including pair of Midwest-based brands profiled here that are ready to hit the coasts.  And we picked up word that category pioneer Blue Bottle, which has kept its packaged lineup lean, is ready to add another canned flavor.

Cadence Expands Nitro Cold-Brews, Adds CBD Entry Next Month    Cadence Cold Brew is nitro-infused, unsweetened canned line that’s husband-&-wife effort out of Madison, Wis, now in its fourth year.  Ray Lavalley brought experience from natural/organic sector to project while his wife Jen Lavalley is former marketer.  Both had been seeking options not loaded with sweeteners or creamers, nor too harsh on palate.  Their refrigerated line seeks to capture cold-brew peak when liquid contains hint of sweetness without need for sugar.  Line is priced at $2.99-3.49 per 11-oz slim can, which carries elaborate filigree of plant imagery against black background for striking appearance next to earth tones of other cold-brew items.

Current lineup comprises 4 flavors, 1 of them certified organic, all unsweetened and coming in 17 calories or under.  Conventional entries are South American Blend, Single Origin Ethiopian and South American & Ethiopian Blend, with South American Blend also available in organic version.  “Cadence is daily decadence,” is slogan, heralding luxurious drinking experience without fat or sugar.  Coming shortly is Broad Spectrum CBD Cold Brew, using hemp extract and unsweetened South American cold brew.

Couple started with kegs but eventually bought their own canning line, focusing efforts until now on Twin Cities, Chicago and other parts of Midwest.  Lately they’ve been expanding into Denver, Texas and eastern metros, entering such chains as HEB and Ahold banners.  Fancy Food Show presence heralded receptivity to entering West Coast markets, with duo now ready to raise some outside growth capital, Jen told us.  Info at CadenceColdBrew.com.

Big Watt Adds Lavender, Toasted Honey Nut Flavors, Works with Ball to Revive Guinness-Style Widget for Nitro   Out of Twin Cities comes Big Watt Cold Press Coffee – “coffee uncompromised,” per its tagline – that employs proprietary process to get 12-month shelf life without pasteurization, tho 12-oz cans must travel via cold channel.  At show, brand launched by founders Lee Carter, Jason Westplate and Caleb Garn extended its single Circuit Bender uncut flavor with pair of flavored entries: Salted Lavender Grapefruit entry dubbed May Day and Toasted Honey Nut Vanilla entry dubbed Bear & The Barrel (named after local vaudeville troupe).  (Unusually, the flavor names appear nowhere on front panel, instead running discreetly down side of can.)  May Day, with 11 g of sugar, comes in at 40 calories – “just sweet enough to carry the flavor,” said Westgate – while Bear & The Barrel, using toasted almonds, comes in at 9 g and 35 calories.  They’re priced at $3.49-3.99.

By now, brand is available in 18 states and about 1K points of distribution, including Safeway chain west to Rocky Mountain region.  Also in retail mix are Midwestern banners like Meijer, Sendik’s, Lunds & Byerlys and HyVee, as well as Central Market in Tex.  It employs mix of national distributors UNFI and KeHe and regional players Market Distributing, Co-op Partners Warehouse and Horizon (in Texas).  Jason readily acknowledged it’s been tough to crack West Coast market, given high loyalty to region’s numerous players, tho brand is available in Erewhon natural chain.  But he said velocity often comes in double that of top national brands.

Among interesting facets of plan, co relies heavily on its bricks-&-mortar operation in Minneapolis to test out new concepts, with more likely headed to packaged side soon, including most likely nitro entries that have long been staple of Minneapolis shop.  Westgate said co is working with can maker Ball to return to availability the style of widget can popularized by Guinness in earliest days of canned nitro, rather than relying on nitrous oxide as some brands do or having explosive delivery as some other brands suffer.  Tho co regards its proprietary process as a definite edge, Westgate acknowledged that it’s not effective for dairy or dairy-alternative items, should Big Watt choose to head in that direction.  Info at BigWattCoffee.com.

Blue Bottle to Extend Canned Line with Bold Entry   Cold-brew pioneer Blue Bottle, now owned by Nestle, isn’t standing still either.  Its Three Africas blend, out 2 years now in distinctive squat 8-oz cans, is being joined in Apr by Bold entry, with richer, more viscous profile, show staffers said at show in SF, its home base.  Blue Bottle also goes out with small gabletops for its creamed cold-brew entries.

 CSD volume decline slowed to -1.4% even as avg prices continued to post healthy gains (+6.2%) last 4 wks thru Jan 12 in Nielsen all-channel data reported by Morgan Stanley’s Dara Mohsenian.  So CSD sales grew 4.8% on healthy pricing thru period including Christmas and New Year holidays.  Coca-Cola CSD volume slipped just 0.2% (vs -1.4% for 12 wks) with solid avg price increase of 6.4% for 4 wks.  PepsiCo CSD volume decline slowed slightly to -3% with avg price gain of 5.6% for latest 4 wks.  Keurig Dr Pepper CSD volume was off 1.7%, a bit steeper vs 12 wk-decline, but avg prices were up solid 7% for those 4 wks.  Private-label volume decline slowed as well, down 1.6% (vs -2.2% for 12 wks) on higher avg price increase of 3.6% last 4 wks.

Energy Volume Gain Accelerated Even on Higher Pricing   Energy drink volume gain improved to +8.8% (up from +7.8% for 12 wks) as avg price increase was up solid 4.9% for 4 wks thru Jan 12 in all-channel.  Red Bull got big volume gain, up 12% (up from +10.3% for 12 wks), with boost coming from small (-0.7%) avg price cut.  (On earnings call last Thurs, Monster Beverage execs took note of aggressive pricing by rival around holidays.)  Monster Energy volume was up 3.3% despite hefty 8.2% avg price gain for 4 wks.  Rockstar volume decline got worse, off 4.7% as avg prices went from flat for 12 wks to +2.3% last 4 wks.  PEP energy brands still down double digits (-16.5%) on modest (+0.8%) rise in avg price.

Better Sports Trends   Sports drink volume improved from 0.9% decline for 12 wks to 1.3% gain on avg price increase of 4.4% last 4 wks in all-channel.  That matched price gain for segment for 12 wks as well.  PEP (Gatorade) volume was off 2.8% (an improvement from -4.1% for 12 wks) with avg price gain of 2.2% last 4 wks.  KO (likely just Powerade data, not Body Armor) swung from 1.1% decline for 12 wks to 3.8% volume gain last 4 wks as avg price increase came down a bit to +2.7%.  (Note there is no separate info on Body Armor provided in this report.  Unclear if figures for KO would include both Powerade and Body Armor, but seems unlikely considering Body Armor was up near 120% for 52 wks thru Dec 29.)   

Rising Tide in Water   Bottled water volume and pricing trends improved over last 4 wks. Volume up 3.9% (vs +3.6% for 12 wks) on avg price gain of 2.5%. Nestle water volume (4%) continued to get hit on higher avg prices (+5.8%) last 4 wks.  Coca-Cola water volume managed a slight gain (+0.1%) while avg price increased edged higher to +2.2% last 4 wks.  PepsiCo water was up 3.7% (down from +4.3% for 12 wks) as avg price gain shot up to +5.1% last 4 wks.  Remember, breakout of higher-end waters would show far more robust trend; data reported here is dominated by likes of Dasani, Aquafina and PureLife.

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Alkaline Water Co said it entered into management & services deal with Austin-based Water Source One to expand production and distribution of its core Alkaline 88 brand. WSO will provide production support via network of 30 bottling plants, customer service and regulatory support, quality assurance management, and raw materials and logistical support. Alliance comes just ahead of plans by Scottsdale, Ariz-based co to add infused-bev entries like flavored Alkaline Water and Hemp Water . . . Now it’s cascara and beer: intriguing collaboration is teaming Stolen Sun Brewery of Exton, Penn, with Peloton Cascara Tea of nearby West Chester to offer Belgian Cascara Artisan Ale using Peloton’s organic cascara, using both beans and husk of coffee plant.

One of longest-serving execs at Voss Water, Mark Zettle, has gotten elevated to prexy of sales for the Americas, with responsibility for all retail, foodservice and on-premise sales in North, Central and South America, along with continued role in strategic decision-making process. Mark has been steady hand during 14-year career at Norwegian import that’s included period of considerable turmoil when business unraveled and founder departed, then turnaround under ceo Jack Belsito that lately has hit some speed bumps, with Belsito and other members of senior team departing and significant layoff in lower tiers as co seeks new tranche of financing and tilts many of its efforts to promising Asian market, where core investor Reignwood Group has significant presence as Red Bull distributor in China. In confirming promotion that we spotted on LinkedIn, Mark said he’s also serving as point person for partnership with Pepsi spanning on-premise biz and handful of retail markets. His earlier title was svp sales. Earlier in his career he spent 6 years at Nestle Waters North America, giving him 2 decades’ of experience in bottled water biz . . . “They sound like the ingredients of a pulpy thriller: Bigamy. Secret religious conversions. A doctorate from a mail-order diploma mill. Affairs with powerful women,” breathlessly opens recent NY Times piece about Tim Leissner, former partner whom Goldman Sachs is portraying as rogue exec responsible for massive scandal connected to looting of Malaysian investment fund. Story lede also could have added: “And Celsius investor and former board member.” Tho Goldman ties usually confer degree of star power, CELH has had inopportune run with iconic investment bank, first putting on its board a former Goldman banker named Roger Ng whose name was “scrubbed off the website of Celsius Holdings” when scandal broke, per Bloomberg story from late Aug. Story noted that CELH announced that Leissner would be joining board in Apr 2015, but after leaving Goldman in early 2016 he resigned Celsius seat in May 2017. It’s not clear whether he remains investor. He’s married to Kimora Lee Simmons, ex-wife of Russell Simmons; both of them key Celsius investors who came in at pivotal time when co was in early stages of turnaround following departure of founding team.

Early stage Zest Tea brand in Baltimore has pulled in $1 mil in new capital as it expands its canned tea-based energy line thru 7-Eleven chain and beyond, Baltimore Sun reported. Newspaper listed as its investors the Maryland Momentum Fund, a $10 million venture of University System of Maryland, and Lord Baltimore Fund, venture fund associated with Amoco heirs the Blaustein family, along with some angel investors. Univ of Maryland grad James Fayal founded Zest Tea in Philadelphia in 2014, then moved it to Baltimore a year later. It claims to have nearly 2K retail accounts, including Harris Teeter, Safeway, Walmart, Whole Foods and 7-E’s Mid-Atlantic stores. It offers both bagged and canned teas that play in emerging plant-based energy space.

Cannabis-infused beverages continue to get tons of coverage and attention, so no real surprise that “rise of beverages” is one of BDS Analytics’ top-10 trends to watch in 2019, co-founder Roy Bingham and vp of consumer insights Jessica Lukas shared during latest webinar.  Bevs were just 5% of edible sales tracked by BDS, which totaled $612 mil in 2018, Jessica shared.  So infused bevs reached $30 mil or so in tracked data.  All told, edibles were ~12% of total legal cannabis sales, or roughly $1.5 bil in 2018, BDS estimates. Yet edibles expected to grow to over $4 bil in sales, 14% of total legal sales by 2022.  And bevs projected to grow to $375 mil, reaching ~9% of total edible sales.  Then too, with passage of Farm Bill and influx of acquisitive bevcos, BDS believes CBD beverages could be a $1 bil industry by 2022 in general mkt (excluding dispensary channel sales), Jess added.  Consumers are used to bevs “as a vessel for functional ingredients” (think caffeine, energy, probiotics) and that’s why bevs continue to get so much attention in these early stages of development, she supposed.

Social Consumption, Concentrates, Low-Doses, Brands, CBD, Convenience and More Trending in 2019   On top of bevs, BDS highlighted several other trends expected to emerge or further develop in 2019 (in no particular order).  Lower-dosed products will continue to grow, allowing for more controllable experiences with faster onsets, often geared toward less-experienced consumers.  Tho can’t forget “core” consumers, Roy and Jess warned, who typically are willing to spend more for quality.  Branded products will continue to gain ground as well, now up to 45% of total sales in Colorado, and virtually all (95%) of edibles in Colo tracked sales.  Social consumption lounges expected to emerge in 2019, as San Fran already allows, with cities like Las Vegas expected to follow, and Denver expected to try again to pass legislation, among others, Roy noted. Lines will continue to blur among occasions as consumers often list both recreational and medical reasons for consuming cannabis. Concentrates (mostly consumed via vaporizers) are expected grow fastest and gain most mkt share over the next handful of years, projected to gain over 10 share of US cannabis sales to 36 share by 2022, becoming equally as large as flower sales in US. CBD products in the general mkt (outside of dispensaries) will be a trend to watch in 2019, as food & bevs expected to play a big role. Research shows nearly 2/3 of consumers don’t clearly understand distinction between CBD and THC, Jessica noted, so lots of education still needed. And convenience is key trend that retailers and producers alike will look to build upon in 2019 – this includes “the ultimate convenience,” that is, delivery/e-commerce methods expected to emerge.  (This article was adapted from an earlier version in sibling publication Insights Express.)
(More detail from this report, and much more beyond that, will be included in special report on cannabis and its intersection with bevs being produced by the Beer Marketer’s Insights and Beverage Business Insights team (see below).

Three months into new brand’s test in Atlanta, Coca-Cola finally was ready on Fri to announce its new mocktail experiment under Bar None moniker.  Announcement didn’t offer much more product and positioning detail than we’d already been able to glean on our own (BBI, Oct 5 and Nov 27): it’s going out in Spiced Ginger Mule, Bellini Spritz, Dry Aged Cider and Sangria flavors, sweetened with juice or cane sugar and clocking in at 70-130 calories per 12-oz longneck glass bottle, at $7.99 per 4-pack at retail.  But release also painted picture of how, impressively for a co of Coke’s size, concept took only 10 months to go from brainstorming to store and bar shelves, thanks to use of resources that were almost entirely outside of Coca-Cola, from external R&D agency to freelance graphic designer to East Coast copacker to local beer-&-wine distributor.  (A KO rep declined to identify the outside partners.)  Team led by VEB exec Sabrina Tandon did work with KO’s own bev quality and scientific and regulatory affairs (SRA) teams to accelerate the launch, per announcement.  Brand’s various taglines were devised via crowd-sourcing platform.  VEB, of course, is Venturing & Emerging Brands, KO’s decade-old incubation unit.

Inevitably, mythology that KO is putting behind Bar None is that Tandon and her colleagues were grumbling about how they drink less these days but couldn’t find anything in the market that met their needs.  That’s when lightbulb went off, leading Coke to become “a first mover” in space.  (Never mind that in recent years we’ve seen scores of NA cocktail-alternative entries, often citing similar creation myth).  No word yet from KO on when brand might expand beyond Atlanta area, as Coca-Cola takes its time ensuring that concept is resonating.  Line is available online, however.

Diet Coke Doubles Down on Exotic Flavors    Diet Coke is another brand within Coke empire that’s letting consumers call some of the shots.  After relying on input from 2,000 consumers to generate initial lineup of new flavors last year – Ginger Lime, Feisty Cherry, Zesty Blood Orange and Twisted Mango – it’s gone to same shortlist of 20 flavors to add another pair this month, Blueberry Acai and Strawberry Guava, as it continues with initiative that got long-declining brand back on growth track.  Entries are available in 12-oz slim cans, singly or via 8-packs, and are being backed by 15-city, 100-college-campus sampling tour running thru Aug.

 At Beverage Digest Future Smarts conference in NY last month, Dirty Lemon founder Zak Normandin cited host of practical reasons for why text-messaging-based marketer was withdrawing its CBD entry as too close to the bleeding edge (BBI, Dec 21).  But we hear that it still was target of several enforcement actions last week, tho co said they proved fruitless as it had discontinued production.  Move came as further cautionary sign, amid the ebullience about passage of the Farm Bill and numerous legalization moves at state level, that cannabis/hemp realm is new frontier that carries lotsa legal uncertainty.  Recall also that recent minority investor in parent co Iris Nova, leading $15 mil round, is Coca-Cola, which remains skittish about perils of that sector after reports that it was sniffing around ignited frenzy of speculation. 

An Iris Nova rep said this afternoon, “We can confirm that last week there was an unannounced visit by FDA agents to more than one of our production facilities and their sole intention was to confiscate and destroy any CBD beverage products.  Fortunately, because we discontinued the sale and production of our CBD beverage in December, we were unaffected by the visit.” 

And in a statement to BBI, Zak reiterated as he did at Bev Digest that it’s delicate time for those hoping to build out CBD bev category.  “While the passage of the Farm Bill allows for the legal cultivation of industrial hemp, the FDA has maintained its position that CBD (hemp-derived or otherwise) is prohibited for use in food and beverage products or supplements.  Our intention in taking our +CBD beverage off the market in November was to get ahead of any impending enforcement by the FDA.  We remain committed to this decision, which ensures our success as an organization and protects the brand long-term.”

Meanwhile, Iris Nova, which manages both the Dirty Lemon brand and Drug Store self-serve retail platform, continues to motor forward, building out its team.  Latest aboard is Tio Gazpacho founder Austin Allan, newly available following acquisition of drinkable soup maker by Jarritos importer Novamex (BBI, Dec 20).  Austin, who was involved in all aspects of Tio Gazpacho from its recipes to e-commerce, has taken on post of senior dir of special projects for brand that’s noteworthy for its tilt toward “conversational commerce” as its core sales strategy, as well as buzz-generating stunts like its pop-up stores.  Allan joins at time that Dirty Lemon is stepping up its product release sked to one every month, as Normandin explained to his Bev Digest audience last month.  Allan, who told us he’ll remain in NY, where Iris Nova is based, joins team that includes Koa Olakino founder Adam Louras, who’s opened West Coast base for co in LA. 

The North American beer and beverage industry is seeing green. Get the latest special report from Beer Marketer’s INSIGHTS to help separate the news from the noise: Cannabis INSIGHTS 2019 will arm you with the data, research and perspective you need to get a handle on this dynamic, disruptive category.  Explore sales and science, players and policy, state revenues and survey results, M&A, marketing moves and much more. This 100+-page exclusive report is designed specifically for execs in the beer and beverage industries. Coming in late March, Cannabis INSIGHTS 2019 will deepen your understanding of the possible opportunities and pitfalls cannabis presents for your business. Stop feeling whipsawed between glowing media coverage and opinionated nay-saying. Dig into the details with the clear-headed coverage in Cannabis INSIGHTS 2019 to deeply address the interactions between cannabis and beveragesFind more info on this deep-dive report and  order today for the low price of $300.  

More Fancy Food Show coverage coming in forthcoming issues, readers!