Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Shares of Dunkin' Brands surged 8% Mon on market speculation that acquisitive JAB may be interested in adding co to its restaurant and coffee empire. (Shares edged up a bit further in trading today.) "While this isn't the first time a deal has been speculated between the 2 companies, the market reaction appeared to imply more credibility this time around," Jeremy Scott, senior research analyst at Mizuho Securities, wrote in research note cited by CNBC. "JAB has been an aggressive acquirer over the past 3 years, paying substantial premiums for coffee and bakery brands in both retail and restaurants." He was referring to deals like recent acquisition of Panera Bead, at time that JAB has been selling off luxury fashion holdings and increasing its cash reserves. After selling Jimmy Choo for $1.2 bil in Jul, it just unloaded Belstaff on Mon. Of course, Dunkin' would be pricy deal and some skeptics note that its growth opportunities have been constrained lately. Other JAB holdings include Caribou Coffee, Einstein Bagel, Peet's Coffee and Keurig Green Mountain . . . Flamboyant TV guru Jim Cramer is banging drum for Coca-Cola to acquire rest of Monster Beverage as way to reignite growth and share value. CNBC's Mad Money host acknowledges that "optics" may not be ideal, given KO's emphasis on healthier bevs these days, and others note that ticket price would exceed $30 bil at time that MNST's growth has dramatically subsided. Recent months have brought new round of rumors that KO, under new ceo James Quincey, may be evaluating move on MNST, but many BBI contacts still regard that as long-odds bet.

As anticipated by Coke N Amer chief Sandy Douglas last week (BBI, Oct 25), giant Reyes Bev Group deal to buy Calif and Nev bottling and distribution rights closed Fri. With closing of this deal, Reyes will now sell over 300 mil cases of Coca Cola products on an annualized basis, more than double what it sells in beer - remarkable feat, considering that co just edged into Coke biz a few years ago, in Chicago. With this and other deals that closed in last couple of days, Coke has now "completed the company's largest refranchising initiative," co said. "Bottling partners have worked together to execute 60 transitions, which include 350 distribution centers, over 50 production facilities, over 55,000 employees and over 1.3 billion physical cases of volume." Coke's "new system is working to reinvent the future of the business, especially in key areas such as portfolio diversification, packaging innovation, production, procurement, technology and pricing… The system also operates on a new IT platform to digitize the Coca Cola system and significantly improves he ability to coordinate and manage information across bottling partners at both local and national levels." Does all this suggest that Coke, creating system of indy operators, has moved ahead of not just Pepsi but beer cos in terms of its distribution platform? For its part, PEP has maintained it's not undoing acquisition of its largest US bottlers with its own refranchising push, insisting it believes in unified system.

Rocky Mountain High Brands, Dallas-based cannabis play that's been seeking some strategic stability under guidance of former Celsius chief Gerry David, has brought aboard bev vet John Blackington as chief commercial officer. John, a former Coke exec who's been running consultancy GBS Growth Partnership out of Dallas over past decade or so, has numbered Celsius among his clients, along with other brands like Soylent, Bolthouse Farms and Trimino Protein Water. Blackington assured BBI GBS will continue to fully service its roster of clients despite his accepting staff post at publicly traded RMHB. His role there calls for him to manage product development, marketing, sales and customer service, co said. RMHB chmn, prexy & ceo Michael Welch said he expects new hire to play crucial role thanks to his having "jumpstarted a number of successful new brands in critical areas ranging from building sales and distribution systems, expanding retail availability, developing equity strategies and sourcing capital. He has a passion for leading brands to reach commercial success." Blackington readily admitted hemp space is new to him, but said there seems to be particular opportunity for hemp-infused waters that can offer lower-calorie alternative to brownies and other cannabis formats. David, with whom Blackington worked for 4 years at Celsius, retired early this year from Celsius and has taken advisory role to new exec team at RMHB, which has had its share of ups and downs calibrating strategy in shifting cannabis environment in US.

At time beer players in particular are tryin' to get hands around whether cannabis represents threat or opportunity, Corona marketer Constellation Brands startled bev world by taking 9.9% stake in world's largest publicly traded cannabis co, Canopy Growth Corp, $191 mil transaction anticipated to close next month. Deal gives STZ a "toehold" in pot biz "that the brewer expects to be legalized nationwide in the US" in yrs ahead, wrote Wall St Jnl, which broke the news. In press release issued yesterday, STZ said, "This investment and relationship is consistent with Constellation Brand's long-term strategy to identify, meet and stay ahead of evolving consumer trends and market dynamics, while maintaining focus on its core total beverage alcohol business." "We think that it's highly likely, given what's happened at the state level," ceo Rob Sands told Jnl. "We're obviously trying to get first mover advantage."

CSDs' volume decline slowed a bit to -3.4% (down from -3.6% for 12 wks) on avg price increase of 1.7% for 4 wks thru Oct 21 in Nielsen all-channel data reported by Morgan Stanley. Coca-Cola cut its decline in half to -0.6% for 4 wks even while avg prices were unchanged at +2%. But PepsiCo continued to struggle, losing 6% on flat pricing. PEP's full-calorie and diet CSDs each lost about 6% last 4 wks. Dr Pepper Snapple CSD volume fell 3.2% on solid 3.3% price increase. Private-label CSDs still ailing: volume off 5.5% on a small (-0.2%) avg price drop.

Is Milo's Famous Sweet Tea on brink of getting actually famous? All-natural, affordably priced grocery mainstay has been on growth jag that's quietly put it past $100 mil in retail sales, per syndicated data, prompting headquarters expansion and posing some hard choices on production setup and branding. Refrigerated iced tea line that was spun off in late 1980s from in-store offering at popular Alabama eatery held ribbon-cutting last week at Bessemer hq that heralded expansion to 150K sq ft of space on 15.5 acres, a far cry from the 30K ft on 3.5 acres at start of brand's run, back in days when Snapple was glomming all the headlines for its hotfilled natural line. By now Milo's claims to be in 42 states - with New England the remaining void - and spans retailers from Walmart to Whole Foods. It just augmented core line with more upscale-looking organic subline this year. Next on agenda: costing out possibility of establishing West Coast production site, and gauging retailer interest in long-awaited New England entry. And co is tiptoeing towards refresh of approachable but downscale label to better reflect quality of liquid that seems right in synch with where affluent consumers are going these days. Indeed, with its decades-long commitment to brewing from real tea leaves rather than concentrate or powder and using no artificial sweeteners, colors or preservatives, Milo's in many ways has anticipated by decades the recent flock of cold-brewed and other fresh tea alternatives. Except that Milo's single-serves can be purchased for as little as 98 cents. "We always said we're natural before it was cool," said ceo Tricia Wallwork, "because it tastes best that way." Tho Snapple got the buzz back in the 1980s, it's stagnant now, even as Milo's sales seem to be accelerating.

Turns out Platform Brewing shutdowns and layoffs weren't the only cuts made within AB Brewers Collective. "Several" other brewers within Brewers Collective had a round of layoffs, sources shared with CBN and Craft Business Daily first reported.

The dynamic biz of Duvel USA has a number of moving parts that can prove difficult to get going in the same direction all at once. But despite a lack of overall growth in 2022, its leaders feel upbeat in early 2023. And it isn't just pride for the co's hometown Kansas City Chiefs' recent Super Bowl win. The co's Boulevard-branded hard seltzer Quirk "definitely delivered the lion's share" of gains within the portfolio last yr, sales exec veep Bobby Dykstra told CBN. Quirk volume jumped 53%, bucking not only hard seltzer's softness but overcoming additional difficulties faced by most craft seltzers. Duvel USA's significant focus and investment in its home region plus differentiated flavor and taste is paying off, in view of prexy Seraf De Smedt.

Craft beer shipments declined somewhere between low-to-mid single-digits in 2022, available data and current estimates suggest. Still waiting on final 2 mos of TTB reports and potential TTB revisions (as has been customary to large degrees the past coupla yrs). But combo of Beer Inst estimates, TTB and US Dept of Commerce data estimates, plus CBN estimates currently put total beer industry shipments down ~3.5% for the year. Tuff to say craft gained share in 2022. So we estimate craft segment down just over 1 mil bbls, -4%.

Dunkin Donuts is off to flying start in its partnership with Coca-Cola to launch RTD iced coffee, scoring over $100 mil in retail sales in first 9 months, per IRI data, US/Canada prexy David Hoffman told investors on earnings call this week. That's "impressive feat considering that there are very few products that achieved $50 million in retail sales in their first year," he said. Note also that this occurred despite lotsa out-of-stocks caused by production capacity squeeze. Counting over $600 mil that Dunkin' packaged coffee and K-Cups sold over past year, co's total portfolio of consumer packaged goods has grown to over $800 mil biz, he said. "We're feeling really good about our progress across the channels in just a few short years." On call, Dunkin' brass heralded as key new hire Katy Latimer, in as vp of culinary innovation after serving as vp R&D for global beverages at PepsiCo. (In assembling story, we got assist from transcript of call by Thomson Reuters StreetEvents.)