Beer Marketer's Insights
BA Revs Up Strong in 2022 as Events Came Back, But Still Well Below 2019; Legislative Priorities
With its first full CBC and in-person GABF since 2019, Brewers Assn revs surged 34%, by over $6 mil to $23.4 mil in 2022, org reported last wk. All of that gain and then some derived from over $6.9 mil jump in event revs, which got real close to doubling and returned to over 60% of org's total revenue. But total event $$ still around 12% below 2019. Meanwhile, 2nd biggest rev-generator for BA, membership, dipped 3% last yr, now 15% below 2019 levels. Org announced its first dues increase in almost 2 decades, raising rates as of Feb 1. Advertising and sponsorship revenue jumped big in 2022, too, +50%, as org's activity ramped up again. But its $$ derived from ads and sponsorships is well below where it was pre-pandemic, -36% since 2019.
Athletic Brewing's $50-mil minority stake from Keurig Dr Pepper came at valuation of "just under $500 million," with sales up nearly 70% in 2022 to over $60 mil in revs, per lengthy Forbes cover story (subscription) profiling the NA beer darling. Implies KDP got slightly above 10% equity in previously unidentified stake. Plus "heady valuation" of ~8x revenue, according to "sources close to the deal." But recall, no pre-ordained path to ownership, even as KDP gets seat on Athletic's board and "right of first offer" in a liquidity event. And Athletic still yet to turn a profit, expecting to be cash-flow positive by end of yr (see Nov 9 issue).
Drake's to Acquire Bear Republic, Bring Brewing, Sales In-House; Takes Racer 5, But Leaves Facility
First notable craft deal of the year brings together two NorCal stalwarts that believe they're better off together after struggling to compete with smaller upstarts and larger power-players in recent yrs. Drake's will acquire key assets of Bear Republic, the cos announced last wk, picking up "recipes, formulas and intellectual property," most notably the iconic West Coast IPA Racer 5. But the co is not acquiring Bear Republic's primary facility in Cloverdale, instead taking the next few mos to consolidate production at Drake's existing brewery in San Leandro.
3 Floyds Expects Double-Digit Growth in 2023, Pullin' New Levers with 12pks, Zombie Ice & Warpigs
IN's 3 Floyds Brewing quietly and impressively built itself into a regional craft brewer stronghold, surpassing 100K bbls each of the last two years. Now it's planning to ramp up in 2023, seeing a pathway to return to double-digit growth and reach 125K bbls, fueled by its 3 core brands and a few notable new initiatives, sales director Jason McMackins told CBN in wide-ranging chat.
Should Dist Ct Olympic-Constellation Clash Stay or Should It Go? Timing Tussles, Money Trouble
Current questions in ongoing dispute between Washington distrib Olympic Eagle and Constellation both start with "when." When can district court case proceed now that 9th Circuit appeal is pending? And when does Olympic need to respond to that appeal? While the distrib seeks to keep the first case moving as quickly as possible, opposing Constellation's attempt to "stay" or pause the case til the appeal is settled, Olympic asked for more time to file its first brief before the higher appellate court.
OR Commerce Clause Challenge Can Continue, Judge Lets Gov Off Hook as Bourbon Scandal Swirls
Federal judge in Oregon so far opted not to dismiss the lawsuit filed last summer arguing that state laws prohibiting direct-to-consumer shipping and self-distribution by out-of-state brewers unconstitutionally violate the dormant commerce clause. Filed last summer by a trio of small Washington brewers and an OR consumer, the suit is the first major attempt to topple a state prohibition against direct shipping of beer in the same way that many similar laws regarding wine went by the wayside, following Granholm Supreme Ct decision in 2005. Recall, plaintiffs here are represented by same attys who have long supported wine shippers (including successfully on behalf of suppliers in Granholm, but unsuccessfully recently on behalf of retailers).
Coca-Cola bottler FEMSA "will bet its growth" on expansion of its OXXO c-store chain in Mexico and the US, reported Nation World News. That includes goal to open "around 900" US stores in the next 10 yrs, according to separate Mexico Daily Post article from 2021. Tho co's planning more aggressive expansion in Mexico, as gen dir Daniel Rodriquez Cofre sees oppy to open 800-1000 stores per yr there, according to Nation World News. "Most notably, FEMSA left the door open to explore the North American market because its shareholding position in Heineken prevented it from doing so," noted Valentin Mendoza, assoc dir of stock mkt research at Actinvar. Recall divesting its ~15% stake in Heineken is worth roughly $8 bil to FEMSA. (see Feb 16 issue.) Rodriquez Cofre believes its retail division could contribute more than two-thirds of FEMSA revs and profits.
Molson Coors' 2022 results "aren't an aberration or a moment in time," ceo Gavin Hattersley insisted on Q4/full year 2022 earnings call today. After pledging to grow both top and bottom line as part of its revitalization plan, co's "done exactly that" (see last issue). MC "stuck to plans and delivered despite many people who didn't think we could," he declared. "Consistent" top and bottom-line growth "is our north star," and while 2023 guidance bakes in more conservative estimates of lower-single-digit growth on top and bottom line, medium-term outlook anticipates faster growth for a variety of reasons, both Gavin and cfo Tracey Joubert stated.
One of the biggest remaining shoes to drop in Constellation's ongoing CA distribution consolidation efforts came late today. Markstein Bev Co agreed to sell Constellation brand rights to Reyes Beer Division. That's another ~6 mil cases moving to Reyes, INSIGHTS understands. Sierra Nevada also moving to Reyes from Markstein Bev, totaling ~1 mil cases as Sierra continues to follow suit in similar consolidation efforts across its home state.
In effort to boost presence in channels like c-stores, Reed's Inc for first time is considering offering canned versions of its natural sodas, even as it plans to slash two-thirds of its sku count as it rationalizes portfolio to focus on most profitable items. In response to sagging sales and widened losses, "the simple answer is that we need to restore profitability, increase share, simplify our portfolio and introduce our new line of low-calorie, all-natural sodas both on time and on budget this fall," said interim ceo Stefan Freeman, elevated from operations role, on conference call last night. He said co's new chmn, John Bello, "has said everything must be above a 30% margin and that's what we're driving towards."

