Beer Marketer's Insights
Hard cider category has been in tuff decline for several years runnin', data from TTB, Beer Institute and US Dept of Commerce shows. That's despite multiple regional cos posting consistent strong growth in their respective mkts, as segment continues to be dragged by Angry Orchard declines and fallout of other top natl cider brands. Tho it's not all roses for regionals either, including declines for Artisanal Brewing Venture's Bold Rock and Vintage Wine Estates' Ace Cider in scans last yr.
Starting next week, Yuengling will begin selling in new mkts this mo. It's set to launch St Lou on Monday, then add rest of Missouri and surrounding states OK & KS to its footprint later in Feb. Yuengling will initially be available on-premise only before packaged product hits shelves in Mar, per local news. Recall, new state expansions are continuation of co's joint venture with Molson Coors. And Yuengling is going with mostly MC distrib network, with exceptions of Breakthru Bev in St Louis and Central States Dist in Kansas City, MO and Kansas City, KS (see Oct 12 issue).
There's no more exclusivity in alc bev Super Bowl ads and seems to be less exclusivity in celeb brand endorsements too these days. Two of AB's top celeb stars featured in Super Bowl ads this year also recently partnered with other alc bev brands in different ways.
Supermarket chain Stop & Shop has new flyer out today (2/3-2/9) with one of more striking mail-in rebates we've seen. Buy a suitcase of Bud Light for $25 and send mail-in-rebate and get $25 back. "FREE! With Mail-in-Rebate," sez the ad. Even if redemption rates remain very low, that is some promotion. Most of the other MIRs in this week's flyer are more normal. Truly tops the rest with a $10 MIR that gets you a 12-pack for $7.99. And Guinness has a $9.00 MIR that also brings 12-pack price down to $7.99. Only Corona and Modelo are advertised without MIR.
Can-making giant Ball reported signs of accelerating promo activity among its North American bev customers after soft demand in final weeks of 2022, which prexy/ceo Dan Fisher said "has changed behavior patterns initially this year." There's "more promo activity in Q1, in recognition of what happened in the last 4-6 weeks of the year," he stated on conference call. He attributed much of promo burst to beer because of its "precipitous" volume drop late in yr. Promos even beyond what might be anticipated as Super Bowl-stoking activity, but "we're seeing it across every single category because everyone was down the last 6 weeks of the year." In 2023, he's seeing a "nice uplift in beer out of the gate," but some of that could be Super-Bowl related. (A version of this article appeared yesterday in Beverage Business INSIGHTS.)
NA Bev Suppliers Shook Up FMBs in 2022: Simply Spiked, Hard Dew #2 & #3 Share Gainers in Segment
Twisted Tea's still the star of the show, but new cast of characters shook up the FMB scene in 2022, with more set to audition this year. Twisted grew 32% last yr adding by far most $$ in the segment, +$212 mil to $873 mil, per Nielsen all outlet data from Bump Williams Consulting. It's on track to become a billion-dollar brand and nearly 1/4 of all FMB dollars after adding 3 share to ~23 of segment in 2022.
Sign up now for the 2023 Beer Insights Spring Conference! This year's event will be held May 17-18 at the Four Seasons, Chicago, including an evening welcome reception on May 17 and a full day of programming May 18. So far, our program will include: Mark Anthony Brands new chief commercial officer David Barnett, IRI Worldwide exec veep Scott Scanlon, Stone Brewing ceo Maria Stipp, Allagash Brewing director of sales Naomi Neville. You'll also hear an up-to-the minute presentation chock full of data and analysis from Beer Marketer's INSIGHTS prexy Benj Steinman. Several more speakers will be joining the program. Join us for a jam-packed day of insightful presentations, candid conversations and plenty of networking opportunities. Sign up now for the early bird discount!
An "M&A splurge" that began in 2004 with the creation of InBev "compromised" both major brewers' "organic performance and the evolution of the beer category," analysts at RBC wrote in imaginative recent report. Using game theory, they play out a possible "inflection point" in global bev biz where big brewers begin to invest more in their core biz and get back their "financial and share price mojo" as a result. That's opposite of last decade-plus when major distillers "upped revenue investment and the brewers have rolled over," these analysts wrote.
While supplier M&A quieter than usual in 2022, distrib deals went down at an above avg pace. INSIGHTS tracked 11 in AB system and 14 in MC's, totaling over 100 mil cases trading hands. That's well above 18 deals we tracked in 2021 (13 AB, 5 MC) despite soft industry, increased costs and higher interest rates. And several sold for very high EBITDA multiples, well into the teens.
AB "aggressively" put its best foot forward at its SAMCOM convention for distribs, after a challenging year. And distribs seemingly embraced the evolution of AB's 10 yr plan (now in "second half"), including big 60% hike in spending on its 10 megabrands and more emphasis on its big mainstream brands, like Bud Light and Bud. SAMCOM featured lotsa new brand plans and programs, many new celeb partnerships, beyond beer innovations and more.