Beer Marketer's Insights
Unprecedented US beer biz decline in 2022. First time US beer fell more than 3% in 53 yrs of INSIGHTS coverage. Dropped about 7.5 mil bbls, 3.5% in 2022, including imports, we now estimate following historically tuff shipments drop in Dec estimated by Beer Inst (see below). In last 30 yrs, US beer almost always in a range of +1 to -1. Only 3 times in last 30 yrs did biz fall outside that range. So what happened in 2022? And what does it mean going forward? Are we in a new era?
A few top beer brands reached new milestones in 2022 as rankings continue to shift. Mich Ultra grew low-double-digits, surging to 14.2 mil bbls, INSIGHTS estimates. That puts Ultra ahead of Coors Light for first time ever, by 1 mil bbls, we figure. On-prem a bigger factor in Ultra's growth last year. It's the new #2 brand by volume and countin' on becoming #1 down the road. Similarly, Modelo Especial shipments nearly reached 13 mil bbls, INSIGHTS estimates. Surpassed Miller Lite for first time ever to become #4 brand by volume in US.
Gaming-oriented G Fuel energy brand has cracked Vitamin Shoppe nutrition chain with quartet of 16-oz cans and 5 flavors in its 40-serving tubs, all based on trending gaming and anime properties. Among them is exclusive flavor called Soda Ice Candy that's inspired by Naruto Shippuden animated series. Among canned entries, also entering chain will be Kamehameha (Strawberry Lychee, inspired by Dragon Ball Z) and Power Pellet (Cherry Lollipop, inspired by Pac-Man), both with 140 mg of caffeine, and Snow Cone, with 300 mg . . . In what seems like the most natural pairing, Icelandic Glacial has won designation as official in-flight water partner with Iceland's national carrier, Icelandair. Starting right away, Icelandair will carry Icelandic Glacial on all flights spanning 50 cities in Europe and North America . . . Swoon sugar-free canned lemonade has entered NY DSD house Big Geyser, which is picking up NY-based brand's Classic Lemonade, Pink Lemonade, Ginger Lemonade, Half + Half, Sweet Tea
Powerade Reloads for Aggressive 2023 Push
As anticipated since NACS show in Oct, Coca-Cola has unveiled restaged Powerade, which is doubling its electrolyte content from its former levels - and those of Gatorade - while adding vitamins C and B12. The move advances portfolio play by which KO is seeding its acquired Body Armor brand as premium offering for its most discerning shoppers and Powerade as a more affordable fighter brand, albeit with greater hydration cred thanks to revamped recipe. Now Coke brass is ready to get in Pepsi's face via aggressive marketing push, including Final Four activation. "We're gonna be loud about it. We're gonna be proud of it," Body Armor ceo Federico Muyshondt told CNN this week. "Powerade is a sleeping giant. It's time to put a lot of energy into it."
Can-making giant Ball is reporting signs of accelerating promo activity among its North American bev customers after soft demand in final weeks of 2022, which prexy/ceo Dan Fisher said "has changed behavior patterns initially this year." There's "more promo activity in Q1, in recognition of what happened in the last 4-6 weeks of the year," he reported. He attributed much of promo burst to beer because of its "precipitous" volume drop, even beyond what might be anticipated as Super Bowl-stoking activity, but "we're seeing it across every single category because everyone was down the last 6 weeks of the year." (Observation made across all retail channels is not inconsistent with comments made in impulse-oriented c-store channel above.)
C-store operators surveyed for Goldman Sachs' "Beverage Bytes" survey pegged energy drink category sales growth at 17% in Q4. Pretty impressive going against +15% in Q4 2021. For full yr 2022, energy sales up 11% in c-stores and retailers anticipate growth of 14% in 2023. (Recall survey covers 30K locations, ~20% of all c-stores in US, tho analyst Bonnie Herzog is discreet about whom she's hearing from. But it's a trove of direct insight from retailers who rarely talk to the public or the press.)
Throwback Thursday
This week in 1984, INSIGHTS reported on a surprising termination of a popular AB distrib in Calif that led to AB owning branch in Stockton. Hans Frey immigrated as a kid from Germany after World War II, coming to St Louis with his parents who were fortunately friends of man who happened to be cousin of Busch family. Frans got a job with AB where his "zesty, joking, convivial personality and his strong abilities," made him many friends at co, wrote INSIGHTS. He served as a district mgr before running a small branch for AB. AB was so impressed it offered Hans opportunity to take over Stockton operation. He built it from 160K cases to ~2 mil. So caught lots of folks by surprise when it was announced AB was buying operation back and that Hans had been terminated for equity contract violations. While there were a string of AB terminations in 80s and 90s, virtually none since high profile Maris trial over 20 years ago.
Bud Light's return to the Super Bowl features Hollywood couple Miles and Keleigh Teller (and their French bulldog Bugsy) in spot that "signals a new era for the Bud Light brand," co announced this morn. In the 60-second ad, while Keleigh is put on hold for an estimated "less than 96 minutes," Miles picks up two Bud Lights from the fridge and starts dancing to the call-waiting music, and suddenly both (and Bugsy) are dancing around and making the most out of the frustrating situation. Ad concludes with the "Easy to Drink, Easy to Enjoy" tagline. This, and "The Bud Light Carry" spot that began airing last month, are early instances of Bud Light's 5X media investment this year, in an effort to "reach fans 21+ in new ways, with a brighter look, a new sense of confidence, and a magnetic tone that helps fans see choosing to enjoy life is…easy," per release.
Washington law "does not prohibit without cause terminations either explicitly or implicitly," Constellation argues in opening salvo to 9th Circuit court of appeals, seeking to overturn district court judge's decisions to block proposed termination of Olympic Eagle. Not only did that judge repeatedly misread state law, in Constellation's view, so did prior judge in past Pabst case that eventually settled out of court. So in appeal to 9th Circuit, Constellation also seeks more than mere removal of current roadblock to transfer brand rights to Columbia Dist. In asking for a ruling that aligns with its reading of state law, Constellation also seeks a new precedent that clears up apparent ambiguity and can be depended on in the future.
Multiple calls in last 24 hours indicate that pressure to discount in beer biz has started already, "and it isn't even Super Bowl" as 1 source said. AB has already come to a number of wholesalers saying that it wants to discount back some of its Oct price hike (with 70/30 split), tho in some cases not until Apr. And AB's already out at retail with lower keg prices in Southern CA. Bud Light half bbl discounted by $14.75, Elysian Space Dust by $19.50, Mich Ultra by $7 and Shock Top by $16. These discounts will reportedly be ongoing. Meanwhile, Boston Beer's Truly will have $4.00 Instant Redeemable Coupon for Feb-Mar in WI at least.

