Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Tho several analysts skeptical of Molson Coors' full-yr guidance (see Nov 2 issue), Wedbush's Gerald Pascarelli sees a favorable setup for fourth qtr/year-end results. Over past 3 mos, MC's scanner trends "very encouraging," with accelerated Q4 price mix causing "minimal" volume degradation, he wrote. So Gerald's optimistic on co's topline guidance (mid-single digit revenue increase) and its "ability to approach the low end" of expected high-single-digit increase in profit before taxes.

For first time since Sovos ShipCompliant started tracking it, the US direct-to-consumer wine market declined in 2022. Total volume dropped 10.3%, by almost 877K cases to about 7.6 mil cases, SSC estimates in annual report prepared alongside Wines Vines Analytics. That's back below 2020 volume, when DTC wine shipments jumped 27%, recall. But it's still almost 1 mil cases, 15% ahead of 2019. That suggests a reset after the unique circumstances created by the Covid-19 pandemic. Indeed, if DTC wine shipments maintained 2019's 5% gain for each of the next 3 yrs, 2022 volume would have been about the same. (This article appeared in sibling pub Craft Brew News earlier today.)

Total alc bev $$ continued to grow thru first 2 wks of 2023 IRI scans, tho volume still in the red. Dollar sales across beer, wine & spirits were up 3% in 1 wk ended Jan 15 vs both yr ago and prior wk (following +10% growth in previous wk driven by favorable comps). Beer $$ up 5%, volume -2.5% in latest wk. "Dry Jan" participation not yet making a dent in overall scans, but NA beer $$ up 28% vs yr ago. STZ still leading supplier growth, $$ up 18% with Modelo +22% in wk to Jan 15. Yet Mark Anthony sales also starting strong: up 10% in latest wk, including Mike's Hard Lemonade +17% and White Claw +7%.

Decades-long decline in teen drinking hasn't hit bottom yet, even after 70-80% declines in some measures over last 20 yrs. Further, some sizable drops seen during the pandemic were sustained, especially among young teens, 2022 results of Monitoring the Future (MTF) surveys show. Cannabis use among teens also declined in recent yrs, but increased adult use more than makes up for it, according to the 2021 Natl Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). (This wk, sibling pub Alcohol Issues INSIGHTS dove deep into both MTF and NSDUH results.)

Join us Wed, Feb 1 at 1PM Eastern for the 2022 Year in Beer webinar to get an in-depth look at the news and numbers that moved the needle in the US beer biz. In just over 1 wk, Beer Marketer's INSIGHTS editors will unpack the year that was and gear up for what's to come. Register today for this 90-minute review (including Q&A) of essential beer biz stats and facts. Or watch the presentation on-demand: a recording of the presentation and a copy of the deck will be available to all registrants.

With layoffs happening everywhere you look in tech, could they be coming to craft in a bigger way too? NC's Bhramari Brewing unexpectedly laid off staff and closed its kitchen earlier this mo, opting to keep its Asheville taproom open but close its Charlotte taproom for a month, Citizen Times reported and owner/chef Josh Dillard confirmed. Co's Charlotte outpost opened just last Aug. The kitchen at the Asheville taproom shared space with a ghost kitchen concept that debuted in the fall.

For first time since Sovos ShipCompliant started tracking it, the US direct-to-consumer wine market declined in 2022. Total volume dropped 10.3%, by almost 877K cases to about 7.6 mil cases, SSC estimates in annual report prepared alongside Wines Vines Analytics. That's back below 2020 volume, when DTC wine shipments jumped 27%, recall. But it's still almost 1 mil cases, 15% ahead of 2019. That suggests a reset after the unique circumstances created by the Covid-19 pandemic. Indeed, if DTC wine shipments maintained 2019's 5% gain for each of the next 3 yrs, 2022 volume would have been about the same.

Sierra Nevada is hiring from within for its new mktg VP. Co formally announced Lesley Albright's promotion to the position, previously the brewer's director of digital & media since 2020. She'll lead Sierra's marketing and communications strategy, and has already been serving in role since Sep 2022, according to LinkedIn. Before joining Sierra, she most recently served as sr veep of integrated communications mktg at Edelman, where she drove 20% revenue growth and 40% profit margin growth for co's San Francisco-based client portfolio (including Lagunitas and Campari), per release.

To tout its tongue-in-cheek sponsorship of 1st "electric football world championship," Dogfish Head will drop a 30-second spot into Super Bowl ad lineup, but only in its home mkt. Co spending $7K to air the ad in Delmarva region (parts of Delaware, Maryland and Virginia), or the 137th largest of the 210 ad markets the co could choose from, it shared. Spot stars none other than DFH founder Sam Calagione taking the not-so-serious game seriously. Recall, use of Tudor Games' electric football game not coincidental as it provided assist to Sam's "continuous hopping" method that lends name to flagships 60 Minute and 90 Minute IPAs (plus special release 120 Minute). End of ad highlights large 19.2 oz cans of the 60 and 90 Minute, a growing pack size for DFH and across craft.

Even with Bell's tuff decline amid its transition to new ownership and operations, New Belgium's impressive double-digit growth drove parent co Kirin-Lion's craft portfolio to new heights in 2022. New Belgium shipments jumped nearly 15%, gaining 157K bbls to 1.226 mil bbls total in 2022 (including some Fruit Smash hard seltzer growth), co shared with CBN. That's the #1 gain among craft brewers and 2d largest barrel-gain in beer behind only Constellation last yr. Notably, New Belgium surpassed Sierra for the first time ever. It finished the year over 160K bbls ahead of Sierra, and is closing in on Sam Adams family all-channel, CBN figures. So Bell's near 8%, 37K-bbl decline to 447K bbls in 2022 looks more like a small blip with the combined portfolios.