Beer Marketer's Insights
As Japanese brewers increase focus on North America, beer sales in Japan grew for the first time in 18 yrs. Beer and "quasi-beer" sales in Japan grew 2-3% in 2022, Japan Times reported, citing estimated data from 4 of the country's biggest brewers. That doesn't change Japan's grim demographic outlook, with beer sales still down ~10% vs 2019 and "expected to shrink around 3%" in 2023. But last yr Sapporo volumes grew 3% and Suntory Beer volumes were up 5%, while Asahi led the way with a 10% increase in $$ sales (tho it didn't disclose volume).
While 9 of top-15 vendors grew $$ in 2022 Nielsen data, just 5 of 'em grew volume according to BWC update. STZ volume +8%, Diageo +0.5%, New Belgium Brewing +12.8%, Geloso +12% and Phusion +3.5%. Indeed, NBB was 2d biggest volume gainer behind STZ, growing by over 1.2 mil cases in these channels. Tho it was 3d biggest $$ gainer at +21%, behind STZ and MC. Three FMB-led cos were the other main gainers by volume as Smirnoff Ice family made up for softer Guinness and Smirnoff hard seltzer biz, and both Geloso and Phusion quietly posted strong growth.
Constellation beer $$ officially surpassed Molson Coors in 2022 tracked off-prem channels, according to Nielsen data shared by Bump Williams Consulting. This was the case for much of the year, tho MC $$ jumped back ahead of STZ in Q4 amid MC's higher % price increases and slower STZ growth. But for full yr, Constellation beer $$ grew 12.5% to $8.115 mil vs Molson Coors up 2% to $8.06 mil in Nielsen xAOC + Liquor Plus Convenience channels. That's as MC still sold 130 mil cases more than STZ at 357.9 mil cases total. Both cos still less than half the size of AB $$ in scans, $16.6 bil. (In IRI, Molson Coors still ahead of STZ.)
First Distrib Deal of 2023; Hensley Will Buy Premier in NM; Approaching 38 Mil Cases When It Closes
First deal of 2023 one of several INSIGHTS heard about late last yr, but it was just announced to employees last week. Hensley of AZ will buy Premier of NM. That's about 7.5 mil cases of almost all AB products. Deal expected to close late in first qtr, pending supplier approval. When deal closes, Hensley will reportedly approach 38 mil cases, including NAs. Over ¾ of its biz is AB, but it has hefty NA portfolio. This deal would likely make Hensley one of top 5 AB distribs.
Sazerac Seeks $38.6 Mil from RNDC for Delivered Product, Claims Poor Performance in Fed Suit
After terminating its spirits wholesaler in around 30 states on Dec 30, Sazerac sez that distrib, RNDC, hasn't paid the $38.6 mil in past-due invoices for product the distiller already supplied, expecting the amount to balloon by another $48 mil by end of Jan. So co claims in fed lawsuit filed late last wk (first reported earlier today by BBD). Tho Sazerac initially provided little reasoning for the termination, complaint offers plenty more color, including prior contract dispute, claims of "poor" performance and allegations of current bad behavior.
After an uptick in closings at the turn of the new year, openings seemed to quickly even things out. In Anaheim, newcomer Villains Brewing will take over the former Modern Times "Leisuretown" location, a sprawling space complete with a pool. Led by Brad Kominek, who's brewed for CA's Green Cheek Beer Co and Noble Ale Works, and Isaias Hernandez, founder of indie BBQ chain Smoke and Fire restaurants, the partners are renovating the space and expect "things to start unfolding near the end of April 2023," The Full Pint reports. The pool will stay "per lease requirements," but top floor of location's 2-story house will be transformed into a hi-end steak restaurant called The Craftsman. Villains Brewing will operate out of the main area, along with a "brand new pizza concept."
Top growth cos in 2022 craftland scans varied pretty widely in size and shape, tho several familiar names reached top of the charts, according to Nielsen xAOC + liquor plus convenience data shared in BWC report. Collectively these 10 cos grew 25%, $125 mil to over $692 mil. Up 2.5 share of segment to 10.9 total. That more than made up for top-10 decliners collectively down 7%, $110 mil to $1.4 bil total, shedding 0.9 share of craft to just under 1/4 of segment $$. Several of the steepest $$ drops came from top craft families. But all other craft brand fams outside of these top-10 growers and decliners collectively dropped 6%, near $250 mil and shed 1.65 share to 64 total. Total craft $$ slipped 4% and lost 0.8 share of total beer $$.
Cans Up to 65 Share of Craft But Slowin'; 19.2 Bright Spot; 17 of Top-25 Up Double-Digits or Better
Craft cans finished 2022 up 3.6% to $3.75 bil while bottles slipped 15% to $2 bil in Nielsen xAOC + liquor plus convenience data. So cans snagged another 4.7 share of craft segment $$ to 65.1 total. Yet even craft cans showed some signs of slowdown. Largest package type, canned 6pks, dipped 3% for the year, tho still gained slight share to over 26 of total craft $$. Similarly, canned 4pks slipped 2.5% and canned 15pks down 3%, tho gained slight share to 8.1 and 4.1 respectively. Canned 16oz single-serves down 8%, shedding 0.1 pts to 1.6 share.
2022 marked the first full year of sizable decline in total number of craft brands and SKUs tracked at chain retail in many, many years, according to Bump Williams Consulting report citing Nielsen xAOC + liquor plus convenience data. There were still a whopping 18,136 craft brands and 23,062 SKUs tracked in total. But that's down from 18,442 brands and 23,701 SKUs year ago. So 306 fewer craft brands and 639 fewer craft SKUs were tracked in 2022 Nielsen data vs 2021; down 2% and -3% respectively. Yet more key styles and packs still growing in retailer sets, BWC highlighted. There were 100 more IPAs tracked and 500 more can SKUs in 2022 vs year ago; 400 fewer brands in other styles and 1100 fewer bottled packs. Number of brands and SKUs were still up 7% and 5% respectively vs calendar year 2020, according to BWC. Still a lotta long tail.
Sierra Nevada shipped about 14.6 mil cases in 2022 (1.06 mil bbls), down 3.5%, Chief Commercial Officer Joe Whitney told CBN in wide-ranging conversation. That dip steepened in soft Dec when Sierra down 10%, with 2 fewer selling days. But for most of yr, Sierra only down a skosh. It was also down 1.4% in 2021. For 5 yrs, Sierra stayed between 1-1.1 mil bbls. That's better than a lot of larger craft brewers, but it's still not growth. Yet Sierra aims to grow in 2023, expecting to be up 4%, notes Joe. And Sierra still expects to double revs in 5 yrs, in part from its new Can Do facility, which will produce other suppliers' innovative products.

