Talk about grand ambitions! This week in 1980, Philip Morris chmn George Weissman told Barron's that he expected beer revenues to continue to grow by 20% annually. Barron's wrote that "Weissman has set his sights on eventually claiming No 1 spot in the beer business." That didn't happen. He also told mag, "we are in the beer business for profit, not primarily for volume."

Key question facing investors in US alc bev space requires weighing "a known quantity" against "an unknown," Bernstein analyst Nadine Sarwat wrote yesterday. The known? "Input cost pressures" to extent that lead players in US beer, AB and MC likely to once again need to take more than their usual 1-2% pricing in order to maintain their gross margins," in Nadine's view. Size of those increases will depend on how much ABI is willing to take as well as how much consumers can take. And that leads to the unknown: "how long can the consumer remain resilient?" No clear answers there, but internal Bernstein analysis suggests beer can outperform in a recession and that modest downtrading may only be temporary/short-lived, Nadine notes.

Final numbers are in for RTDs in 2022 in NielsenIQ, and they're still flying, collectively up $454 mil, 58.5% to $1.23 bil (data from Bump Williams Consulting.) That's a little less than 6 share of total spirits at $21.5 bil in this data. Incremental $$ "on par with FMBs," said BWC's Dave Williams and "a premiere growth engine." Lead brand High Noon a "freight train" responsible for much of growth. Up $182.6 mil, 78.5% to $415 mil. So High Noon climbed to over 1/3 of total spirts-based RTDs. Strong as brand is, High Noon still just a small piece of near $5 bil in sales of combined malt-based and spirits seltzers. But it's gaining lotsa share and almost 2x as big as Topo Chico, up $130 mil, 155% to $213.6 mil.

Another analyst downgraded ABI, as Nik Oliver and team at UBS cut stock to "sell" due to continued P&L pressures. Tho "encouraged by signs of improving execution" in ABI's key profit pools, UBS believes the mkt "may not fully appreciate risks for 2023." Those range from EBITDA shortcomings, sharp currency depreciation in LatAm, and inability of China reopening (~10% of ABI sales) to offset US "weakness" (~30%). But FX risks in LatAm may be "key source of downside," with UBS preferring stock of Brazilian co part-owned by ABI, AmBev ("buy"), since it reports in local currency.

Mark Anthony chief commercial officer David Barnett wrote distribs that co appointed Anthony Labrusciano as sr veep of sales, effective Jan 23, reporting to David. Anthony spent last 4 yrs at Heineken USA, where he was Eastern Region sales veep, "leading a 40M case, $800M revenue business across 18 states from Maine to Florida to Ohio." Before HUSA, Anthony spent 9 yrs at Diageo "with increasing responsibilities in Finance, Distributor Management, and Sales Leadership in both Spirits and Beer," wrote David. He knew Anthony at Diageo. David joined Mark Anthony in Oct. Former sr sales veep Steve Ballard reportedly moved on awhile back after 5 yrs with co. Heineken USA has already named Brett Anderson to replace Anthony.

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BeatBox "more than doubled" to ~2 mil cases shipped in 2022, finishing the year just over $40 mil in revs, co-founders Justin Fenchel, Aimy Steadman and Brad Schultz detailed at Beer Business Daily Summit. The tetra pak wine startup expects to sell "equivalent of over" 100K bbls in 2023. And "we want to be over $300 million in revenue in the next 3-4 years," said Justin. That's a lofty (7.5x) goal. But the brand's come a long way since it switched to beer distrib network 4 yrs ago. Back then, it was a $2 mil biz with 2 beer wholesalers and 10 employees. Now it's up to 250 distribs across "almost every state" with nearly 100 full-time employees, following $15 mil round of funding last fall with a $200 mil "post money" valuation.

Longtime leader of brewing and operations at Bell's and one of most decorated and respected American brewers, John Mallett will leave the co in late Feb after 21 yrs, Bell's announced today. He celebrated his 20th anniversary at Bell's just as it began integrating with Kirin-Lion-owned New Belgium, following completion of that acquisition. Now, a year later, Bell's shared his resignation from role as brewing and quality veep of the combined cos, a "recent development," spokesperson clarified. After his departure, John plans "to enjoy well-deserved time with family and pursue his many other interests," the co shared. "For now, there are no plans to fill his position."

While Olympic Eagle got preliminary injunction (STZ appealed) to stop movement of its Constellation Brands biz, 2 other WA AB distribs worked out a deal. Sold about 300K cases to STZ, which then sold to The Odom Corp in Q4. In turn, King and Tripp got rights to leading local craft, No-Li. In unusual move, No-Li also went with AB branch in Seattle. Sales surged in late 2022, co sez (as we wrote in sibling pub Craft Brew News). Meanwhile, Odom getting much bigger in last couple of yrs. It's in process of merging with Craig Stein Bev, expected to close soon (tho several brands, including Mark Anthony, Deschutes and Sierra moved to Columbia in process). It also acquired Constellation rights in Alaska and AB branch in Hawaii in late 2021. And Odom got Mark Anthony in HI, prior to Paradise Bevs striking a deal to sell to Reyes Beer Division. That's also expected to close soon.