From this yr's sales of Stone Brewing and Modern Times along with Lost Abbey scaling back, to previous Ballast Point brouhaha, Saint Archer shutdown and Green Flash bankruptcy, San Diego's beer scene has been through a lot. Even back in June, CBN noted that many top players in the "craft mecca" morphed into bankruptcies, forced sales and more. After some of San Diego's biggest brewers over-estimated their ability to expand, today almost all of the city's new breweries have hyper-local biz models, according to SD Union Trib (subscription).

As Athletic Brewing gears up for another sizable natl media campaign to support Dry Jan efforts, co has eyes set on "passing the biggest of the big brands" in non-alc beer, co-founder/CEO Bill Shufelt shared on CNBC this wk in 5-min spotlight segment dubbed "Buzz Without the Booze." Athletic is "on track to become the number one player overall" in NA beer, according to Bill. In scans, Athletic holds 55 share of craft NA beer, and last CBN saw, holds low-teens share of total NA beer, still far smaller than lead brand Heineken 0.0 in tracked off-prem channels YTD. Tho it's on a far more rapid growth trajectory, gaining ground in more recent periods. And its more established e-comm platform further narrows the gap.

Athletic Still Doubling in Scans; "Significant Category Share Gainer" in 2023 Indeed, Athletic more than doubled sales in tracked off-prem channels this yr, including volume +123% to 462K cases YTD thru 11/27 in natl IRI foodstores. For latest 4 wks, its volume grew 110%, surpassing AB's O'Doul's, and $$ (+120.5%) neck and neck with Bud Zero. Athletic shipped around 100K bbls in 2021, recall, while Heineken 0.0 shipped ~240K. But that brand's growth slowed to low-single-digits this year in scans. So Athletic already within striking distance.

Indeed, Athletic "expect[s] to be a significant category share gainer in the year ahead given we've launched over 15 new states in the last 2 months...and we're launching a number of significant new retail chain partners at scale this year now that we finally have the capacity and distribution to support them," Bill shared with CBN separately. "We currently have no regions below 50% growth YoY, even those that we've been in for over 3 years, so organic growth is strong too."

From National TV Buy to Barstool Sports Podcast, Athletic Brewing Will Urge Drinkers to 'Give Dry a Try' in Jan Athletic shed more light on its intensified Dry January activation this year with our sibling pub Beverage Business INSIGHTS, describing range of activities from national TV ad to Barstool Sports tie-in that should get its NA beers in front of as many as 45 mil Americans. "Give dry a try" is campaign theme. The 360-degree array of programming includes TV and out-of-home and newer media like podcasts, Bill and chief communications officer Chris Furnari detailed.

Athletic tweaked ad that broke last fall in which celebs display range of occasions that make an NA beer "fit for all times," per tagline, adding winter activities and broadening array of depicted endorsers engaged in "relatable situations," as Shufelt put it. On top of David Chang and JJ Watt, ads will include skiers Malou Peterson and Mark Abha and surfer Malia Manuel. TV buy includes both national and targeted regional spots, including NFL playoffs and Cotton Bowl, where USC quarterback and Athletic endorser Caleb Williams will take the field, as well as College Football Championships, with Ohio State QB CJ Stroud calling the plays. (Recall, Athletic was early brewer to take advantage of easing of NCAA restrictions on paid endorsements by college athletes - BBI, Sep 1.) Token CEO podcast on Barstool Sports is featuring explicit take on biz from Erika Nardini (the actual CEO of Barstool) that reached 3.6 mil listeners in past month. And in-market, expect tons of sampling at colleges, ski resorts and arenas where hoops teams like Trail Blazers and USC play, as Athletic starts out on handing out 1 mil cans in new year. Partnership with Whoop fitness monitor disclosed last week will generate dataset from 1,000 or more users that can be used to assess effect of alcohol on sleep and recovery.

The 13-wk period surrounding Dry Jan last year enjoyed 20-30% pop and co anticipates similar burst of interest this year. Integrated production capability at 3 breweries means co should be able to avoid out-of-stocks even if demand surprises on upside, Bill said, pointing to differentiator vs other indie players.

"The Moment We've Been Waiting For"; NA Beer "Reframing How Modern Adults Think" For a segment that's just a little more than a half a share point of the overall $$, CBN/INSIGHTS is often amazed at the amount of attention that it's hottest player, Athletic Brewing, garners time and again. Five-minute segment on CNBC is quite a spotlight, including with one of top talking heads, Aaron Ross Sorkin, noting that Athletic has a "lot of fan boys and fan girls" at the network. "This is the moment we've been waiting for in the category," Bill told CNBC, where what used to be "a total afterthought and penalty box beverage" has become "exciting, aspirational," and "kind of reframing how modern adults think." Athletic has invested $175 mil in its facilities, reminded Bill, to become a "totally differentiated producer" of NA bevs.

What does a robust holiday-season drink menu look like in cannabis world? Sorse Technology vet Diana Eberlein, who last month moved to chair/prexy of Cannabis Beverage Assn, has pointed us to THC-Beverage Taproom at Trail Magic producer that earlier this month served up its own brand and 30+ guest offerings from across the state at taproom it shares with Minneapolis Cider Co (location offers "THC beverages, craft cider, cocktails, delicious food and even pickleball"). Its own offerings included a Hop Water with Mosaic hops and 3 mg THC dosage as well as Half & Half Classic Arnold Palmer (5 mg). Bauhaus brought Tetra Lemon Lime (5 mg THC, 15 mg CBD) while Surly Brewing brought Take Five Berry (5 mg THC) and BLNCD brought Orange Cardamom, Strawberry Basil and Yuzu Ginger bevs (all 5 mg THC but vowel-free in brand name). Several kombuchas in evidence, too. Menu seems to have been taken down from website by now but Diana posted it in her LinkedIn feed.

Drizly anticipates continued strong NA adult bev growth and for hard seltzers to continue losing share to "competitor" products on its platform in 2023, co shared as part of its 2023 predictions post. Once-torrid hard seltzer lost 0.7 share of Drizly alc bev sales to 3.1 total in 2022 while canned cocktails and other RTD spirits gained 0.7 share to 2.7 total. That's as Drizly tracked over 100 new RTD brands in its catalog YTD, up to 570 in 2022 vs 458 year ago. "I would not consider this a decrease in interest in the hard seltzer category, but rather, a slowing of growth," Drizly sr brand dir Liz Paquette said. (Hard seltzer declined steep double-digits thru-out 2022 in more established tracked off-prem channels, our sibling letter Insights Express notes. Hard seltzer remains largest beer segment on Drizly. But it's 5th-largest by $$ in IRI multi-outlet + convenience data behind domestic premium, import, subpremium and craft; 7th-largest segment for latest 4 wks thru Nov 27, behind flavored malt bevs (FMBs) and superpremium beers like Mich Ultra too.)

Congo Brands has been ridin' its influencer partnership model to some spectacular growth in past coupla years with Alani Nu energy brand (via fitness icon Katy Hearn) and then Prime Hydration sports drink (via social media influencer/MMA battler Logan Paul). So it was no surprise when Louisville, Ky-based co drew broad distributor and retailer interest with plan to shake up RTD tea category with brand called Down South (BBI, Aug 18) whose endorser was revealed at NACS c-store show to be country crooner Morgan Wallen (BBI, Oct 7). At NACS a coupla months ago, excitement surrounding launch seemed palpable.

At Consumer Edge Research, Brett Cooper has been closely tracking progress of Body Armor as it's navigated migration into Coke bottling system and, a year ago, full ownership at price of about $8 bil. Jury's still out, he wrote this week, but signs ain't great so far. "With the deal roughly a year past close, we think it too early to fully assess the outcome but Coke needs to substantially improve performance in 2023 to justify the transaction." His logic: Coke clearly is plying a high-low strategy in attacking Pepsi's Gatorade with premium-priced Body Armor and more value-oriented Powerade, much as it's marshalled Simply (high) and Minute Maid (low) to challenge Tropicana in juice biz. At a time of inflationary pressures Powerade has been taking price at about half the rate of Gatorade, widening the delta there. Body Armor? "Body Armor pricing was very late to the game but making up for lost time with YoY and 2-year price increases in the last 3 months up $3/unit case or more. In the face of these meaningful increases, Body Armor's volumes have begun to decline on a YoY basis with 3-year volume trends stabilizing at +20%." Past 8 wks have seen some volume improvements, tho.

This week in 2012, INSIGHTS reviewed what were the biggest stories and developments in the industry. Here were the top 10 Beer Biz stories a decade ago:

1. Volume rebound. After 3 straight down yrs - which hadn't happened since 1950s - many were hopin' to be even. But shipments finished up 1.7%, 3.57 mil bbls in 2012. And vast majority of suppliers grew.
2. Distrib consolidation picked up. We tracked over 100 mil cases in 34 deals and a few more may still come in before the close. Looks like nearly 20 deals in AB system alone, double recent pace.
3. Meritage bought Columbia Dist, biggest distrib deal ever, with price tag over $600 mil. Columbia sold over 34.1 mil cases of beer, 11.1 mil cases of non-alcs and 7.8 mil cases of wine/spirits (in shared services) at that time. Meritage also signaled major new entry of outside capital thru this "family office."
4. Chesbay-MillerCoors-Reyes. A battle royale broke out when MC tried to stymie Reyes expansion in Va and put itself in deal as partial buyer. Lawsuits and recriminations flew for a coupla mos. Reyes eventually bought Chesbay, lawsuits dropped but lotsa ill will/loss of trust in MC network. MC and Reyes also agreed on some operating standards and Reyes got clearance for future deals elsewhere.
5. Continued craft growth. Another double-digit volume gain, and new craft bizzes opening at 1 per day. Craft finished that year up 13.8%, 1.67 mil bbls.
6. Continued trade up. Not just craft, but imports, FMBs and superpremiums - led by success of Bud Light Platinum, Lime-A-Rita, Blue Moon, Shock Top, Leinenkugel's Shandy and more - expanded high end, boosted profits for many. At same time, cider biz exploded, tho still tiny.
7. ABI-Modelo-Constellation. Wasn't a done deal quite yet, still under review of Dept of Justice, but ABI was poised to pick up other half of Modelo, with Constellation buying other half of US rights and control of US biz thru Crown. Lotsa chatter at the time, including criticism from craft brewers and some policy observers.
8. AB more active in branches. From late 2011 thru end of 2012, AB added branches in Okla City, OK, Eugene, OR and Seattle, WA. Picked up well over 20 mil cases and northwest branches held on to craft brands. AB also managed to maintain 30% stake in City Bev in Chicago, but said it wouldn't expand that, tho 100% ownership had been original plan. AB did sell Miami biz to Major Brands.
9. Craft brewers feeling their oats, politically. BA had its own fed tax proposal that big brewers didn't like and wouldn't support. They also got more active in pursuing carve-outs from state franchise laws and more freedom to self-distribute. Some small brewers were also vocal in opposition to ABI-Modelo, claiming it could reduce craft distrib oppys. And at end of year, BA went very public to distinguish "craft" beers from the "crafty" entries from big brewers.
10. Dave Peacock left AB. Dave's departure in early 2012 completed trifecta of AB prexy, sales veep and mktg veep departing over same 12-mo period. Luiz Edmond, ABI's North American prexy, took over Dave's role and transformation from old AB was virtually complete.

Have a Happy New Year!!