Perils of reading too much into short-term trends. While "initial indications" were for "negligible volume impact" from Oct price increases, more recent data suggests "a higher elasticity," said Consumer Edge's Brett Cooper. "November volume trends deteriorated roughly 200 bps [basis points]," he added. But "picture remains opaque considering that beverage industry trends generally deteriorated in November and beer industry trend improved the week ending 12.11.22."

Several NA beer sales stats INSIGHTS cited from IRI data last issue were written based on our own analysis, including total NA beer near 1.5 share of $$ in foodstores YTD (and for latest 12 wks), and Athletic sales up 132% in those channels. Athletic Brewing co-founder Bill Shufelt cited separate Nielsen data during the Adult Non-Alc Beverage Assn round table chat, which shows an even stronger share picture for NA beer in recent periods, including: NA beer at 2 share of beer $$ in US Food for 13 wks, 8 share in Whole Foods nationally and 12 share in Whole Foods north Atlantic for 13 wks.

This week in 1999, INSIGHTS finally got a peek at AB's one year old Consolidation Guide that distribs couldn't share because of confidentiality agreement. In 66-page doc (that turned up in a wholesaler legal filing) AB laid out reasons distrib consolidation will accelerate, benefits of doing so and how AB could assist its distribs in structuring a deal. AB pointed out that its top 10 independent distribs sold just 8% of AB volume, compared to 92% of Coke and 82% of Pepsi. AB noted too that "margin and profit pressure will continue," while pointing to economic benefits of consolidation including: increased sales, better service to retailer, consistent mktg, better use of info and reduced operating costs. AB told distribs it "stands ready to assist you," from simple advice to actually buying distrib itself in tax-free exchange using AB stock, a "benefit that no other buyer could provide."

When ABI's Argentinian beer brand Quilmes released a commercial at the start of the World Cup centered around the country's chances of winning, it took a calculated gamble. But now Argentina is the world champ and ABI can take a victory lap, with the campaign "going viral" on social media, AdAge reports.

Constellation continues to fight for right to terminate Olympic Eagle without cause in court, even after WA judge awarded Olympic Eagle a preliminary injunction blocking Constellation from terminating/forcing consolidation (see Dec 13 issue). Constellation answered Olympic's original complaint via Dec 20 filing, addressing each section point by point and seeking to dismiss complaint "in its entirety, with prejudice." It also aims to enter judgment declaring it can terminate without cause, "remedy" for without cause terminations is "defined" by state law, preliminary injunction "should be dissolved" and Olympic Eagle "is not entitled to injunctive relief barring a termination without cause." Constellation wishes to "amend" its pleadings, "including to conform to the evidence at trial." WA Judge largely sided with Olympic Eagle's arguments in this case so far and unclear if amended STZ counters can sway court.

Athletic Brewing plans to launch its first fully natl media campaign for Dry Jan and beyond, marking "probably our biggest [marketing] investment ever," founder/ceo Bill Shufelt shared during Adult Non-Alc Beverage Assn "round table" discussion with other top suppliers across beer, wine & spirits. Co just filled out its 50-state footprint in Sep, making this "technically" its first natl media campaign, said Bill, tho Athletic did go big with natl media campaign during this past NCAA basketball tourney already. Goal is to try "to help people envision" non-alc products in "different parts of their life" more readily.

As Kirin's US craft portfolio expands via growth of New Belgium and acquisition of Bell's, Japan's 2nd-largest brewer is looking to acquire more production facilities in North America "to maintain strong growth in the region's craft beer market," Reuters reports. "Our craft beer business in North America is on a roll," ceo Yoshinori Isozaki told Reuters in an interview. But production and distribution remain "a challenge" across vast geography, so Kirin is "considering buying facilities from other craft brewers that are in the doldrums and have excess capacity," he added. Kirin-Lion sales grew 15% to $486 mil yr-to-date in IRI MULC scans thru Nov 27. New Belgium brand fam accounted for nearly 80% of that at $385.5 mil, up 23% vs yr ago.

Seltzers still sinking as winter starts. Volume down 19% and $$ down 10% for 4 weeks thru 12/10 in NielsenIQ data. Down 1.2 share of $$ to 7.2. That's likely lowest seen since before runup. But even as no end in sight to seltzer's big slump, lead brand White Claw becoming more dominant. Its $$ sales up 5% in latest 4 weeks and it got near 53 share of $$ in seltzer segment. Volume only down 3%, compared to total segment down 19%. Truly and Bud Light Seltzer volume still down by almost 1/3. Yikes! And they lost 0.6 and 0.2 share of segment $$, about 2/3 of segment's loss but just 30 share or so of sales. (Spirits-based seltzers not tracked in this data, but offsets less than half this decline.) One distrib INSIGHTS talked to today wondered if/when seltzer will stabilize. Answer: not yet.