Beer Marketer's Insights
Another Tuff Shipments Mo in Nov: Taxpaids Slipped 4%, per BI; Down 6.3 Mil Bbls Thru 11 Mos
Volume picture ain't lookin' any better in Nov. Domestic taxpaid shipments slipped 4% for the mo, Beer Inst estimates. So far, Q4 volume for US brewers down near 5% Oct-Nov. Tho they're facing particularly easy comps in Dec as shipments dropped 5.5% Dec 2021 vs 2020. Plus, $$ remain extra positive amid price increases in Q4, more than makin' up for volume losses as total beer CPI jumped 7.7% in Nov and +6% in Oct.
Not much a brewery can do without water. So the appearance of discolored water in Asheville, NC last week has many area breweries in holding patterns, waiting for improvement. A break in a water line near the city started turning some taps brown last week, while construction in the brewery-dense River Arts District caused more water problems in town on Monday, the Citizen Times reported. “The water disruption is impacting our business, within and beyond Asheville,” prexy of Highland Brewing Leah Wong Ashburn told the paper, explaining that the co can not only not brew beer, but that “this outage affects the city of Asheville as a brand.” Asheville established itself as a popular tourist destination for its breweries and especially outdoor sports and activities, including in surrounding rivers.
New Belgium also had to stop brewing, according to the paper, as has almost every brewery that’s part of the Asheville Brewers Alliance, interim director Mike Rangel said. Everybody’s also praising the city for its transparency and diligence, as well as its history of providing excellent quality water to breweries. But “these last few days have been a good reminder of how precious clean water is to all of us,” NBB’s Michael Craft shared in statement with the paper.
Kirin’s Australian-based subsidiary, Lion Brewing, continues to buy and build its craft position across the globe, specifically in UK. Lion acquired Magic Rock, based in Huddersfield (in between Manchester and Leeds), a craft co that opened in 2011 and grew to employ 45 folks, Magic Rock announced on its blog and FoodBev media reported among others. Recall, Lion also acquired London-based Fourpure Brewing in July 2018 and has Little Creatures and other craft brands in Australia and New Zealand. And Lion’s buyin’ outside of beer as well, recently acquiring Four Pillars Gin and Teza Iced Teas, plus Markham Vineyards and Textbook Wines via its US wine unit, FoodBev Media recapped. So following Lion subsidiary’s buying spree, Kirin Group has built a solid globally-spanning craft biz after all, including minority stake in Brooklyn Brewery for US (while Brooklyn’s building out its own US sales platform with multiple craft partners as well), two UK craft cos, handful of Australian crafts, New Zealand craft and Japan’s Yo-Ho Brewing.
Magic Rock listed all the usual reasons for lookin’ to deal, seeking ways to fund next expansion as it nears max capacity. Kirin/Lion viewed as “best way for us to establish a legacy for the brewery long term” and “introduce Magic Rock beers to a much wider audience,” Managing Director Richard Burhouse wrote. Deal “will allow us to expand capacity and become a genuine competitor in the UK beer landscape and further afield.” And “the alternative is to stand still in an increasingly competitive and congested market…to move forward and grow, I know we need help in some areas.” Richard and other shareholders are committed to sticking around for “at least the next four years” and he expects “long after that” as well. On top of expansion plans and better distribution, Magic Rock has “long term plans for additional retail sites” including another local taproom coming soon.
As some breweries find ways to navigate this new period of craft’s evolution, others close, at least for now. Consider two stories from Oregon that became public last month. First, owners of Cascade Lakes sold a majority of the co to local investors Andy Rhine and his father Bruce. The former has an engineering background and will take on director of brewing ops role. The latter is a former CEO of a technology company he sold in 2006. Cascade Lakes promises to refocus on the “quality of beer and the consistency of our products,” prexy Chris Justema said in release. He remains prexy and shareholder thru ownership transition. Cascade Lakes operates 2 brewpubs outside of its production brewery and sold just shy of 6,000 bbls in homestate Oregon last yr, state data shows. That’s up about 4% over prior yr. Co also recently hired new brewmaster, Ryan Schmiege, who spent 15 yrs as assistant brewmaster at Deschutes.
Elsewhere in the state, Agrarian Ales, a farm-based brewery in Oregon north of Eugene, closed over the winter. Decision to cease brewing ops seemingly due to “mismanagement of funds, along with legislative issues related to farm breweries,” The New School wrote in detailed report. A number of other breweries announced closures recently across the US. That includes Western Massachusetts-based Lefty’s Brewing, The Republican wrote. Co announced closure last week after opening in 2010. Husband-and-wife owners chose to “take life by the bullhorns and live to the fullest” after she started “experiencing health issues.” Meanwhile, owners of Louisville, KY’s Monnik Beer Co will close small sibling-brewery in Danville, called the Beer Engine, according to Insider Louisville. The owner of that property chose not to renew the brewery’s lease at a site his own bizzes shared with the brewery, the paper noted.
Separately, a couple of recent closings opened up oppys for the expansion plans of others, while others seek similar buyouts of locations or the companies themselves. In Chicago, Moody Tongue is moving into the South Loop space vacated by Baderbrau, the Chicago Tribune reported. Moody Tongue is leaving its original Pilsen brewery for about 2.5X the space at the 26K sq-ft facility. At same time, The Grocery Brewpub, operated by experienced Alabama restaurateur/food truck operator, is opening up in Homewood, using a space vacated by the recent closing of Red Hills Brewing, according to AL.com. Finally, Iron Triangle seeks a buyer for its Downtown LA brewery, according to a post on Full Pint (and for sale ad on Brewbound).
Two notable trends dominate brewery expansion and opening plans in early 2019: opening a second taproom or brewpub location and participating in a larger real estate (often re-)development project. We’ve written about many projects that fall into at least one of these categories over the last year or so and plans announced throughout March follow right in line. And it’s as true in cities known for their small breweries as it is in places with a far less developed craft beer culture.
For example, in Portland, OR, Great Notion Brewing opened its 2nd retail location, a brewpub with a small brewing system, extensive food program, guest beers and coffee shop in the morning, co announced early last month. Then today, the just-renovated Hopworks Urban Brewery location in the Northwest re-opens, rebranded from BikeBar restaurant as the Hopworks North Williams Pub & Beergarden, Brewpublic wrote last week. In the opposite corner of the country, Carolina Bauernhaus Brewery & Winery announced plans for its 2nd retail location, a 3,000 sq-ft pub inside of much larger 60K sq-ft mixed used development in co’s hometown of Greenville, SC. That development project will also include offices, restaurants and retail on over 5.5 acres of land. Commercial real estate firm CBRE, which has specifically studied brewery real estate, recall, expressed satisfaction with identifying the brewery as the project’s “entertainment/beverage anchor,” according to comments to the Upstate Business Journal.
Down in Georgia, a $94-mil redevelopment project of an old Augusta train depot will likely include a microbrewery as its very 1st tenant, developers told the Augusta Chronicle. Tho the brewery name isn’t public yet, it already submitted its letter-of-intent to be part of mixed-use development complete with offices, apartments, food and retail, natch. Elsewhere in the Southeast, real estate developers in Louisville, KY are also in the early stages of making space for a brewery at one of 2 redevelopment projects in the Butchertown nabe, according to the Courier-Journal.
Then there are the plans of Delaware-based restaurant developer SoDel Concepts, which announced coming 250-seat brewpub near Rehoboth, DE, adjacent to one of its current restaurants. This will be the 1st brewery for the co’s quickly expanding food empire, which includes a number of restaurants as well as small-scale soda and seasonings brands, Delaware Business Now reported. To help run the brewing side, SoDel has signed on Hershey, PA-based Troegs, which consulted with SoDel on its food projects.
Plenty of breweries are going more traditional routes too, opening up new retail-focused locations to deepen connections with consumers, often in new markets not far from original locations. Tucson-based Borderlands Brewing is opening a 2nd location, this time in Phoenix, putting a small brewery on-site to supplement beer from its production facility, according to the Arizona Daily Star. Austin, TX’s Hops & Grain also opened its 2nd brewery and taproom, this time in San Marcos, recently written up by the Austin CultureMap. (At same time, Houston’s Town in City Brewing put its existing <4,000 sq-ft site up for sale, with or without the 15-bbl brewhouse and 40-bbl fermenters, looking to relocate to a space at least twice the size, the Chronicle reported.) Indianapolis-based Metazoa Brewing opened in 2016 and will now open a 2nd taproom location in nearby Broad Ripple, sometime next yr, per Indy Biz Journal. Up in Gary, IN, 18th Street Brewery will add a barbecue program to its original brewpub ahead of plans to open a separate BBQ restaurant next yr. That co already operates a separate distillery and a separate sour-focused brewery, Northwest Indiana Times reminds.
Speaking of brewers going more deeply into food, Maine’s Oxbow is opening a beer garden followed by a farm-to-table restaurant in Oxford, a ski-town northwest of the co’s homebase in Newcastle and north of its downtown Portland location, reported WGME. Then there’s movement in the opposite direction, as Hawaii’s Real restaurant, long craft-focused, just reopened with a small brewing system to make in-house beers, Honolulu Magazine wrote.
The 2-yr old namesake brewery of Lawrence, KS is opening a second location across town, hoping to reach a new audience of folks in a new neighborhood, per Lawrence Journal-World. California’s Last Call Brewing moved its taproom to a standalone space 3X the size in Oakdale, the Modesto Bee reported. And in Syracuse, NY, Anything But Beer will open its first standalone downtown taproom, where it will serve its gluten-free and vegan-friendly alc bevs, made from basically anything but barley, including a variety of fruits and veggies, according to the Syracuse Post-Standard.
Trillium Plans 140K Sq-Ft Production Brewery in Canton; New Beer Garden/Taproom in Fenway
MA’s Trillium Brewing announced another two new projects late last week, including multi-year project for a sizable new all-encompassing “flagship production brewery in Canton” dubbed its “Forever Home” and a “unique year-round indoor/outdoor brewery and taproom” in Fenway neighborhood. Recall, Trillium currently operates in four separate facilities, including Fort Point neighborhood of Boston and Canton, MA, and two beer gardens. Plus, co plans to open its farm brewery/cidery in CT.
Trillium will take over former Reebok HQ in Canton, giving it 140K sq-ft for “Forever Home,” according to Boston Globe. “As we’ve grown, we’ve outgrown the space and are currently operating out of four separate facilities to maintain our production, taproom, barrel-aging laboratory, office and warehouse operations,” co explained. So the move “will open new doors for hospitality, while unifying our team and operations under one roof.” Yet this will be “gradual” and “stepwise” process “over the next couple years.” Meanwhile, Trillium Fenway will open later this year, with a “greenhouse-inspired space” located on the front lawn of 401 Park and with access to variety of food vendors at Time Out Market. “Being a part of this lush pocket in the city will give us a new way to bring people together,” sez co.
Constellation Craft Update: Ballast $$ -19% YTD in IRI; Funky Down in Hometown; Four Corners +27%
Constellation craft challenges are persisting in early 2019, deep dive report from Consumer Edge analyst Brett Cooper shows. Ballast Point declines continue to steepen leading up to spring 2019 resets; $$ sales down 19% in IRI YTD thru Mar 10 this yr, following -12% in 2018 and -6% in 2017. Funky Buddha and Four Corners each growing double-digits this year overall, while gaining distribution and velocity on smaller scales. But Funky Buddha is struggling in hometown Miami/Ft Lauderdale mkt. Funky declined 7 out of the last 11 4-wk periods thru Mar 10, Brett shows, including steep 15-20% drops Oct 2018 thru part of Jan 2019 and latest 4 wks thru Mar 10. That’s even as Funky distribution continued to grow to over 75% ACV in mkt. Four Corners grew 27% YTD following 82% growth in 2018 scans. TX sales are up 20% YTD, yet more modest low-to-mid single digit growth since Sep 2018 in hometown Dallas/Ft Worth.
Recall, Ballast Point Lager with 99 calories recently rolled out nationally, Four Corners El Grito lager will add SoCal mkt, Funky Buddha playing up new core brands in cans such as Vibin’ Lager and “I Want It Now!” Gose. And Funky Buddha and Four Corners will continue to expand regionally where they see oppys, Constellation execs shared during distrib meeting last mo. Plus, High West Standard expanding to 5 states and Pacifico playing up its craft-like credentials as more of a “high end sessionable” brand than import. But this year shaping up to be another tuff one for co’s craft portfolio.
Craft $$ +3% in Q1 IRI; IPAs in Top-25 Growth Brands; Yuengling Golden Solid Start, per Bump
Craft slowed again for latest 4wk period in scans, tho $$ sales remain up 2.9% YTD thru Mar 24 in IRI MULC, consultant Bump Williams showed in latest BWC Monthly Report. Recall, craft $$ were up 3.8% YTD thru Feb 24 (see Mar 8 issue). Craft grew 2% in IRI foodstores, and 5% in c-stores, slightly offset by -8% in smaller drugstores channel YTD thru Mar 24.
Fast-growing FMBs and “better-for-you” brands featured most of all thruout Bump’s update, rather than craft, as has been the case for last couple yrs now. Indeed, 16 of the 25 fastest growing brands YTD are FMBs (among top-250 total beer brands), including 9 hard seltzers and 7 “fruit/cocktail styled beverages.” Seven hard seltzers were among top $$ gainers overall as well, including White Claw Variety Pk with 3d largest overall $$ gain (+348%, $26.7 mil) behind only Modelo Especial (+$60.7 mil) and Mich Ultra (+$53.4 mil). Yet select number of craft brands are still able to stand out among top-growth brands and fastest trending brands nationally too. All of em IPAs, natch. Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing IPA still more than doubling, up 165%, +$4.3 mil YTD thru Mar 24. That was 18th largest $$ gain and 21st fastest trend among top growth brands in total beer (looking at top-250 brands only), Bump shows. Elysian Space Dust IPA was 24th best-gainer, up 32%, $3.2 mil. And New Belgium Voodoo Juicy IPA (+136% to $3.3 mil) and Georgetown Bodhizafa IPA (+133% to $2.05 mil) were #24 and #25 fastest trends among top-250 beer brands in scans. Also gotta note, Yuengling’s new Golden Pilsner is #1 fastest trending brand YTD, with almost entirely incremental $3.46 mil in sales vs LY; also 23d largest $$ gain among top-250 beer brands.
Mahou Upped Stake in Avery to 70%
Avery Brewing has “expanded” its partnership with Spanish brewer, Mahou San Miguel, as Mahou upped stake to 70% from initial 30% investment when deal struck in late 2017, Avery announced. Mahou is referred to as “long-term strategic partner” that will “continue to focus investment in areas such as Sales, Marketing, and National Accounts,” in tandem with Founders Brewing, while focusing most on CO and White Rascal Belgian White for Avery. Majority ownership will “create more opportunities to continue our dedication to ‘Beer First,’ our team and growth in our craft,” said founder Adam Avery. “This agreement strengthens the development of Mahou’s business in the United States,” and “represents another step that will bring us closer to achieve the leadership of family brewers in the craft and Premium sector at national and international level,” stated Mahou general manager, Alberto Rodriguez-Toquero. Combo of Founders and Avery collectively surpassed 600K bbls, tho that’s essentially all driven by Founders of late.
Gotta note, Avery’s first year in partnership with Mahou was a bit of a bumpy ride. Avery went thru two rounds of layoffs (tho hired back 7 new positions more focused on natl accounts and CO mkt), former COO resigned, and sales ultimately were challenged in 2018. Co also began contract brewing for Founders All Day IPA this year to help fill up some idle capacity (see Vol 9, #108). Yet all moves made were to “have more opportunities” and “focus resources” more “toward things that have the most impact,” director of sales and marketing BK Krueger told CBN last year. On top of White Rascal, natl accounts and CO focus, Avery’s recently been playing up new trendy IPAs, such as Hazyish IPA year-round in 2019, just launched Double Digit Hazy IPA at 10% ABV, new Brut IPA and Go Play IPA launch in 2d half of 2018, touting electrolyte attributes from sodium and potassium and marketed as an “active” IPA.
BA Craft Grew 4% to 25.9 Mil Bbls Produced in 2018; Regionals “Static”; 1K Openings, 219 Closings
Brewers Assn-defined indie craft brewers are settling into 3d straight year of mid-single digit growth, as BA craft grew an estimated 4% to 25.9 mil bbls produced in 2018, org announced today. That’s another sequential slowdown vs prior 2 years of +6% in 2016, +5% in 2017. And recall, BA estimated indie craft up 5% in 1st half of 2018. Suggests BA craft slowed to +3% in 2d half of 2018.
Yet despite the increasingly prevalent narrative of tuffer times in craftland, BA craft gained another 0.6 share to 13.2 of total beer volume (not including FMBs; more like 12.7 share with FMBs). And retail dollar sales grew 7% to $27.6 bil, representing 24 share of total beer $$, BA chief economist Bart Watson estimates. Growth continues to shift more toward the tail, coming from microbreweries and own-premise, he acknowledged on conference call. Regional brewer growth was “largely static” in 2018. Yet own premise sales grew about 400K bbls to 3.1 mil bbls, Bart estimates (in line with TTB’s “premises use” estimate of 434K bbls, +16% growth). And younger brewers that opened within the last 3 yrs are adding more growth than longer established brewers.
(Editor’s note: BA figures very similar to our 2018 estimates early this year, +4% to 26.15 mil bbls, even tho BA and BMI define category different: BA includes Yuengling, we don’t; BA excludes craft partners of big brewers, we don’t, etc.)
While growth in volume characterized as “fairly stable” by Bart, several other aspects of craft still acclerating. Rate of new brewery openings picked up, as another 1,049 new breweries opened in 2018, bringing total brewery count to 7,346 in calendar year. Rate of closings continues to pick up as well, as 219 breweries closed their doors last year, up from 165 in 2017. But openings still occurring at 5:1 ratio, also a contributing factor toward volume growth, Bart pointed out on conference call. BA counted 4,521 microbreweries, 2,594 brewpubs, and 231 regional brewers by end of 2018. Number of jobs created by craft brewers increased by 11% to 150K, BA estimates, now looking more granularly at jobs created at taproom level, Bart acknowledged.
Overall, 4% growth is “positive sign” within a “slower growth market” for total beer, sez Bart. Each year there’s “more demand for full flavored beers.” But each coming year is “more competitive than we’ve seen in the past,” he added. Growth per brewer is “much lower than in the past,” and 4% growth is not as “sustainable” for some biz models vs others. Both geography and biz model increasingly play a role in ability for brewers to grow, and there are particular “challenges in broader distribution.” Most developed craft mkts like OR and CO, and major metro areas across the country are proving to be more challenging mkts as well. But local brewers collectively continue to grow overall in these mkts. And more underdeveloped craft mkts like FL and TX got multiple shout outs for showing continued growth of both brewery counts and growth in distribution on the call. More brewers, from larger craft players to small taproom-only cos alike, are expected to further experiment with ancillary bevs such as hard seltzers, ciders, wine & spirits, Bart added. But BA will continue to count those bevs separately from small and indie owned beer. Net-net, “the beer landscape is facing new realities with category competition, societal shifts, and other variables in play,” but “there are still pockets of opportunity.”

