Beer Marketer's Insights
Sierra and NBB Continue Growth Streaks Thru Aug Nielsen; Slightly Better Sam; Blue Moon Slip
Craft beer sales continue to improve in Aug scans, especially when looking at segment without big brewer brand drags from Blue Moon, Leinenkugel and Shock Top. Nielsen-defined craft (which includes those 3 brands among other large brewer brands) saw just marginal improvement; volume grew 0.1% and $$ up 1.1% for 4 wks thru Aug 31 vs -0.3% and +0.9% YTD. Yet excluding Blue Moon, Shock Top, Leinie, all other Nielsen craft collectively improved to volume +2.5%, $$ up 3.2% for 4 wks; volume +1.9%, $$ +2.9% YTD. Sierra Nevada and New Belgium’s continued acceleration remain key growth factors lately.
Sierra Nevada $$ grew 7% for 4 wks vs +1% YTD; and New Belgium up 12% for 4 wks vs +9% YTD. Sierra gained additional 0.3 share of Nielsen craft $$ to 6.1 in latest 4 wks thru Aug 31 vs no gain YTD. And New Belgium gained 0.5 share to 4.5 of craft $$ for 4 wks vs 0.36 gain YTD. Meanwhile, Sam Adams brand family continues to curb decline rate, tho $$ still dipped 7% for 4 wks vs -11% YTD. Sam shed 0.5 share of craft $$ to 6.05 for period vs 0.7 drop YTD.
Another key change went in the opposite direction: after mos of positive growth, flagship Blue Moon Belgian White and Blue Moon franchise slipped back into decline. Blue Moon franchise dipped 3% for 4 wks thru Aug 31 (both $$ and volume) as Belgian White volume off 0.4%, $$ -0.8%. Recall, Blue Moon Belgian White just had its best qtr in yrs in Q2, and jumped +5% in July Nielsen data with double-digit growth in big chains like Walmart and Albertsons (see Aug 20 issue). That’s just as co launched new set of ads for Blue Moon, “Once in a Blue Moon.” Then too, Leinenkugel Shandies (-19%) and Shock Top (-29%) each declined at steeper rates for 4 wks vs YTD.
Last month, two separate but related analyses of the CDC's mortality data delivered a potent 1-2 punch. The first found that a remarkably high portion of young adult deaths in the US between 2015 and 2019 could be attributed to excessive alcohol use. The second compounded those figures by providing an update on the sharp increase in alcohol-induced deaths in 2020, the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic. Taken together, they paint a detailed and dark picture of alcohol's impact on American adult mortality.
BevNet Live conference always brings diverse range of contestants spanning multiple trending categories to its reality-show-style Showdown competition. Here are thumbnails of the 5 brands that made it to final round but ultimately succumbed to grand winner Sans, the alc-alternative brand we profiled a week ago (BBI, Dec 10).
Keurig Dr Pepper may have made waves with talk in past year of $20 bil M&A war chest, but it's actually managed to accomplish substantial amount of portfolio renovation with expenditure of just $1.5 bil since co was created via merger of Keurig Green Mountain and Dr Pepper Snapple Group. The relatively modest expenditure has dramatically improved co's relevance in water and energy categories and paved way for move into alcohol, thanks to flexible partnership model, said ceo Bob Gamgort in q&a with Bank of America's Brian Spillane. "We did all of that and deployed about $1.5 billion cumulatively over the past 4 and a half years at reasonable valuation multiples," he said. That was enabled by model of flexible partnerships, and "gives us more optionality" to do further deals, he said.
More Consumers Expect to Increase On-Prem Visits, Spend & "Quality" Drinks in 2023, Per CGA
On-premise consumer metrics have been fairly consistent thruout 2022, according to CGA survey data. And encouragingly, more consumers expect to visit on prem more frequently and plan to "spend more on better quality drinks" in 2023. Just over 2/3 (67%) of consumers visited restaurants and/or bars for "food-led" occasions and 37% visited for "drink-led" occasions in past 2 wks ending Dec 9, per latest CGA survey of 1,601 respondents from FL, TX, CA and NY. Pretty much where these survey stats have been all year long, tho a bit below peak percentages.
Distributed Craft "Struggling Now," "Won't Grow in 2023," Sez Bart; Fewer Openings, More Closings
At end of a "challenging and competitive year" for US craft brewers, Brewers Assn economist Bart Watson presented mixed view of current biz and 2023 outlook this wk. "Distributed craft is struggling now," Bart acknowledged, pointing to retail scan data and NBWA's BPI trends. And pressures "aren't going anywhere in the medium term," suggesting to him that "distributed craft volume won't grow in 2023," he predicted.
Mich Ultra, Stella, Busch Light AB's Top Priorities in C-Stores; New NUTRL Resealable Lid & More
AB is preppin' for big pushes to expand various core brand SKUs in c-stores while peppering in various new items too, according to an AB deck that source shared with INSIGHTS. Top objective is to bolster distribution and close gaps for Mich Ultra, Stella Artois, and Busch Light in c-stores with single-serves as well as various larger packs like 18pks and 12pks. While 25oz single-serve cans are big focus points for these brands and several other AB brands, 18pks are #1 priority packs in c-stores for both Mich Ultra and Busch Light, per deck. Those have biggest gaps between current distribution and target levels.
Andrews Dist of Dallas signed deal last night to buy 1.25-mil-case Price Dist in Ennis, TX. Announced to employees a while back, this deal will reportedly close today. Andrews already in this territory with Coors brands, but now will acquire Miller, Constellation, Boston, HUSA, Gambrinus and more.
Will one someday be packed in a capsule aboard a rocket ship headed to Mars? With one local smash after another, the Erewhon smoothie seems to have become a thing over past 2 years - enough that Fashionista this week offered "A closer look at the most coveted collaboration in wellness," per sub-headline. Article thumbnails Southern Calif chain's rapid rise as a hipper alternative to Whole Foods since that chain's acquisition by Amazon, and the perfect destination for cutting-edge beauty brands. But "even if securing Erewhon as a retailer isn't a priority for some beauty and wellness brands, there are other ways to get prime real estate in the store and align with the type of customer it attracts," story notes. "Enter: the branded smoothie."
The fast-delivery channel that seemed to be blossoming into important curated retail tier for food/bev is continuing its rapid consolidation, this time with Turkey's pioneering player Getir acquiring German rival Gorillas for what Reuters reported to be $1.2 bil. "The deal price is down sharply from Gorillas' $2.1 billion valuation in its previous funding round in late 2021 - a sign the sector has fallen out of favor as companies battle to achieve profitability, join forces or fold," wire service reported. Both are highly active in US. Getir launched in Turkey in 2015 and operates in 9 countries . . . C&G operators may be moving at sluggish pace to onboard cannabis items due to regulatory stasis, but Jackson BevCo is taking big step into category via managed services agreement (MSA) with Toronto-based CordovaCann "to facilitate the opening and operation of cannabis retail stores within or beside convenience stores owned and operated by Jacksons," per recent announcement. Jacksons operates 65 c-stores in western states under Big Smoke and Tobacco Connection banners and is a unit of Jackson Food Stores, which owns & operates 361 c-stores across US and is jv partner with 2,000 more. Under terms of non-binding LOI, partners will pay Cordova a royalty for its services in navigating regulatory process, compliance, training, security and inventory selection and procurement for stores owned & operated by Jackson. They're aiming to have MSA executed by Jan and first stores open next year, with Wash, Ore and Ariz likely to enter mix.