Sales of spirits declined 1.9% in control states in Oct, NABCA reported. That's softest month since July when volume off closer to 3%. And combo of price increases and trade up just offset the volume decline, not providing as much lift as it has been. Price/mix up 2% for the mo, about a pt slower than 12-mo avg. So control state spirits $$ sales up a slight 0.1%. And October trends not impacted heavily by selling days, either, NABCA noted. Longer-term, 12-mo rolling volume now up just 0.2%, $$ up 3%.

Federal data suggests alc bev prices are only up mid-single digits, but consumers perceive them to be 23.1% higher than last yr, a survey of almost 2,400 folks by PYMNTS found. Across the board, "consumers tend to estimate that prices increased significantly more than [govt] estimates," according to report. That includes perception that prices for gas are up 43%, building materials +35%, new/used cars +33% and appliances +32%.

Not that often that an analyst puts "sell" ratings on 2 beer cos in same day. But Deutsche Bank's Steve Powers tagged both Molson Coors and Boston Beer with that rating this morn, albeit for very different reasons. For Molson Coors, Steve sees "tough top line comparisons, heightened competition and still-elevated costs amidst declining consumer health and macro volatility" in 2023 that "keep us cautious." However, he does give Molson Coors some credit. "To be fair, TAP's management deserves ample credit for stabilizing/enhancing top line trends through the revitalization strategy…. That said, overall progress on profitability has been more limited." Boston Beer also a "sell," but that's mostly based on "persistent softness in the seltzer category" and rising costs. Plus SAM is already trading "~35x next year's consensus forecasts." At press time, Molson Coors stock down 3% and Boston Beer stock down 5%.

Tho it's too soon to give "complete reassurance" that price increases landed well and won't change consumer behavior, for now US consumer appears "resilient" and Molson Coors hasn't "seen much trade down," said ceo Gavin Hattersley today at Morgan Stanley's Global Consumer & Retail Conference. MC didn't have any "meaningful difficulties" implementing price increases with retailers, he noted. And while premiumization is indeed slowing, that's largely due to seltzer's struggles. If trade down does come "we're well positioned" with economy portfolio, said Gavin. Oct was a "tough" volume month for the industry and trends "improved in November," he commented. But latest scan data suggests MC share gains "continued into the fourth quarter," while MC $$ share is "pretty flat" YTD, something co hasn't been able to say "for a while."

Constellation beer biz remains in position of strength, on track to hit net sales growth target of +7-9% and outperforming competition significantly, cfo Garth Hankinson highlighted at Morgan Stanley's Global Consumer Staples & Retail Conference today. While Garth couldn't talk about Q3 results in quiet period, he did address more recent slowdown in scan data. It's "largely driven by performance in California," said Garth. Co's going against "tough overlap" of mid-teens growth vs same time last yr and this year is "very different weather" in SoCal, about "twenty degrees" cooler. That's having an outsized impact on STZ's results since CA still makes up 23% of overall sales, Garth reminded. But co's encouraged that it continues to "take share" of both "broader category" and high-end segments in CA, "outperforming the competitive set." Modelo's also posting strong growth in less developed mkts, including up 30% in Portland and Seattle. Up similar rates in Asheville and Richmond, plus rapid growth in New Orleans, South Dakota, and Salt Lake City, Garth rattled off, among others. That "gets back to the runway of growth for Modelo Especial specifically" as well as rest of the portfolio.

For decades, Denny and JT Cohlmia processed aseptic dairy items like soft-serve ice cream, smoothies and coffee creamers at their expanding KanPak copacking empire in Kansas and China, before eventually selling out to Golden State Foods in 2013. The married couple shed the last vestige of their stake in GSF this past Apr and now has very much opened a new chapter of their lives, occupying a position at the leading edge of the dairy-alternative movement. The first items have hit their market based on Perfect Day's animal-free whey protein - "the world's first milk protein that's bioidentical to the protein found in cow's milk but produced sustainably without cows and without the downsides of lactose, hormones, antibiotics or factory farms." That initial range includes a pair of protein-rich FreeMilks in Whole and Chocolate versions, augmented by almond, oat and oat barista altmilks, and there's a flock more on the way in early 2023. Single-serve units of the FreeMilk in kids-sized 8-oz packs are due in Jan/Feb timeframe in the Whole and Chocolate versions. Protein shakes are due later in Q1, with about 20 g of protein per serving. Also in the pipeline for some time in first half is Strive Protein Water, positioned as an alternative to the coterie of hotfilled entries that populate that segment, boosted with functional ingredients and geared to active female users, perhaps in smaller pack of 12-oz or so than the 16-oz entries currently on market.

In recent years the natural-grocer-to-the-stars Erewhon has grappled with right stance to take on plastic-bottle water, greenlighting purportedly functional or spring-water-based entries like Essentia or Eternal or the rPET brand Zen WTR but slamming the door on tap water brands like Hint. Now a new brand has entered the mix that points to another possible direction on issue: Cove, with bottle that it claims is fully biodegradable. No indication of what economics are, but line showed up on shelves there in past few days at $3.69 for 20-oz bottle. It's labeled just as "still water," so pitch is not about the liquid but the package. "When we were introduced to Cove, we were incredibly excited to be part of this innovative and potentially world-changing moment for CPG - the world's first fully biodegradable water bottle is something we are very proud to be launching at Erewhon," per Erewhon evp Vito Antoci.

Leading bevcos current and future forays into alc bevs a major recurring theme during several sessions at today's Beverage Digest Future Smarts conference, normally just focused on NA bevs. Asked by Bev Digest editor Duane Stanford if Coke will buy an alc bevco, Coca-Cola Lat Am prexy Henrique Braun (who ascends to role of prexy int'l development on Jan 1) didn't answer the question directly but made several positive comments about KO's alc bev ventures so far. It's a "good complement to our portfolio" and "right to be in that category," he said. "Think about it," he then said, this is "a very big deal," after Coca Cola's 136 years as a bevco. KO wants to be a "total beverage company" and "to capture those socialization moments" it must be "consumer-centric." Tho this is "still early days" the "more we get into" alc bevs, and "the more we learn" that could potentially bring more opportunities. (Recall that KO did play in the wine biz about 40 years ago.)

PepsiCo said it plans to "double the percentage of all beverage servings that it sells delivered through reusable models from 10 to 20% by 2030." Co notes commitment to reusable pkging "has been an important element" of its Sustainable Packaging Vision since it bought SodaStream for $3.2 bil in 2018. "PepsiCo will accelerate our investment in disruptive innovation and advocate for policies that allow us to scale up reusable packaging options, platforms and programs so that we can offer consumers a wide variety of alternative ways to enjoy their favorite beverages while moving away from reliance on single-use packaging," said chief sustainability officer Jim Andrew.