Beer Marketer's Insights
When spirits products contain wine and other flavors, they can get a tax credit for the volume of those additions. But it's just one of "innumerable special-interest credits and deductions that litter our tax code," former US Sen Max Baucus, Democrat from MT, wrote in op-ed printed by Wall St Journal today. "The credit is primarily used by large foreign liquor manufacturers," he argues and "no data suggest this credit is useful for American small businesses." In his view, it "lacks transparency" and could cause "consumer confusion," too, allowing "more additives" that "consumers may not even know they are consuming."
Molson Coors hired new category management veep Nancy Bedwell, effective Dec 5, it told distribs today. "This is a new, elevated role in our Category Management structure that reinforces how important we believe insight driven, category centric thinking is to deliver the Molson Coors Advantage to our retail and distributor customers," incoming chief commercial solutions officer Andrew McGuire shared with INSIGHTS. "There was no real predecessor in this role."
On premise had a 58% increase in sales velocity on Thanksgiving last week, versus an avg Thur night, per latest CGA by NielsenIQ's BeverageTrak data (tracking food & bevs). Ticket count sank 33% but check value jumped 136% to make up for it. Wed night before holiday (traditionally a busy night for on premise) saw sales increase 25% compared to an avg Wed. Premium bars drove Wed gain with a 54% surge in velocity while ticket count was up 67%. In states tracked, on premise sales velocity is down 2% in Tex, 3% in Fla, 4% in NY for most recent week thru Nov 26 vs yr ago, while up 3% in Calif and 6% in Ill.
"For next year, we are deliberately being a bit conservative," Heineken ceo Dolf van Den Brink told Reuters, by "forecasting a decline in volumes in Europe, not because we see declines today, but because of the (economic) situation." However, "the company still sees stable or modestly higher global volumes," wrote Reuters. "A nice premium beer is a luxury you can afford," said Dolf. Recall, Heineken "launched its 'EverGreen' strategic revamp early last year," noted Reuters, targeting 2 bil Euros in cost savings. It will get past that target next yr "and then plans to find productivity improvements of 400 million euros per year." While there is "greater stress on cost control," Heineken still seeks volume growth. The #2 global brewer "is shutting" down 7 of its 50 European breweries, "reduced its product range and is channeling more marketing into fewer brands," according to Reuters. Heineken has "high hopes" for Heineken Silver, which started in Vietnam in 2019 and was the biggest launch of any FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) product in Europe this year. The $100 mil it will spend on Silver next yr in the US is its "biggest ever launch."
With above-core segments now over half of beer industry volume and over 40% of AB revs generated from above core brands, AB continues to put big emphasis on High End and Brewers Collective portfolio. AB's "poised to continue to capitalize on that direction," veep of High End/Brewers Collective Nate Muszcyzynski and mktg veep for High End/Brewers Collective Carrie Shafir underscored in chat with INSIGHTS. "Craft will be a key anchor point in our growth plans," Stella Artois remains "our largest and most important high-end brand," and Estrella Jalisco is having a "phenomenal year," Nate noted.
It's time to stop expecting the beer industry will return to 2019 levels and accept the new norms, Whole Foods global principal category merchant for beer & spirits, Mary Guiver, and Buffalo Wild Wings veep of brand menu & culinary, Jamie Carawan stated at Brewbound Live. "Trying to get back to where we were and trying to level out, that was years ago at this point," said Mary. "Our customers are very different," and "our challenge now is to just call it what it is and just look ahead, try and figure out what the future is and realize that we're just in a different space entirely. There's no level-setting at this point, it's forward looking," she added.
"Alcohol Is the Clear Net Sales Winner" During Pandemic Across Several Categories, Shows Bernstein
Bernstein's team of 10 global cpg analysts "reflect" this morn on how the "pandemic rocked both our sectors and the broader market." They "assess: who have been the ultimate winners after the turbulent last three years? And where to from here for the consumer?" And the answer is that "alcohol is the clear net sales winner on a three-year stack," compared to European and American food cos, Euro bev cos and North American cannabis cos. About 30 cos in all. Looking at net sales numbers for the first half of 2022 vs first half 2019, alcohol companies, especially distillers, top the rankings. Boston Beer's first half of 2022 almost 80% higher than 2019, even with seltzer falling this year.
Thoughtful, detailed report on NA beer prospects from Consumer Edge's Brett Cooper shows wide competitive variations by state, premiumization as the driver of growth, and continued upside to segment for many reasons (Brett lists 10 "structural supports" — see below). NA beer is "seeing outsized growth with outlook supported by consumer and industry factors," as Brett headlined. Segment has a 3 yr CAGR in mid-20s. "Premiumization has been a big driver of the accelerated growth in the segment," according to Brett. Above-premium NAs up roughly 30 share compared to 5 yrs ago. Higher-priced non-alc beer "has accounted for 60% of total" NA growth in period and was just 8 share of NA "at outset of the period." (This article also appeared in sibling pub INSIGHTS Express.)
Molson Coors' efforts to make Hop Valley a natl growth brand did not sustain in 2022 as co continues to shift more of its craft efforts toward larger natl brands. So MC's Tenth & Blake is narrowing focus on Hop Valley Stash brands going forward, putting bigger emphasis on home PacNW mkts and CA while lookin' for oppys in individual mkts elsewhere across the country, 10th & Blake prexy Jeff Agase shared with CBN. Amid changing dynamics with Hop Valley, co-founder Walter MacBeth left the co earlier this yr, Jeff confirmed. While co didn't provide reason for Walter's departure, Jeff highlighted that longtime employee, Brandon Ross, stepped up to natl sales director role. Brandon moved up to role in June 2022, according to LinkedIn, and has been with co for nearly 10 yrs, including more recently as head of key accounts. Before that, he worked at AB for nearly 10 yrs in on-prem sales.
AB Brewers Collective portfolio continues to outpace craft segment and gain sizable share in 2022, and "craft will be a key anchor point in our growth plans" as beer biz continues to premiumize heading into 2023, VP of High End/Brewers Collective Nate Muszcyzynski and VP of mktg for High End/Brewers Collective Carrie Shafir underscored in chat with CBN. AB's 18 acquired craft beer cos collectively dipped 2% to $483 mil YTD thru Oct 30 in IRI multi-outlet + convenience data. That includes $17.6 mil of beyond beer (excluding spirits brands) down more than 20% amid seltzer drops. So AB acquired craft beer actually a bit healthier, down just 1%. Still gaining 0.5 share of craft segment to 11.9 total in IRI. Even including Shock Top decline (-20%), AB craft still up nearly 0.4 pts to 12.5 share of craft $$ YTD. Tho with so many brand fams, there are lots of ups and downs within the portfolio and changing dynamics.

