Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Constellation beer biz remains in position of strength, on track to hit net sales growth target of +7-9% and outperforming competition significantly, cfo Garth Hankinson highlighted at Morgan Stanley's Global Consumer Staples & Retail Conference today. While Garth couldn't talk about Q3 results in quiet period, he did address more recent slowdown in scan data. It's "largely driven by performance in California," said Garth. Co's going against "tough overlap" of mid-teens growth vs same time last yr and this year is "very different weather" in SoCal, about "twenty degrees" cooler. That's having an outsized impact on STZ's results since CA still makes up 23% of overall sales, Garth reminded. But co's encouraged that it continues to "take share" of both "broader category" and high-end segments in CA, "outperforming the competitive set." Modelo's also posting strong growth in less developed mkts, including up 30% in Portland and Seattle. Up similar rates in Asheville and Richmond, plus rapid growth in New Orleans, South Dakota, and Salt Lake City, Garth rattled off, among others. That "gets back to the runway of growth for Modelo Especial specifically" as well as rest of the portfolio.

After bigtime pop in Sep, imports predictably cooled off in Oct. Total imports slipped 3%, shedding 117K bbls for the mo, per Beer Inst report citing US dept of commerce data. So total US shipments in Oct still down nearly 5% including imports and domestic taxpaids. Mexican imports posted low-single-digit decline in Oct following big double-digit gain in Sep. Its first mo of decline in 2022. Tho Mexican imports still rockin' up 9%, 2.3 mil bbls YTD thru Oct. Well above total imports' 1.3%, 477K-bbl gain for the year. Most top import countries declined in Oct, including Dutch shipments down steep double-digits. Irish shipments eked out growth for the mo and Italian shipments grew double-digits off small base. Net-net, total US shipments down 3% thru 10 mos, current estimates suggest (prior to any TTB revisions for the yr). Stay tuned.

For decades, Denny and JT Cohlmia processed aseptic dairy items like soft-serve ice cream, smoothies and coffee creamers at their expanding KanPak copacking empire in Kansas and China, before eventually selling out to Golden State Foods in 2013. The married couple shed the last vestige of their stake in GSF this past Apr and now has very much opened a new chapter of their lives, occupying a position at the leading edge of the dairy-alternative movement. The first items have hit their market based on Perfect Day's animal-free whey protein - "the world's first milk protein that's bioidentical to the protein found in cow's milk but produced sustainably without cows and without the downsides of lactose, hormones, antibiotics or factory farms." That initial range includes a pair of protein-rich FreeMilks in Whole and Chocolate versions, augmented by almond, oat and oat barista altmilks, and there's a flock more on the way in early 2023. Single-serve units of the FreeMilk in kids-sized 8-oz packs are due in Jan/Feb timeframe in the Whole and Chocolate versions. Protein shakes are due later in Q1, with about 20 g of protein per serving. Also in the pipeline for some time in first half is Strive Protein Water, positioned as an alternative to the coterie of hotfilled entries that populate that segment, boosted with functional ingredients and geared to active female users, perhaps in smaller pack of 12-oz or so than the 16-oz entries currently on market.

In recent years the natural-grocer-to-the-stars Erewhon has grappled with right stance to take on plastic-bottle water, greenlighting purportedly functional or spring-water-based entries like Essentia or Eternal or the rPET brand Zen WTR but slamming the door on tap water brands like Hint. Now a new brand has entered the mix that points to another possible direction on issue: Cove, with bottle that it claims is fully biodegradable. No indication of what economics are, but line showed up on shelves there in past few days at $3.69 for 20-oz bottle. It's labeled just as "still water," so pitch is not about the liquid but the package. "When we were introduced to Cove, we were incredibly excited to be part of this innovative and potentially world-changing moment for CPG - the world's first fully biodegradable water bottle is something we are very proud to be launching at Erewhon," per Erewhon evp Vito Antoci.

Leading bevcos current and future forays into alc bevs a major recurring theme during several sessions at today's Beverage Digest Future Smarts conference, normally just focused on NA bevs. Asked by Bev Digest editor Duane Stanford if Coke will buy an alc bevco, Coca-Cola Lat Am prexy Henrique Braun (who ascends to role of prexy int'l development on Jan 1) didn't answer the question directly but made several positive comments about KO's alc bev ventures so far. It's a "good complement to our portfolio" and "right to be in that category," he said. "Think about it," he then said, this is "a very big deal," after Coca Cola's 136 years as a bevco. KO wants to be a "total beverage company" and "to capture those socialization moments" it must be "consumer-centric." Tho this is "still early days" the "more we get into" alc bevs, and "the more we learn" that could potentially bring more opportunities. (Recall that KO did play in the wine biz about 40 years ago.)

PepsiCo said it plans to "double the percentage of all beverage servings that it sells delivered through reusable models from 10 to 20% by 2030." Co notes commitment to reusable pkging "has been an important element" of its Sustainable Packaging Vision since it bought SodaStream for $3.2 bil in 2018. "PepsiCo will accelerate our investment in disruptive innovation and advocate for policies that allow us to scale up reusable packaging options, platforms and programs so that we can offer consumers a wide variety of alternative ways to enjoy their favorite beverages while moving away from reliance on single-use packaging," said chief sustainability officer Jim Andrew.

Keurig Dr Pepper is filling the shoes of retiring chief scientist David Thomas with a Pepsi vet who spent her last several years at a plant-based startup. Dr Karin Rotem-Wildeman will take post of chief R&D officer on Jan 9, reporting to chmn/ceo Bob Gamgort as 16-year vet Thomas moves on, as previously announced. Rotem-Wildeman brings 25 years of diverse experience, most recently as chief scientific officer at LiveKindly Collective plant-based startup. Before that, she served at familiar CPG brands as global head of R&D at Godiva Chocolatier and, before that, 18 years at PepsiCo in global R&D roles across bevs and food. She began her career in Nestle's foodservice div, KDP said.

There's been a changing of guard at Super Coffee: the seasoned operator and investor Tyler Ricks has stepped up to ceo role, succeeding co's youthful cofounder Jimmy DeCicco, who steps up to exec chmn and chief brand officer. They're among c-suite that includes Jimmy's young brothers and cofounders Jake as chief revenue officer, running sales, and coo Jordan leading operations and corporate culture. In another change, chief commercial officer Sanjiv Chhatwal, longtime Anheuser-Busch exec who signed on early this year, is departing operating duties in favor of advisory board role, though he'll continue to serve as key liaison with A-B, Super Coffee's minority investor and natl distribution partner.

Breakthru Bev Group makin' some key leadership promotions from within in preparation for cco E Lloyd Sobel's planned retirement. Kevin Roberts and Julian Burzynski will get bumped up to "newly designed" chief commercial officer and chief operating officer roles effective Jan 1, 2023, co announced. "As Breakthru continues to expand our North American footprint, advance our capabilities and deliver operational and executional excellence, we have the opportunity to evolve our leadership team to meet the demands of our future growth ambition," stated prexy & ceo Tom Bené. Recall, part of those growth plans involve bigger investments in Midwest beer distribution as Breakthru acquired JJ Taylor in MN and Major Brands in MO earlier this yr, and co recently signed on Yuengling in MO (see Oct 12 issue).

Still lotsa action in cannabiz on legal/regulatory side as new mkts form while some of the longest established mkts reflect on 10 yrs since approving recreational cannabis and challenges going forward. In NV, winners of the first cannabis lounge licenses were just announced last week, and in NJ, state Cannabis Regulatory Commission (CRC) "approved rules for 'public consumption areas' on Friday," reported Marijuana Moment. This puts NJ "one step closer" to finding "additional spaces" for lawful consumption. In drafted rules, food can't be sold on-site, tho people can bring their own or have it delivered, and alcohol and tobacco can't be sold or consumed at the premises. "Proposed application fee and microbusiness and standard license fees for the facilities would be $1,000," and operators would be able to have indoor and outdoor accommodations as long as outdoor areas are "enclosed." Rules will be posted to NJ Register, giving 60-day period for public comments. "When regulated properly, cannabis consumption areas can strengthen the industry, while giving people more choices on where they consume," stated CRC chair Dianna Houenou.