Beer Marketer's Insights
Thoughtful, detailed report on NA beer prospects from Consumer Edge's Brett Cooper shows wide competitive variations by state, premiumization as the driver of growth, and continued upside to segment for many reasons (Brett lists 10 "structural supports"—see below). NA beer is "seeing outsized growth with outlook supported by consumer and industry factors," as Brett headlined. Segment has a 3 yr CAGR in mid-20s. "Premiumization has been a big driver of the accelerated growth in the segment," according to Brett. Above-premium NAs up roughly 30 share compared to 5 yrs ago. Higher-priced non-alc beer "has accounted for 60% of total" NA growth in period and was just 8 share of NA "at outset of the period."
It's good to be a global brewer. Or at least, so say the analysts of late. Following JP Morgan's double upgrade of ABI stock earlier this wk, Bernstein and Jefferies reiterated their outperform ratings on Heineken. Ahead of its 2-day capital markets event, Heineken reconfirmed guidance for this yr and next, tacking on additional color for 2023 and long-term outlook. Bernstein called the plans "everything we had hoped they would say and a bit more," while Jefferies labeled Heineken "a lean, green, compounding machine." JP Morgan reportedly downgraded co to neutral on Mon (as it bumped up ABI). But Heineken stock up ~4% today, following day 1 of event.
More Alcohol in Coke's Future? "Transformative" Deal Possible, Sez Evercore ISI; "Why Not Alcohol?"
Recent moves by Coca-Cola, including cutting its brands by 50%, have "cleared the deck so that the System can focus on scaled global bets," wrote Evercore ISI's Robert Ottenstein. KO has goal of doubling its consumer base in next 10 yrs. "In our meetings with management earlier this month, the firm suggested it would keep its eyes open for something 'bigger' and 'transformative.' Why not alcohol," asked Robert.
Austin Beerworks Building "Forever Home"; Launching Lifetime Membership Program to Help Fund
Austin Beerworks is planning to open up its second taproom and "forever home" after snagging a 64-acre site in East Austin. But it's also adding a crowdfunding component to help fund the buildout, announcing a new Beerworks for Life program that offers patrons oppy to pay $1K for a lifetime membership that includes first drink free for every visit. Austin Beerworks will keep its current taproom at least thru its lease ending in 2025, with new location targeting spring 2023 opening, Eater reports. Co finished 2021 at 17.4K bbls, up 12% vs yr ago but still below pre-Covid levels just over 20K bbls.
CA's Kern River Brewing Forms ESOP
Another craft brewer is now employee owned. Kernville, CA's Kern River Brewing joined the relatively small ESOP club (employee-stock-ownership-plan) after owners Eric and Rebecca Giddens turned their biz over to employees, including themselves, on the day before Thanksgiving, SF Gate reports. While the brewpub only produces around 4K bbls annually, it's won multiple awards over the yrs. But after beginning their brewery journey back in 2005, the Giddens - who met while training as kayakers for the US Olympic team - began to wonder "are we going to stick this out for another 15 or 20 years?" They settled on an ESOP as the best option, with last wk's deal culminating a process that's been in the works for over 2 yrs. Forming an employee owned co was "as difficult and challenging as anything we've ever done," Eric said, "and I feel like we've done a lot." But "we believe it's the right thing for the brewery employees and the community."
A few months after filing for 2nd bankruptcy and closing its taproom until further notice, Easton, PA's Weyerbacher Brewing Co was acquired and will reopen under new ownership. Savant Beverages LLC, led by CEO Ed Lozano, closed the deal on Oct 3, Lehigh Valley Live reports. (Tho terms of the deal weren't disclosed, that's same day an order was entered dismissing the bankruptcy case in fed ct.) Lozano is former exec at Miller Brewing and PepsiCo, as well as former Prexy and CEO of Pittsburgh Brewing Co on opposite side of state. "He turned that brewery around," said Easton Mayor Sal Panto Jr, "so we're looking for exciting things there to get [Weyerbacher] back up and running full-speed again." Soft reopening is in the works with official ribbon cutting planned for Jan. Almost all members of brewery's production team and distribution staff are remaining on through the transition, said Lozano, who plans to oversee expansion of product portfolio.
New Labeling Rules Coming, TTB Reiterates; New Cost Analysis Required; Small Supplier Carve Out?
The TTB will begin 3 separate rulemaking processes related to alc bev labeling, the agency confirmed this mo. But it didn't make any promises about how long it'll be before that happens, let alone how long those processes might take. Still, advocates, industry members and the public will have multiple oppys to share with the feds their views about whether or not alcohol & nutritional content, allergens and ingredients should be required info on all alc bev labels.
After the rollercoaster ride that led to Maui Brewing acquiring Modern Times and forming Craft 'Ohana platform, Maui founder/CEO Garrett Marrero and co are "not ready" to add to its portfolio further at this point, he shared at Brewbound Live. And co's "not trying to make this a huge platform" or "looking to take over the world." But notably, since forming Craft 'Ohana, Garrett's "fielded countless phone calls" from some "very reputable brands we all know and love," in some cases "shocked" at the ones looking to sell, he shared. It's a "sign of where the industry is right now."
Craft beer is "weaker than expectations" this year as Q3 was "weaker than I predicted," Brewers Assn's Bart Watson shared at Brewbound Live in Santa Monica yesterday. Distributed craft collectively "lost its momentum" and "may not grow this year," he acknowledged, pointing to declines in tracked off-prem channels, slower recovery of draft disproportionately impacting craft, lower orders from distribs, and more. In fact, craft beer volume dipped below 2019 levels in Q2 and Q3 and losin' share in tracked IRI channels. While craft $$ still ahead of 2019 in IRI, "well I hope so" in this inflationary market, Bart exclaimed. In the short-term, distributed craft is "going to get worse," he predicted, as distribs and retailers likely to "cull further." Yet with all of the "emerging signs" of craft at distribution "struggling," Bart still expects BA craft volume to grow low-single-digits in 2022 vs mid-single-digit rate thru 1st half of 2022. Largely on the backs of brewery taproom growth.
PHOTO OP: Soccer Rowdiness, Deep Gossip, Bad Puns Were Focus of Bev Geeks' US/Iran Watch Party
About 20 bev people representing brands like Vita Coco, Essentia, Boylan's and Hoplark convened for World Cup watch party and emerging trends discussion yesterday afternoon at NY craft beer den George Keeley to cheer on nail-biting US win over Iran that moved team to Round of 16. The tenor of the "emerging trends discussion"? Gossip is more like it. And nearby fans eavesdropping on repartee would have overheard insider quips like "They better not bring in Kellyn Acosta - everybody knows Acosta can't execute" (hey, it's not required that you be fair or accurate in sports talk, and nobody from Acosta Sales & Marketing was there to defend agency). If US gets past Netherlands on Sat we hope to reconvene for the next one. We rate US odds about as good as those of a money-bleeding bevco pulling in 8X multiple in next capital round - slim, but not out of the question. 

