Beer Marketer's Insights
Ouch! After a couple mos of improved trends, domestic taxpaid shipments dropped 5.3%, -728K bbls in Oct, Beer Inst estimates. So shipments suffered as fall price increases kicked in, after retailers stocked up in Sep. Tho $$ trends lookin' much healthier in Oct, especially in tracked off-prem channels as avg price/case rose 7-8% in IRI and Nielsen data, including AB and MC prices rising above avg. Still, total domestic brewer shipments declined 4%, shed 5.8 mil bbls thru 10 mos. Down nearly 3% vs 2019 levels too. With imports comin' off huge growth in Sep and NBWA Beer Purchaser's Index indicating lower distrib orders in Nov (see below), total beer volume lookin' sluggish in 2022.
Apres protein shake brand that we were early to highlight closed its doors this past summer after finding it too challenging to raise next round of growth capital, we've just noticed. Birthed in SF and relocated to LA, the Tetra Pak line had launched as a DTC brand, then begun to make move into bricks & mortar as bottled line, but found the sledding too rough in seeking new financing. "About 60 days ago we had a new round of investment fall apart due to events largely outside our control," ceo Sonny McCracken told his followers in farewell note on Instagram about 4 months back. "We exhausted every option to find new capital and continue forward, but ultimately were not able to do so in time to keep the business going." Sonny, a former Boston Consulting Group exec who'd launched brand with health coach Darby Jackson but went on to run it on his own, said brand had sold millions of bottles to over 100K consumers and was on track to double or even triple the biz this year when it hit finan
It's a dispute that speaks to the foot soldiers of the bev biz, who perform the arduous task of opening the first accounts for an unproven new brand in hope they'll one day enjoy the rewards of a successful exit. In the case of Bai Brands, which exited spectacularly to Dr Pepper Snapple Group in 2017 to tune of $1.7 bil, 5 of its earliest employees have claimed that the half-a-point stakes each was promised were forgotten by Bai and its founder Ben Weiss, by acquirer DPS and by its successor co Keurig Dr Pepper. All have reached settlement by now but one: Robert Vitalis, who's been stuck for 5 years in discovery disputes trying to get his hands on needed documents and testimony as he pursues his claim in state court in NJ, where Bai was based as an indie co (BBI, Sep 16 2020). His half-pt stake in co, diluted thru subsequent capital raises on way to big exit, amounts to $1.3 mil.
Harsh market conditions have prompted bevcos like Chobani to pull back their plans to go public, at time quite a few that pulled trigger when window still was wide open may be regretting move. But Italy's Illycaffe continues to push forward with its own IPO plans, albeit on time frame that may extend as far as 2026, its ceo of past year, Cristina Scocchia, told Bloomberg. Scocchia, whose ascension early this year was widely interpreted as signaling such a move (BBI, Jan 3), indicated that plan hasn't changed since market turbulence arose, saying she has mandate to bring Trieste-based roaster to an IPO by 2026, likely on NY or Milan exchange. IPO effort is "moving ahead so we can hit the ground running," tho co won't force issues if conditions aren't right, she told wire service. Recall that Illy has famously held onto its independence for decades despite entreaties from strategics, finally selling 20% stake to Rhone Capital a few years ago and beginning to install more outsiders in top roles.
FDA is all about healthy debate. Including debate about what "healthy" means. So it's extending comment period over what foods & bevs can be claimed to be healthy by 50 days to Feb 16. Proposed rule is entitled Food Labeling: Nutrient Content Claims; Definition of Term 'Healthy' and appeared in Federal Register on Sep 29. Various stakeholders were quick to demand more time to ready their comments, which are to be submitted to Regulations.gov and identified with docket number FDA-2016-D-2335.
NYT Cannabis Update: Nearly Half of Americans in Legal States Support; Biden at Odds with Dems
Legalizing cannabis in new states doesn't turn heads quite the same way it used to as the US population becomes increasingly accepting of the concept and practice. But shifts in acceptance and legalization are increasingly significant, New York Times' "The Morning" update showcased. Following Maryland and Missouri passing legislation for recreational cannabis, "nearly half of Americans" will live in a state where recreational cannabis is legal, NYT pointed out, citing RAND Corp's Beau Kilmer. Ultimately this "could reduce hundreds of thousands of marijuana arrests made in the U.S. every year, freeing up police resources." Then too, about 68% of US adults support legalization, according to a recent Gallup survey. That's 3d year in a row Gallup tracked that level of support. Even includes a majority (51%) of Republicans now in favor, tho just 3 of 21 states that passed recreational cannabis laws typically vote Republican: Arkansas, Mont and Missouri. Yet there's still "political opposition" at the federal level, NYT highlighted. While President Biden pardoned thousands of people convicted of possession, he "opposes legalization, putting him at odds with more than 80% of self-identified Democrats." Tho some of the "political resistance is easing." Congress just passed bill that would allow for better research capabilities on cannabis, and Biden's expected to sign bill. Recall, FDA claims it's hobbled in assessing policy because so little research was possible in past.
Judge has greenlighted sale of Denver DSD house New Age to Global Sciences, per Wall St Jnl report we spotted on Market Watch. Judge Laurie Selber Silverstein in US Bankruptcy Court in Wilmington, Del, last said she would permit sale to cannabiz player Global's Legacy Distribution Group LLC unit for $4.5 mil. Based in Aurora, outside Denver, and incorporated as NABC Inc, New Age was sprung free amid wreckage of parent co's spiral into bankruptcy in Aug after betting big on multilevel marketing of supplements. Global Sciences sells CBD items under Aethics and other brands, but it's still tiny, with market cap under $3 mil. NewAge is in process of seeking buyer for its core MLM biz.
Riding second wind that's made brand a darling not just of youthful consumers but of housewives who shop at Ross chain, BLK water brand has embarked on major hiring spree on sales and marketing fronts as it motors toward hoped-for 150 DSD partners in coming 18 months. And in LA area, where it's erected self-distribution arm, it's ready to start onboarding outside brands, starting with AriZona Bevs, whose teas, juices and snacks will hop aboard BLK trucks in Jan.
Over 1/2 of Adults Trying to Drink Less, Small Study Shows; Growing NA Canned Cocktail Demand
Another recent study suggests a growing number of Americans are trying to reduce alcohol consumption, along with growing interest in NA options. Research comes from consumer insights platform Veylinx, which in Oct surveyed 418 US consumers (21+ yrs old), 48% male and 52% female, 69% of whom said they consume alcohol. Over half of those respondents (54%) said they're trying to drink less, 77% said they've abstained for a month or more and 34% said they've participated in Dry January. And among drinkers trying to reduce consumption, 52% claimed to be replacing alcohol with NA options, citing improved physical and mental health as primary reasons, according to a press release.
Thanksgiving Eve Less of a Blast This Year
On premise biz during Thanksgiving Eve, "what is traditionally one of the biggest party nights of the year," was down compared to huge gains in 2021, reported BeerBoard. Draft volumes fell 17.1% vs yr ago, when draft volume shot up 80% going against Covid restrictions. Even compared to a "regular" Wed the week before (Nov 16), BeerBoard found a 2.3% dip in draft volume on Nov 23. As for styles, "Light Lager continued to have a firm grip on the #1 position," followed by Lagers, IPAs, Belgian Wit/White Ales and Euro Ales. Seven of top-10 draft beers poured Thanksgiving Eve were from AB or Molson Coors. Top 10: Bud Light, Mich Ultra, Miller Lite, Modelo Especial, Coors Light, Dos Equis, Blue Moon, Yuengling, Stella and Bud.

