Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Its longtime "powerhouse flagship" firing on all cylinders and a long-awaited yr-round IPA likely to be its #2 brand in a hurry, Allagash has a lot to be thankful for these days. "We are growing" and "outpacing the category," sales and hospitality director Naomi Neville explained on press call this wk. Company-wide depletions grew 6% thru end of Oct, she shared, driven by continued health of lead brand White.

This week in 1993, INSIGHTS noted that now displaying alcohol content on labels was legal in US, after Coors argued for it for yrs. But there was an alc content war going on in Canada. After Labatt intro'd Maximum Ice, labeled with a 7.1% ABV, Molson responded with a 7.3% ABV Molson XXX. Prior to that, Molson was among co's and govt agencies criticizing Labatt for its Maximum Ice mktg. Gov't stepped in. Brewers were called to a meeting, but in the end, brewers "decided they could regulate themselves," reported media in Canada. A Labatt spokesperson added that co had no plans on changing its ad mktg strategy or labeling, noted INSIGHTS.

Legalizing cannabis in new states doesn't turn heads quite the same way it used to as US population becomes increasingly accepting of the concept and practice. But shifts in acceptance and legalization are increasingly significant, New York Times' "The Morning" update showcased. Following MD and MO passing legislation for recreational cannabis, "nearly half of Americans" will live in a state where recreational cannabis is legal, NYT pointed out, citing RAND Corp's Beau Kilmer. Ultimately this "could reduce hundreds of thousands of marijuana arrests made in the U.S. every year, freeing up police resources." Then too, about 68% of US adults support legalization, according to Gallup survey published last week. That's 3d year in a row Gallup tracked that level of support. Even includes a majority (51%) of Republicans now in favor, tho just 3 of 21 states that passed recreational cannabis laws typically vote Republican: AK, MT and MO. Yet there's still "political opposition" at the federal level, NYT highlighted. While President Biden pardoned thousands of people convicted of possession, he "opposes legalization, putting him at odds with more than 80 percent of self-identified Democrats." Tho some of the "political resistance is easing." Congress just passed bill that would allow for better research capabilities on cannabis, and Biden's expected to sign bill.

No surprise, Constellation is pushing back on WA court's decision to grant Olympic Eagle a TRO, filing a "motion for reconsideration" yesterday. Constellation again argues that while WA court "concluded" WA law "prohibits" alc bev suppliers from terminating distrib agreements without cause, "even if the parties' contract allows for it," this ruling was "incorrect." And the reliance on Stein vs Pabst case, in which the Judge ruled to forbid without cause terminations, is flawed, in Constellation's view. A distrib is "entitled to cure a deficiency that would otherwise lead to a for-cause termination, but is not entitled to enjoin a not-for-cause termination permitted by contract," wrote STZ. And since co's contract provides a without cause clause, in its view, STZ "respectfully requests that the Court reconsider its Orders."

Déjà vu, anyone? After averted rail strikes in Sep and subsequent tentative agreement, a lockout is once again looming. One of the country's largest railroad unions narrowly voted to reject the collective bargaining agreement brokered by the White House, "moving one step closer to a crippling freight rail strike that appeared averted two months ago," wrote USA Today. While 8 of 12 unions ratified the deal, all 12 must accept the proposed contract. And despite agreement previously "winning the endorsements of the unions' leaders, their members must vote to approve the deal for it to become final." Status quo contract is in place thru Dec 8 cooling-off period. But recall that Congress has the power to intervene and set a contract if no resolution is reached. A White House official noted that the "the best option is still for the parties to resolve this themselves," tho reiterated that a rail shutdown is "unacceptable."

New profit-sharing agreement between Coca-Cola and its US bottlers could allow those NA distribs to get a piece of the action as brands they helped build start to play in alc bev space. Agreements designed to side-step potential tension if Coke's brand partnerships in alcohol take off, Beverage Digest explained. Bottlers reportedly will get percent of profits from sale of bevs like Topo Chico hard seltzers, Simply Spiked, Fresca Mixed and coming Jack & Coke canned cocktails.

MC and Coca-Cola's Simply Spiked brand family continues to climb the ranks in scans. Simply now a top-50 beer brand family by $$ in IRI multi-outlet + convenience data thru 11/13, posting incremental $58.5 mil and 1.65 mil cases since its Jun launch. In each of the last 4 wks, Simply $$ sales are around same size as Jack Daniel's Country Cocktails, Firestone and Elysian, and consistently ahead MC's Vizzy hard seltzer, which declined 30+% for period. In fact, Simply Spiked Lemonade variety pk is MC's 10th largest brand in scans for 12-wks and nearly 2X the size of Vizzy variety pk. So two Coca-Cola brand fams are in the top-50 beer brands in IRI, including Topo Chico hard seltzer in top-30. Topo still about 2X larger than Simply in recent periods.

Columbia will acquire additional volume as Craig Stein Bev and Odom Corp merge (merger announced in Jul, expected to close in Jan). Columbia will reportedly get about a half mil cases of volume of 3 key suppliers from Craig Stein Bev in Vancouver: Mark Anthony, Deschutes and Sierra Nevada. Deal with Columbia on those brands also expected to close in early Jan. Columbia aligned with those suppliers in much of its 2-state footprint. In recent yrs, Columbia had plucked Boston, Diageo and Pabst brands from Craig Stein. In addition to those brands, Columbia will be acquiring San Juan Seltzer as well as regional craft pFriem from Odom/NW Bev in WA, totaling around 350K cases.

Something is happening here. Four more distrib deals hit in first half of Nov alone. That makes 16 distrib deals INSIGHTS reported on since Labor Day, totaling about 65 mil cases. An unprecedented level of activity. It started with a bang when Reyes Beer Division bought Nashville. That was beginning of a blitz of deals including 2 other big ones from Reyes Beer Division. RBD also bought Austin and Hawaii in quick succession. Those 3 deals alone near 35 mil cases. But lots of other action in both AB and MC systems.

Constellation remains the only big winner in tracked off-prem channels while AB and Heineken shed the most share thru 10 mos of 2022. Remarkably, Constellation's 1.6-pt share gain makes up for AB, Heineken, FIFCO, Boston Beer, Gambrinus, MC, Pabst and Sierra Nevada share losses combined in scans. STZ $$ sales were consistently ahead of MC's in recent periods until fall price increases kicked in, putting MC back ahead for latest 4 wks. Next largest share gainers are minimal in comparison, tho makin' strong strides in their own rights. Kirin-Lion (New Belgium & Bell's) snagged 0.15 pts to 1.2 total, Geloso +0.05 pts to 0.5 share, and Diageo Beer +0.05 pts to 1.7. Kirin-Lion and Geloso the only other top-15 suppliers besides STZ growing double-digits YTD.