CANarchy Craft Brewing Collective is adding to its consumer-facing brand image in mkt, launching new CANarchy IPA Mixed Pack that includes brands from brewers across its platform. This variety 12pk includes 12oz cans of flagship IPAs from Cigar City (Jai Alai), Deep Ellum (IPA) and Three Weavers (Expatriate) as well as Oskar Blues new Can-O-Bliss series IPA. Recall, Cigar City Jai Alai climbed to 20th best-selling craft brand nationally by $$ in IRI mutli-outlet + convenience data this yr and continues to grow strong double-digits as it expanded into several new mkts over the last few yrs. Yet Jai Alai continues to grow in home state FL too, solidifying spot as top-selling IPA and #2 craft brand in FL multi-outlet data, co shared. Then too, Deep Ellum IPA is top-selling IPA can in Dallas MULO and #2 best-selling can in TX. Three Weavers Expatriate IPA is growing 139% in CA MULO. And Can-O-Bliss IPA series is top-selling new IPA brand and #4 IPA brand overall in CO MULO, according to co.

Growing 4% in 2018, the economic impact of small and independent US craft brewers, as defined by the Brewers Assn, contributed $79.1 bil to US economy in 2018, org announced yesterday (this article also appeared in sibling pub INSIGHTS Express). That's equivalent of about 0.4% of total US GDP. BA's economic impact study based on surveys of members reporting revenue, employment and other metrics as well as annual production surveys. So growth in direct impact and total output unsurprisingly tracks to volume gains. Same goes for states that see most economic output in absolute terms. Impact of craft totaled whopping $9 bil CA in 2018, followed by $6.3 bil in PA (where both of 2 largest BA-defined craft brewers produce much of their volume and employ many), $5.1 bil in TX, $4.1 bil in NY and $3.6 bil in FL. But on a per capita basis, figures look a lot more like the BA's brewery per capita figures, with craft's most developed states largely taking over the top-5. Purely focused on the 21+ population, small and indie craft contributed $780 per capita in CO last yr for a total of $3.3 bil, just ahead of VT at $756/capita ($362 mil), OR at $674/capita ($2.1 bil), PA at $657/capita and ME at $631/capita ($656 mil).

Some 7 years since the last time it launched a brand new state, Great Lakes Brewing will head to Maryland early next mo, co announced this week. GLBC distributes to lots of adjacent mkts like DC, VA, WV, and PA. Recently, its distribution efforts have been focused on deepening its reach and filling in holes in existing states rather than opening new ones. To handle the MD market, GLBC chose Backup Beverage, a relatively young craft-focused distributorship founded in 2015 in Frederick, MD, according to its website. While Backup distributes a handful of notable regional craft players from the Mid-Atlantic — like Port City, Sly Fox or Neshaminy Creek — and from farther afield — Avery, Two Brothers, Epic — many of its brewery partners are relatively small cos from Maryland, Virginia and neighboring states. So Great Lakes immediately becomes the largest US craft brewer in Backup Bev's portfolio. The brewer will launch with its full slate of year-round beers and current seasonal offerings in package and on draft.

For all of craft’s dynamism, for the pushes and pulls, ups and downs, comings and goings underneath the surface, the segment’s off-premise trends look remarkably stable. Craft $$ sales grew between 2.7-2.8% for 4 wks, 13 wks, yr-to-date and 52-wks thru Sep 8 in additional IRI multi-outlet + convenience data provided by Bump Williams Consulting. In terms of volume, the segment grew 1.6-1.9% over same periods. All of this belies widely varying trends for brewers and brands. Styles too, natch. Off-premise style data requires a grain of salt since 1) it requires coding for style that may not always match a brewer’s understanding of style parameters, 2) some “styles” are really catch-all categories or package types, and 3) trends for some big styles are largely driven by one or two big brands. That said, many of craft’s “top” “styles” are driven less and less by big brands, with a couple of notable exceptions, our analysis of Bump’s IRI data suggests.  

Craft’s Largest Style Gets Biggest Growth and Fragments Further: IPA +13% to Near 40 Share  As far as IPA has come, it continues to fragment. Smaller brands keep gaining share of the style. All in, IPAs up about 13% by both $$ and vol in IRI MULC YTD thru 9/8, additional data cited by BWC shows. Gained 3.5 share of craft $$ to 38.5. Yet no single IPA brand dominates. That’s very different from the 9 next-largest craft styles tracked by IRI, in which the lead brand holds at least 10 share of the style and as much as 78 share. Even the top 2 IPAs together don’t have 10 share of IPA $$ in IRI off-premise data. The top-10 by $$ each between 2.1 and 5.1 share of IPA and collectively just 30 share of the style. Up 11% as a group yet still losing 0.5 share. 

All of top-4 IPAs growing so far this yr. Holding on to #1 by $$, Lagunitas IPA is up 1.3% YTD at just 5.1 share of IPA $$. At #1 by volume, Founders All Day up 7.8% to 4.2 share of $$. Then there’s Elysian Space Dust up 25% and Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing comin’ on quickly. It’s still more than doubling YTD, well past #5 IPA, Sierra Torpedo, and way more than offsetting Torpedo’s 5% decline. Bell’s Two Hearted at #6 and +1-2%; Goose IPA #7 by $$, dipping 6% still. In New Belgium’s Voodoo Ranger portfolio, imperial IPA (#8) up near 30% by $$ (passed flattish Lagunitas Little Sumpin’ Sumpin’) and regular IPA +6.5% to round out top-10. 

All other IPAs up 14%. That includes fast-growing #11, Cigar City Jai Alai, +44%, as well as softer Stone, Deschutes and SweetWater brands. Worth noting that growth in IPA also about as fragmented as the style as a whole. Combo of All Day, Space Dust, HLT, NBB IPAs and Jai Alai collectively up almost 30% and still less than 1/3 of IPA growth. So about 70% of IPA $$ and 2/3 of its off-premise $$ growth comin’ from a slew of craft brands individually no bigger than 0.9 share of the style and 0.35 share of craft. 

Seasonals Sliding Again, Big & Small; Variety Pack Trends Variable, Slow as a Whole  The craft seasonal picture in 2019 is very different from IPAs. Total craft seasonals down 12-13%, losing almost 2 share of the segment to about 11. Note tho that we’re just getting into The Season for craft seasonals (fall) and total seasonal trend about a half-pt better YTD thru Sep 8 than a month earlier. Still, top 10 seasonal brands almost 62 share of the “style,” collectively down almost 13%. All but 1 of ’em declined YTD (exception: Sam Adams, +1%). All Other seasonal brands collectively off around 10%. That’s by $$. Volume even softer. Leinie Shandy, regular Leinie, Lagunitas and secondary Sam Adams seasonals all off 10-20%. Sierra, Blue Moon and Shiner seasonals off even steeper. Any successes here in 1st 8+ mos of the yr clearly pretty small. 

Variety packs more of a mixed bag. (Box?) Down low singles as a “style” taken together. But unlike seasonals, picture changes if you pull out Blue Moon, Leinie and Shock Top options. Together, those 3 variety pks down over 30% by $$ YTD thru 9/8 in IRI MULC. Rest of variety pk universe up 1-2%. Bigger players all over the map, with Sam flattish, Sierra up low singles and New Belgium down 7-8%. Biggest gain in variety pks is Southern Tier, +25% (only 15-pk in the group). Biggest drop outside big brewery brands is SweetWater, -12%. 

Other cath-all “style,” fruit/veggie/spice beer doin’ much better, +9% by $$ YTD. MC’s got top-2 and Blue Moon Mango still got juice (+12%), but Leinie Grapefruit Shandy squeezed (-25%). Notably, it’s feast or famine with flavors: every top-10 brand in this “style” up or down double digits (or very close). Does that suggest somewhat cyclical nature of consumer interest in flavors? Altogether, top-10 infused/flavored brands basically flat. Smaller fruited, veggied and/or spiced craft brands collectively up 18%. 

Belgian White, Bock, Amber Ale Dominated by Big Brands; Pales Down Mid-Singles with Exceptions  Few top craft styles are more concentrated than Belgian White Ales. Blue Moon flagship alone is over 70% of the style, according to additional IRI MULC data from BWC. Shock Top flagship another 17 share of $$ YTD. Add in Leinie Sunset Wheat and you’re lookin’ at over 90% of the style, collectively down 5%. But other brands not much better, at least as a group, -3.6% by $$. That’s due to a fair few double-digit drops from the likes of Lost Coast Great White, Cigar City Florida Cracker, UFO (Harpoon), Dogfish Namaste, all in top-10. NBB’s Fat Tire Belgian White (#3) down 1-2% this yr too. But some very clear exceptions. Allagash White +32% by $$ (#4) in year it launched cans, Catawba White Zombie +26% and Avery White Rascal more than tripling. 

Bock is the other style dominated by a single brand. Shiner Bock at 78 share of bock $$. It’s down 3.6% this yr, but losing over 6 share of the style. Getting all of that and then some: Karbach Crawford Bock, clearly stealing a bit of Shiner Bock’s Texas thunder. It’s clear #2 bock in intro yr. Only 3 other bock brands have over 1 share of the segment: Abita Andygator (+11%) and Rogue Dead Guy ($$ down, cases up) at 5-6 share each and Troegs Troegenator (+4%) at 1.2 share of bock. That’s 97% of all bock sold in IRI. 

Another top craft style is also fairly concentrated, but to slightly lesser degree: top-10 amber ales over 80 share of the style. That’s led by original Fat Tire, natch, still over half the style but down 10% this yr. It’s setting the pace for all amber ales, -9% by $$ YTD. Other long-standing amber ales following in Fat Tire’s tracks: Alaskan (#2), Long Trail (#5), Bell’s (#7), Widmer (#8) and Full Sail (#9) entries all down high-singles or more this yr. But Kentucky Bourbon Ale now #3 amber and up near 15%, while Highland Gaelic Ale up 1% at #4. 

And in world of pale ales, Sierra flagship also points the way, but now has just over 1/3 of all pale ale $$ YTD. It’s down 6%. SweetWater 420 (#2) also -6%, less than a quarter the size. Top-10 pale ales collectively down 4%. All others -7%. But some notable exceptions: Dale’s Pale and Revolver Blood & Honey each up modestly; Lagunitas Little Sumpin’ Easy up 12% but more than offset by 12th of Never’s 20% decline; Deschutes Mirror Pond -24%; yet Switchback Ale +14%, Cigar City Guayabera +92%, Flying Dog Double Dog +21%. 

Bright Spot: Lighter Craft Styles Keep On Keepin’ On; Strong Brands and Big Debuts  Finish on a high note: lighter craft styles keep putting up very strong trends. Golden ales grew 9% and “other pale lagers” +17% at 4.1 and 3.1 share of craft $$, respectively. Golden ales led by Firestone Walker 805 and Kona Big Wave, each up 18-19% and together just over half of all golden ale $$ in IRI MULC YTD thru 9/8, data from BWC shows. But a bunch of fast growers in this style. And unlike most other top craft styles, big brands gaining share: top-15 golden ales +14% collectively, while all others -5%. 

Not so for other pale lagers, led by Sam 76, -19% YTD, and Kona Longboard, -0.5% by $$. And tho Great Lakes Dortmunder Gold, Long Trail Double Bag, Omission Lager and Deschutes Pacific Wonderland all struggling, the top-15 other pale lagers includes 4 brand new craft brands: Sierraveza at 3.5 share of the style out the gate; Stone Tropic of Thunder at 1.8 share; Ballast Point Lager and Saint Archer Gold each at 1.1 share of the style YTD. Then too, Rhinegeist Cheetah almost all incremental at #12, plus Karbach Love St #3 brand here +10%, 10 Barrel Pub Lager #6 up 164%, ’Gansett Lager #7 up 23% and Hardywood Park Richmond Lager #14, up 49%. All other pale lagers below top-15 collectively up 20% YTD.

Don't look now, but lots more brewers are seizing perceived on-premise opportunities, opening on-site and off-site taprooms, brewpubs and restaurants, some long-awaited, others just-announced. That includes NorCal location #7 for Fieldwork Brewing as it expects to open a taproom in Corte Madera in Marin County early next yr, it announced this wk. Recall, co has expanded quickly since opening in Berkeley in 2015 (see May 14 issue). The coming Marin County spot will include a small brewing system and co hopes to open 2 more locations in 2021, co-founder Barry Braden told the Marin Independent Journal. Also in the Bay Area, fast-moving Fort Point Beer Co will open its own standalone beer hall/taproom on Valencia St in hometown San Francisco early next mo, it announced. The 3,000 sq-ft space won't include on-site brewing but will include food service, per Eater SF report.

It's another busy week for brewery closings. MA's Somerville Brewing, maker of Slumbrew Craft Ales, filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy on Sep 27, "necessitated due to cash flow shortages largely as a result of the significant expenditures" and "related debt" for building an additional full-service restaurant at Assembly Row location, per court filings. "Numerous efforts to refinance the debt…were unsuccessful." Co plans to keep operating both locations as it reorganizes, according to Patch. Yet an "emergency" preliminary hearing requested for tomorrow, Oct 2, "in order to be able to pay for the inventory and materials which are ordered and needed for the operation of the business." Somerville Brewing owes $1.23 mil to secured creditors and more to several unsecured creditors listed. Co has just $33,482 cash on hand and $4K in accounts receivable, and values its physical assets (i.e. brewing locations, equipment, offices, furniture, and inventory) at total of $640K, and intangible assets at $1.4 mil, per filing. It sold an estimated 2,750 bbls in 2018 according to Brewers Assn.

A couple yrs after acquiring SC's Palmetto Brewing, NC's Catawba will temporarily shift Palmetto production to NC while it brings $500K worth of new equipment on line for slew of "better-for-you" brews, The Post and Courier reported. That'll include (you guessed it) hard seltzer among other bevs. "As we've seen those things catch fire, we've seen our sales change," CEO Billy Pyatt told paper, adding "we're not stupid." In the process of temporarily shutting down SC production, co laid off 4 production workers at the Palmetto facility, as this project expected to take anywhere from 4-6 mos, ready by end of Q1 2020, Billy noted. Recall, Catawba invested $1 mil in capacity expansion at its NC facility following the deal to acquire Palmetto, so it has extra space currently as volume remained flattish in 2018. But plan is to move production back to SC asap; "South Carolina is an important market for us, but it's also a key part of our strategy to make beverages down there," Billy assured. And production workers who lost their jobs will be given a "perfectly fair opportunity" to regain their positions once SC's back up and running. In meantime, the Palmetto taproom remains open and one of the four workers who lost their production job was immediately rehired at the taproom.

Avery Brewing is rolling out new low-cal hazy Pacer IPA after testing thruout this year as part of its newfound focus on lower calorie, lower carb "functional category" of brews it's calling the "Avery 100s," co announced. Pacer IPA is 100 calories, 3.5 carbs and 4.5% ABV, designed by founder Adam Avery to be "a real IPA that worked with my real, everyday lifestyle," he sez in released statement. Co's been developing Pacer since Jan, tweaking recipes and testing batches at their taproom under "Slim Hazy IPA" name, Adam shared with CBN. A batch of the finalized Pacer recipe went into the tank late last week and co will have an official launch party on Oct 18. Another newer brew, Rocky Mountain Rosé, is a beer/wine hybrid that clocks in at 4% ABV and 100 calories. And co is in the process of reformulating El Gose from 130 cals to 100 to join the club. Avery will launch a mixed 12pk with Pacer IPA, Rocky Mtn Rosé and El Gose to further highlight the Avery 100s. And last but not least, Avery will add to the hard seltzer craze with new Sparkle hard seltzer, planning to launch by mid-Dec. While Avery "not the first to do low calorie craft brews by any means," Adam and co are making it a focal point going forward, putting out "a nice range of flavors" and styles beyond light lager that "translate the best" to lower cals.