Digging in deeper, the trove of data on craft IPAs feels a bit like a bottomless pit, as consultant Bump Wiliams demonstrated in latest client letter sent this morn. Consider: IRI tracks 3,300 craft IPAs in its broad multi-outlet + convenience universe, representing almost 5 share of total beer $$ (and near 40 share of craft, as we wrote last issue). That's up from just 1,600 IPAs back in 2015, Bump points out, when IPA took over top craft style by off-premise $$ at just under a quarter of the segment. Meanwhile that 3,300 doesn't include the enormous number of IPAs that never hit off-premise shelves, as Bump acknowledges. Is the total number of IPAs sold somehow by US craft brewers this yr 3, 4, 5X that? 10X?

NY wholesaler SKI Beverage continues to build out DSD network for its own Ralph & Charlie's juice line. Latest aboard: F&F Distributor in New London, Conn, sales chief Paul Catalano tells us . . . Alc-alternative brand Mingle Mocktails has entered Total Wine & More chain, including all its stores in Ariz, Fla and Minn, in 6-pks of 750-ml bottles at $63.95 and 6-pks of 12-oz slim cans at $12.99. Founder Laura Taylor called move "a personal milestone for Mingle: it's been our mission since day one to be on-shelves because they've led the charge in having a dedicated non-alcoholic section" . . . Cold-brew house Rise Brewing said its Barista Oat Milk has been picked up nationally by Whole Foods as off-cycle addition, cofounder/ceo Grant Gyesky told us. Move comes a coupla months after entry went national at Sprouts chain.

Trio of topics received "increased focus" for "interagency cooperation" in Competition Report published early this year, including "anticompetitive conduct," M&A and "greater transparency" (including in alc bev labeling), atty Alva Mather commented yesterday during webinar hosted by her firm McDermott Will & Emery. Tho alc bevs were her focus in talk, some of issues impinge on NAs and other food/bev trade classes too. In the 9 mos since publication, FTC has "started investigations in our space," she confirmed, "specifically on anticompetitive conduct." The "renewed investigations" in these areas that she and others have seen suggest the agency is "looking at particularly the distributor tier," she said. Recall, when competition concerns arise in alc bevs (for instance in review of proposed M&A), DOJ generally handles beer while FTC handles wine & spirits, as our sibling newsletter Insights Express reminded.

Beyond-beer again loomed large at last month's annual convention of Natl Beer Wholesalers' Assn in Chicago, as distributors look to hedge their bets on beer so as not to let emerging trends and consumption occasions go untapped. That was clear both in conference content, including panel honcho'd by BBI editor at request of NBWA, which is urging its members to think outside the barrel, and on show floor where array of non-alc beers, canned cocktails and alc extensions of familiar NA brands jostled for distribs' attention. NBWA event was among 4 shows in 4 cities we did over span of 2 weeks, amid relentless flow of breaking news, which is why we're only just getting to it now.

New Belgium needed to bounce back, recover from a double-digit decline in 2018. So, “seeing a strong turnaround” so far this yr, it kept the same 3 priorities it had for 2019 when planning for 2020, marketing veep Shaun Belongie explained to Craft Brew News. First, “accelerate” Voodoo Ranger, its hop-forward portfolio, and make sure it continues to be a growth engine. Second, “stabilize” Fat Tire by, in some ways, going back to the basics. And third, let its agua fresca-inspired Mural brand live up to its potential as a recruitment vehicle into craft. 

That turnaround Shaun mentioned shows up in off-premise trends: total NBB biz up 1.9% by volume in Nielsen all outlet + convenience and liquor, with dollars +5.3%, Shaun shared. Note that’s not quite as strong as Nielsen trends we’ve reported throughout 2019, which do not include liquor stores. And that difference, of course, is due to major change in NBB’s home state of Colorado. On Jan 1, grocery and c-stores there started selling stronger beer (over 3.2% alc by weight), recall. So NBB flying in Colo chains, but its indie off-premise biz (largely liquor) is off by over 20%, communications/PR director Leah Pilcer shared with CBN. That’s true of many in- and out-of-state brewers in craft and broader beer biz (see below). Yet NBB’s total off-premise depletions in Colo are up about 10% yr-to-date thru Sep, showing “some normalization” from bigger load-in numbers early in the yr. So a solid bump still. “While we are ecstatic about being able to extend our chain relationships into our own backyard,” Leah explained, “it should be noted that we still recognize and appreciate the importance of those independent outlets that played a pivotal role in helping New Belgium get off the ground nearly 30 years ago.” In fact, indie stores still about 2/3 of NBB’s home-state biz, she noted. 

New-News for Voodoos: Variety Pk & 5% American Haze Aimed to Build on Rotator, Imperial  Just the 3 largest Voodoo Ranger brands make up around 40% of NBB’s national off-premise biz so far this yr, we estimate based on a number of recent reports. Fat Tire is only about 30% these days, including Belgian White. Recall, behind very strong growth of its Imperial IPA and solid gains for base Voodoo Ranger, NBB has #2 juicy/hazy IPA in scans, +28% in IRI multi-outlet + convenience YTD thru 9/22, Bump Williams Consulting showed in latest client letter (see last issue). Behind that, Voodoo Rotator SKU, new this yr, is actually #2 growth engine for total NBB, Shaun told us. The “number-one contributor by far” is Imperial, he said, +71% in Nielsen all outlet + convenience and liquor YTD. So co very encouraged that Imperial remains a “juggernaut,” Rotator looks like it’ll “pretty handily end up as the year’s biggest craft beer launch” and Juicy Haze is having “a pretty good year-two,” bucking the very common sophomore-slump pattern. 

New Belgium wants to fuel its hoppy fire. Next yr, it’s bringing to market 2 new items under Voodoo Ranger portfolio. One is a Voodoo Ranger variety pk, Shaun shared, “a request” for some time. Since “IPA drinkers are always looking for ‘new,’” he acknowledged, co putting 2 special items into the 12-pk of cans. That includes an “experimental IPA,” unique to the pack and playground for brewers. Then beers that appeared as part of the Voodoo Rotator series will make a “comeback” in the pack, Shaun said. First up will be Liquid Paradise IPA, which appeared as Rotator earlier in 2019. The 2nd Voodoo Ranger launch is a 5% hazy IPA called American Haze, available in 6pk can and draft. It bridges interest in more sessionable, lower ABV options and attraction to juicy/hazy as a “much more approachable style IPA,” Shaun explained. 

Adding Flavors and Variety Pk, Shifting Mural to Slim Cans to Compete with Seltzers  What New Belgium calls its “agua fresca cerveza,” Mural, a collab project with Mexican craft brewery Primus, has been a relatively small success in its 1st full yr. But co has high hopes for where it can go in 2020 after making some serious changes to how it positions the brand. It’s all about “recruiting people to the craft category,” Shaun told CBN. The co’s heard over and over from folks who try Mural: “wait a second, this is beer?” And over and over, NBB repeats “yes, this is beer,” Shaun said. So it’s a new version of a classic craft move, convincing folks who “don’t drink any beer” and think they don’t like beer that they can like and drink it. But seeing “this blurring” in the marketplace of beyond beer bevs, seltzers and spritzers and so forth, NBB wants distribs and retailers to move Mural out of craft and stock it with those other bevs on retail shelves, Shaun explained. While only 20% of Mural placements this yr have been with FMBs and seltzers, the brand’s performance is twice as strong “where we have those sets,” he said. 

Next yr, co will optimize Mural’s ability to perform in those sets. It switches to slim 12oz cans, gets calorie/sugar count callout and a variety pk. All classic seltzer plays. Co realized it needs to erase misconception that “agua fresca” equals juice-like high sugar content. Redesigned package emphasizes that a 12oz can just 110 calories and 0.1 grams of sugar. Finally, mango orange and guava berry flavors join original watermelon lime for a variety 12-pk, Shaun shared. 

Fat Tire Velocity Improving, “Rebuilding Its Roots”  Stabilizing flagship Fat Tire is “in some ways a bigger challenge” than accelerating the co’s hop-forward brands, Shaun acknowledged. The brand’s “struggled for a number of years” and seen notable declines in distribution. But Fat Tire velocity improved this yr, he reported, and even got back to flat in recent 4-wk periods. Work on the brand is focused on its “core roots in the mountain outdoor community” and getting back to basic “New Belgium story,” as Shaun called it, or “proving that business can be a force for good.” Short film series launched earlier this yr, focused on “finding common ground” among different groups of “outdoor enthusiasts,” raised about $200K for 6 different non-profits, while “advocates program” of well-connected outdoor sport insiders “opens a lot of doors for us.” 

NBB learned that it’s “that kind of activity that we really need to rebuild,” Shaun shared. For a time, NBB “lost track of that along the way” as it tried “to become more of a macro brand, a mass brand” with its marketing. Now it’s “rebuilding its roots in those spaces,” focused on digital and social marketing rather than big ticket ad channels. And due to growth there, “we find that we’re kind of getting to where we want to get to in reach and frequency, even though we’re not in the big mass media vehicles,” Shaun explained. 

Regional Lagers, Specialty Portfolio Notes  Around that time of trying to act a bit more “macro,” the co launched a number of products that are still around but are much smaller than initial rollouts. While “they’re declining,” overall, brands like Citradelic “continue to do well in enough places that it makes sense to keep the brand going,” even without support. So those brands can become more geographically focused. Similarly, craft lagers seem to be “hard to launch nationally,” Shaun observed, and “may make more sense at a regional level.” NBB’s “regional bets” here are Mountain Time Lager in CO home and Old Tuffy brand (partnered with NC State) in NC. Notably, the latter is blowing away projections, Shaun shared, already shipping in neighborhood of 40K cases since Aug launch after “targeting” just 50K for 5 mos of 2019. Then too, co’s collab with Knob Creek, Oakspire, just came back for 2nd yr. And NBB will bring a new specialty Sour IPA in 6-pk cans, a “wood sour” (not the quicker kettle sour more common in craft these days), something “only New Belgium can offer at scale,” co touted in presentation to distribs.

Following the formation of Oh Hi Beverages and launch of THC-infused seltzer line by co-owner of Ska Brewing, Matt Vincent, and local CO cannabis co Durango Organics, Oh Hi will add new CBD seltzer starting this Nov, reported Colorado Sun. Recall, Left Hand also formed JV with WAAYB Organics to launch CBD-infused sparkling water called Present (see Aug 1 issue). And reportedly, Dad & Dudes Breweria (acquired by Cannabiniers) is currently making CBD-infused non-alc versions of its George Washington's Secret Stash beer, according to paper. Notably, while Oh Hi's THC bevs are made at Durango Organics cannabis facility, the CBD version will be made at Ska Brewing facility, sez paper. And plan is to sell CBD seltzers in "natural food shops, grocery stores and even bars and restaurants" thruout CO. Meanwhile, Oh Hi THC bevs, or "weed claws" as Ska's Matt refers to 'em, are currently available in 100 dispensaries across the state, up from just 18 stores in late Apr.

Left Hand will launch unique Nitro Mixed 8-pk including 3 core brands, flagship Milk Nitro Stout, Flamingo Dreams Nitro blonde and Sawtooth Nitro, along with one rotating seasonal, co announced. First seasonal will be Chai Milk Stout Nitro, which will also get its own 4pk. And Sawtooth Nitro will be sold separately in 6pks as well. Indeed, while nitro beers remain a niche category overall, and growth is harder to come by, Left Hand aims to lean into what's become its core identity over the years. "Nitro is part of who we are, and we're driven to continue to be the innovators and leaders of the style," stated director of mktg Jill Preston in release. "These mixed 8 Packs are truly unique and provide more opportunity for us to showcase our Nitro creativity as we regularly change up the seasonal included," she added.

Brewers Assn economist Bart Watson is the latest to play the industry-wide guessing game: where are hard seltzers sourcing their enormous growth from? In his latest blog post, Bart makes the case that less than 1/3 of hard seltzer volume is coming from beer and could be sourcing as little as ~2% of its growth from craft beer, looking at natl IRI data for 52 wks thru Jul 14 to guide his all channel analysis. "The rest is either coming from getting new drinkers into beverage alcohol, or from increased purchases that are incremental to existing off-premise purchases," he sez. While even 2% of craft can still slightly alter craft segment's trend overall, it would only be by a couple tenths of a %. And while a Nielsen consumer survey was conducted before hard seltzer sales exploded this summer, Bart remains encouraged that there was "low level" of interaction between craft drinkers and seltzer drinkers.