Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Since last catching up with Night Shift as co was announcing its big new Philly project (see Aug 28 issue), co officially launched new hard seltzer brand, Hoot, and continues to look for ways to diversify portfolio outside of traditional craft beer arenas. Hoot can potentially reach "Nite Lite-level" of volume, CEO and co-founder Rob Burns shared with CBN. Recall, Nite Lite and Lime Lite expected to reach 10K bbls collectively this yr. It's being contract brewed at Isle Brewers Guild in RI and will be packaged in 16oz cans for starters before eventually transitioning to standard 12oz cans.

Jack's Abby is flattish this yr, expecting to finish in the very high 40K bbl range, co-founder and CEO Sam Hendler shared with CBN. This yr's goal was to "clean up" the portfolio, including cutting near 30% of SKUs, while co "really focused in on core brands." No "major" new brand launches this yr and "betting pretty big on things that didn't pan out fully" made overall growth tuffer to come by in 2019. But co's feeling "really good going forward" after another strong outing for Copper Legend [check seasonal], and core brands are growing, including House Lager up high-single-digits with a chance to accelerate to +10% by year end.

Tree House Brewing continues to operate in its own world. After more than doubling its volume to 44,500 bbls in 2018, co expects to reach 60K bbls of production, according to Edible Boston blog post highlighting the brewery's growth and remarkable fandom. Vast majority of Tree House beers are still sold on site to the nearly 500K visitors it gets per year. Even on a regular weekday, people continually flock to the brewery to stock up on cases of Tree House beers by noon, lining up and patiently waiting to get theirs. While plenty of brewers generate lines for special releases, there is nothing like Tree House phenomenon anywhere else in the world, period. The Charlton brewery campus sits on 75 acres with an arched gate at the entrance followed by a winding dirt road toward the brewery, resembling something closer to Sierra Nevada Mills River brewery than a regional brewing co opened within the last decade. And Tree House continues to expand, including 77K sq-ft warehouse space on site and farm land purchased earlier this yr in nearby Woodstock, CT for Tree House Orchard and Farm Fermentory. Tree House will add to the list of local hard cider competitors soon enough (and co also roasts its own coffee). "I think to get to where we are now as quickly as we have, we've had a wild ambition and a work ethic that would make some people nauseous," co-founder Nate Lanier told Edible Boston. Tree House has been in constant state of motion to better accommodate visitors, adding capacity, offerings and on-site amenities. Even if there were some kind of slowdown in traffic and/or decline, Tree House would likely still be highly profitable.

Harpoon/Mass Bay Brewing has transformed into a portfolio company in recent yrs, finding pockets of success both in segments beyond beer as well as within beer innovation and M&A. Co essentially went from 1 brand family to 5 brand families over the course of the last 5 yrs, CEO and co-founder Dan Kenary explained to CBN upon visit to Boston Seaport HQ. Harpoon, UFO series, Clown Shoes, Arctic Summer hard seltzer and recently rebranded City Roots hard cider each have their own distinct "identities," Dan emphasized, a key theme for Mass Bay Brewing going forward. Its volume has taken a hit since conducting the ESOP in 2014, slipping from 209K bbls in 2014 to 185K bbls in 2018. But trend began to stabilize these past 2 yrs, with shipments "slightly ahead" for 9 mos in 2019, Dan shared. Arctic Summer hard seltzer's shot in the arm turned trend from minus to plus so far. And with full plate of new brands and plans across its 5 brand families, "we are very optimistic about the path forward in 2020."

MA's beer scene has transformed in the past decade as a couple hundred new breweries opened and several regional brewers emerged. In fact, MA is just the 5th state to have 10 or more regional brewers (15K bbls or more) along with CA, CO, OR, and PA. Brewers range from massive Boston Beer on its way toward 5 mil bbls (total volume) in 2019, to Harpoon/Mass Bay still among top-20 craft brewers, handful of brewers between 30-60K bbls, including some sizable expansion plans in the works (i.e. Night Shift and Lord Hobo) and several others rising in ranks. But competition is heating up like never before. Just as shelf and tap space is more crowded than ever, taproom growth is harder to come by these days too. That's making it tuffer for smaller cos to depend on more taproom-centric biz models. And some brewers that were growing solidly have seen their trends turn. This is not unique to MA. But as stalwart Boston Beer has successfully navigated these testy waters with the help of hard tea, cider and seltzer over the years, Mass Bay and slew of sizable MA craft cos are seemingly taking pages straight out of Boston Beer's playbook. Each seek ways to diversify portfolio and/or branch out of craft beer's box. This makes for a particularly competitive moment in MA. While these brewers are branching out in their own distinct ways, one common thread is that shots are being fired in the general direction of Boston Beer (and Harpoon). Some indirectly and others more overt. Yet Boston continues to grow all the same, as do many of the upcoming regional MA brewers.

Boston accelerated depletions gain in Q3, plus first-time addition of Dogfish Head beer volume tacked extra points on to growth rate. Core biz depletions +24%, shipments +14% in Q3. (Remember Boston shipped ahead of depletions in 1st half.) With addition of Dogfish Head, depletions +30% and shipments +19%. For 9 mos, core depletions/shipments +19%, with Dogfish adding a coupla pts yr-to-date. Truly up triple digits, Twisted Tea up double digits, Sam Adams/Angry Orchard trended down. Dogfish Head added approx 70K bbls to Q3 and 9 mos. Boston Beer up 717K bbls for 9 mos and over 4 mil bbls.

Coupla updates from the world of continuing intersection between cannabevs and craft beer cos. Tanisha Robinson, former chief disruption officer of BrewDog, former CEO of BrewDog USA and a "prolific entrepreneur," is prepping a new CBD flavored sparkling water called W*nder, per The Columbus Dispatch. "I see CBD as something similar to where craft beer was 30 years ago in the US," said Tanisha, who's building up her newest biz in Columbus, Ohio. "We're just at the very early stages, so there's a huge opportunity to be one of the first brands on the market." Her former bosses, BrewDog founders James Watt and Martin Dickie, are early investors and have confidence Tanisha can build a successful brand. Gotta note, Tanisha only spent 5 mos in her role as "chief disruption officer" before leaving to start W*nder in July, per LinkedIn. So BrewDog co-founders seemingly found a way to invest in the CBD space without tying it to BrewDog org. "Tanisha did a great job building BrewDog in America, and we're eager to see that she will do with W*nder in such an exciting space," said Martin, per release on launch.

While AB had tuff Q3 in US with shipments down 3%, STRs down 3.5%, its regional craft portfolio continued to grow solid "double digits" in Q3, "gaining share within the craft segment," co highlighted in its Q3 results last week. Indeed, craft remains a consistent bright spot within AB's US biz, tho still represents less than 3% of AB total $$ and under 2% of total volume in natl IRI data.

As Boston Beer leans into Truly hard seltzer oppys, co laid out more measured outlook for its craft beer portfolio in 2020 during Q3 conference call. Boston has "a lot of ambition for Dogfish next year," coupled with another year of expected Sam Adams declines, CEO Dave Burwick shared. On top of Dogfish distribution oppys with "#1 ranked sales" team, Dogfish will receive 7-8X increase in brand support in 2020 vs where it was before joining Boston. Since the deal closed, Dogfish sales accelerated to $$ up 10%, volume +16% for 12 wks thru Sep 8 in IRI foodstores. But co still needs to "re-tool" and "re-think" how to "get stronger" with Sam Adams (and Angry Orchard), said Dave. That's "factored into the guidance" and co "not putting undue pressure on what [Sam Adams and Angry Orchard] can do" next yr.

Tho most of Bump Williams Consulting’s monthly update letter further highlights hard seltzers’ continued rise, there are at least a couple craft nuggets to extract.  Sierra Nevada Hazy Little Thing IPA is keeping up triple-digit growth pace to close out the yr, making it #20 $$ growth brand among all beer brands and the only craft brand among top-25 beer $$ growth brands in scans this yr, BWC shows. Sierra Hazy $$ grew 119%, $22 mil to $40.6 mil YTD thru Oct 20 in IRI multi-outlet + convenience data. Slightly ahead of MC’s Cape Line (incremental $21.4 mil) and slightly behind Twisted Tea Original (up 15%, $23.8 mil). Hazy Little Thing distribution is gaining ground too, up 7 pts to 42.2% category weighted distribution (CWD) YTD in IRI, per Bump. So velocity accelerating as well, up 69% vs last yr. Hazy Little Thing $$ sales and volume officially surpassed Torpedo IPA sales in IRI MULC this yr, making it Sierra Nevada’s #2 brand in scans. And recall, co has ambitious goal to make it #1 IPA sold in the country. Gotta note, this is the first time in the last 3 yrs that Founders All Day IPA and Elysian Space Dust (or Goose IPA) aren’t among top-25 growth brands (in dataset we see). Tho Founders All Day $$ still up 7.5% and Elysian Space Dust IPA up 24.5% YTD thru Oct 6 in IRI MULC.  

1/3 of Hard Seltzer Drinkers Overlap with Craft; “Highest Overlap” with Spirits Drinkers Then too, 33% of hard seltzer consumers are drinking hard seltzer either “instead of” or “in addition to” craft beer, according to natl survey BWC conducted in partnership with Perksy. But “the highest overlap” was among liquor drinkers, with 54% of respondents “either substituting OR complimenting their Liquor occasions with Hard Seltzers,” Bump pointed out. Notably, “Domestic Light Beer” drinkers had 2nd highest overlap (43%) with hard seltzer, ahead of Wine (38%), Imported Beer (36%), craft, hard cider (31%) and other FMBs (28%).