Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Another round of craft brewers launching hard seltzers made newswires lately ranging from established top-30 craft co to microbreweries in different regions. Alaskan Brewing is launching Alaskan Hard Seltzer, co announced and Juneau Empire reported. While several cos more often opt to create new brand lines for their hard seltzers and other bevs, Alaskan will leverage brand/state name. It offers Spruce Lemon-Lime and Spruce Cherry Grapefruit variants, with 4.5% ABV, 2g carbs and 95 calories, per co's website. Also gotta note, part one of co's 3-part mission statement on its website now reads: "To produce internationally recognized quality craft beverages," (our emphasis) tho unclear how recent that verbiage shift was made.

Even tho seasonal portfolios are generally struggling among top craft brewers, there are some seasonal brands that still generate significant buzz and sales each yr. Great Lakes Christmas Ale certainly falls into that category. Co brewed 25K bbls total of Christmas Ale since late July, expecting to "sell out in 6 weeks," recently hired CEO Mark King shared with CBN. Its "first pour" of Christmas Ale last Thursday "broke records as the biggest" it's had in 27 yrs, with folks lining up from 7AM to 9PM. Co poured 35 bbls in 12 hrs, hosting 3,712 customers. Gotta note, Great Lakes Seasonals are collectively down 16% by $$, volume down 20% YTD thru Oct 6 in IRI MULC per data provided by Bump Williams Consulting. So its seasonals are in tuff spot again this yr leading into annual Xmas ale release.

Founders' growth slowed considerably so far this yr, especially in its home state of Michigan, off-premise data shows. Then, leaked excerpt of deposition in racial discrimination lawsuit co faced since last fall turned into media firestorm over just last 2 wks. That lawsuit now officially in rear-view mirror as co settled with ex-employee Tracy Evans, plaintiff in that suit, yesterday. Parties released joint statement Thursday afternoon in midst of mounting pressure from critical headlines, backlash from some retailers and negative social media attention (see Oct 22 and 25 issues from last wk). Founders Diversity & Inclusion Director Graci Harkema resigned last Friday night via searing letter, highly critical of the co's leadership and its handling of that leaked testimony. Local press and especially Detroit Free Press continued to hold Founders' feet to the fire with multiple articles this week piling on to last week's coverage. Story splashed across pages of more national or farther flung news outlets too, sometimes citing local bars or bottle shops that promised to stop serving the brewer's beer. Enough was enough.

Not much Dogfish Head volume moved into Boston Beer distrib network so far. But Cavalier had Dogfish statewide in OH and recently sold to Boston network in state, reportedly over 100,000 cases. Superior did initial deal; other distribs include Heidelberg and several more. Recall that almost half of Dogfish Head volume, around 2 mil cases, not in Boston Beer network and Boston aimed to move "quickly," as chairman Jim Koch told CBN in early Jul. Several mos later, in many areas, discussions dragged past deadlines, as valuations disagreed about, and legal letters sent. But OH is 1 top 10 state where deal did happen several weeks ago. Lotsa other talks elsewhere. (This article also appeared in sibling pub INSIGHTS Express.)

Ranging from total segment trends and pricing, to new views of recently acquired brands, plus latest fluctuations and standouts among top craft cos and brands, here are 10 takeaways from latest national IRI data thru Oct 6:

  • Craft segment up 5% without Blue Moon, Leinenkugel and Shock Top. Blue Moon (-1%), Leinenkugel (-16%) and Shock Top (-29%) declines continue to drag total segment by more than 2 pts for 12 wks and YTD. Without those brand families, craft $$ and volume up 5% for 12 wks and YTD, tho slowed to +3% for latest 4 wks.
     
  • Craft pricing is flattish for 4 wks in grocery channel. IRI craft’s avg price per case is off by a penny to $37.06/case for latest 4 wks in grocery channel. Avg price is up $0.28/case to $36.96 YTD in grocery. And price still up nearly 1%, $0.37/case to $37.82 YTD in IRI MULC. But craft’s pricing gains continue to dwindle vs prior yrs.  And pricing is up even less w/o Blue Moon, Leinie and Shock Top.
     
  • Lagunitas IPA continues to improve; all c-stores (for now); IPA Can Shopping Network Shop. Lagunitas IPA $$ and volume up 6% for both 4 and 12 wks. But that’s all from c-store channel growth, where IPA is up 26-27% for period. Grocery sales are improving with new IPA 12pk cans launch, but still down in latest periods. Better flagship trends helped boost total Lagunitas sales up 3% for 12 wks; $$ up 2%, volume up 1% YTD. Lagunitas also just launched “IPA Can Shopping Network Shop” along with new series of goofy promotional YouTube videos with brewmaster Jeremy Marshall featuring new Lagunitas IPA 12oz cans.
     
  • AB’s Platform is declining for latest 12 wks. After announcing the deal in early Aug, Platform is now included under AB’s umbrella in IRI data. Notably, sales are declining for latest 12 wks – $$ down 1%, volume down 3%. Platform $$ up 3%, volume flat YTD thru Oct 6. Avg prices are up $1.42/case to $43.03 for the year. Recall, ~90% of Platform’s sales are in OH – it initially self-distributed, though has transitioned into AB’s network since the deal. Indeed, integration into AB takes time and there may even be an element of local blowback from consumers/retailers in the mix, as has been case for some of past acquisitions. But in virtually every case so far, when AB is able to turn on the jets in chains for its acquired craft brands, sales take off (at least initially). Stay tuned.
     
  • Dogfish accelerated in grocery channel since Boston deal closed. Even with lots of potential distrib consolidation in flux, Dogfish Head has kept up low-double-digit growth in scans since deal with Boston Beer officially went into effect in early July. Its $$ sales grew 11%, volume up 15.5% for 12 wks thru Oct 6 in IRI grocery channel. Tho avg prices continued to dip during period, down $2.08/case to $48.05.
     
  • Stone continues to decline at an accelerated rate in scans. Stone $$ sales were down 13%, volume down 14% for 12 wks thru Oct 6 in IRI MULC. Now Stone is down 6% yr-to-date. About half of its total decline for the year is flagship Stone IPA, down 9-10%. But even as Stone IPA decline steepened in latest periods, it’s only 1/4 of total decline for 4 wks, suggesting tuffer drops among other key brands within portfolio as well, not fully offset by newer entries.
     
  • Sierra Nevada and New Belgium strong Q3s; better in scans. Sierra Nevada $$ grew 7% and New Belgium $$ grew 13% for 12 wks thru Oct 6 in IRI MULC. When’s the last time we saw that kind of growth in a qtr for either of those two cos, let alone both at the same time? Granted, New Belgium is getting a notable boost from CO full-strength sales in grocery channel in this dataset and has easier comps following tuff declines in 2018. Both Sierra’s and New Belgium’s growth trends are more modest looking at all-channel.
     
  • Craft Brew Alliance trends continue to fluctuate based on Kona pricing. CBA is on an upswing again in scans, with $$ up 4% and volume up 14% for 4 wks in IRI MULC thru Oct 6, improving trends to $$ down 2% and volume flat YTD. Lead brand Kona Big Wave $$ grew 29%, volume up 42.5% for 4 wks with avg price per case down $3.36 to $32.08 for period. Price drops and subsequent growth boosts are even more pronounced in grocery channel for Kona. Big Wave $$ up 44%, volume up 65% for 4 wks, with avg prices down $4.23/case to $29.88. Longboard Lager $$ up 25.6%, volume up 57% for 4 wks with avg prices down a whopping $6.94/case to $27.67.
     
  • Sierra Hazy Little Thing and Firestone 805 sales surpassed two AB IRI craft brands for 4 wks. Sierra Hazy Little Thing IPA and Firestone 805 continue to climb the top brand ranks. Both are top-10 craft brands nationally for latest 12 wks. But for latest 4 wks, Sierra Hazy Little Thing surpassed Elysian Space Dust IPA to become #3 craft IPA and #8 craft brand overall for period. And in far more limited geography Firestone 805 jumped to #9 craft brand for 4 wks as $$ sales surpassed Shock Top Belgian White. Recall, 805 sales already ahead of NBB Fat Tire and Sam Boston Lager YTD.
     
  • Sam 76 officially fell out of top-30 craft brands list YTD; Boston Lager better in grocery. Sam Adams is in midst of another tuff year. Even with better Sam Seasonal trends, particularly during summer mos, Sam Adams $$ down 9% YTD thru Oct 6, according to IRI data provided by Bump Williams Consulting. Big part of that is Sam 76 fall-off following last year’s launch. After becoming a top-30 craft brand in scans last year, it’s consistently declined double-digits in 2019, even as co launched new ad campaign with TV for brand. Sam 76 fell out of the top-30 in latest period. Boston Lager also in midst of another year of decline, down 9% YTD. But trends improving lately, especially in grocery, where it improved to down just 3% for latest 12 wks. Altogether, Boston Beer sales accelerated in latest periods, up 33% for 12 wks thru Oct, behind strong Truly sales and improving Twisted Tea.

Don't miss the key craft learnings on tap at upcoming Beer Insights Seminar, less than 2 weeks away, Nov 17-18 in NYC. An all-star lineup of industry execs will take the stage to offer new insights, crucial data points and intriguing tidbits to help you navigate this transformative moment in the US beer biz. Register now.

Stone Brewing got a small victory against MillerCoors in ongoing Stone vs Keystone lawsuit. After Stone filed motion for further discovery sanctions alleging that MC "selectively" withheld "thousands of pages of responsive evidence" (see Oct 18 issue), Judge recommended Stone should receive partial monetary sanctions from MC for additional legal expenses incurred, per latest court filings on Oct 31. Stone alleged it spent "more than $400,000" in fees "merely to force MillerCoors' compliance with its obligations" to provide these additional documents. And recall, Stone believes those documents further show that MC's "historical use" of the words "Stone" or "Stones" in Keystone mktg "was neither continuous nor widespread."

Late 2019 marks a moment of much transition for California Central Coast brewery Figueroa Mountain. It just hired 30-yr beer biz vet Steve Almaraz as new prexy, luring him over from managing Reyes Beverage Group's craft and specialty portfolio for its distribs out west, mostly in CA. Before that, Steve spent 15 yrs at Firestone Walker. And tho his appointment to prexy role at Fig Mtn represents major piece of the puzzle as co looks to be a much larger, much more important player in its neck of the woods, others still being put into place.

When handful of billboards went up in Shiner, TX and a top sponsor of the small town’s annual music festival claimed that “There’s a new Bock in Shiner,” makers of the town’s namesake beer brand weren’t going to take that lying down. So this week, the town’s Spoetzl Brewery, makers of Shiner brands and major part of Gambrinus Co, wrote open letter to residents of Shiner, published in today’s edition of the town’s weekly Shiner Gazette. In it, co calls out billboards and fest sponsorship supporting Karbach’s big 2019 launch Crawford Bock. That brewer “is owned and operated” by AB InBev, “a public multinational company with its global headquarters in Belgium,” letter pointedly points out. It argues clear distinction between the AB-owned craft brand and “110% independent and family-owned Shiner Bock,” which is “brewed here in Shiner” at Spoetzl brewery that opened back in 1909 in the small town that’s home to just a couple thousand folks. 

It’s been a “challenging year,” a “mixed year” for the Shiner brand, Gambrinus CMO Gregor Mina explained to Craft Brew News. But those challenges not necessarily due to big launch of Crawford Bock and that brand’s partnership with Houston Astros. That “direct link” means Shiner “seeing the biggest impact” in Houston, Gregor shared, “particularly in on-premise” accounts. But co happy it can “hold Bock to flat or low-single-digit declines,” seeing as how many “legacy craft brands” have struggled much more. In fact, all-in, co is “back to growth on Shiner Bock” during recent periods. IRI multi-outlet + convenience data reflects improvement, tho not growth. Shiner Bock $$ down 3.3% yr-to-date in scans thru Oct 6, but -0.9% for 12 wks and down just 0.5% for 4 wks. It’s “a very resilient brand” that’s “intrinsically linked to Texas culture,” in Gregor’s view. So it’s “less affected” by softness hitting many major craft flagships.

Flying Independence Flag in Texas; “Bemusement” in Town  Appearance of 3 Karbach billboards around town of Shiner “started last month,” Gregor told us. And tho Shiner one of many sponsors of town’s music fest for some time, Crawford Bock took on top sponsorship of 2019 fest, backed by AB resources. (Beyond Astros tie-up, AB working to build broader Karbach brand thru music links and sponsorships, according to piece published today by Guilty Eats, which doesn’t mention AB ownership.) “Shiner is a friendly place,” Gregor said. But he thinks the issue of independence is “important for many people who are purchasing a craft beer.” In fact, “craft was born on authenticity,” when “consumers were looking for an authentic alternative” and “a choice over and above what existed before.” But after M&A, it’s a “confusing time for the consumer,” Gregor argued. So folks at Gambrinus and Shiner felt the open letter was best way to “put forward our point of view.” 

Letter claims that “A-B does not want you to know that Karbach is produced at the formerly craft Karbach brewery and at its large, low-cost A-B plant in Houston. This is a huge company with deep pockets seeking to force its way into our town.” It also draws attention to Brewers Assn “Independent Craft” seal, which Shiner employs on its packaging. Since co shared image of letter with followers on social media, it’s seen “a swell of support” from nearby and farther afield. In the town of Shiner, Gregor cited “a lot of bemusement amongst the townspeople,” considering the town and his co are “so connected and have been for such a long time. The beer is named after the town, after all,” he said. 

Seasonal Struggles “Knocked” Shiner Biz, But Light Blonde, Ruby Redbird Up Strong  Instead of big hit from Crawford Bock, Shiner’s “challenging year” seemingly a bit more self-inflicted. Its seasonal line-up struggled. New offering Lemon Pils was “not a success,” Gregor acknowledged, and “really knocked us back right through summer.” So it “took us til Oktoberfest” to “bring the seasonal portfolio back.” Next year it’ll take “a different approach” to seasonals, using “social media listening to determine what prior beers we had in the past” that are “asked for again and again.” So “rather than take a risk,” Shiner will “focus on those beers we know consumers are asking for,” Gregor explained. Response from distribs to that plan positive so far, he said. Meanwhile, co seeing “growth in Shiner Light Blonde,” currently up high single-digits after slowing from much faster 40-50% gains. But “reformulated” and “repackaged” Ruby Redbird continues to be up in 55-60% range, Gregor shared. Co worked on that recipe to get it to 95 calories and to present it as a “craft beer alternative to seltzer,” especially to women. 

Latest Front in Longstanding Bock Battle in Texas  Crawford Bock from Karbach is far from 1st time an AB brand family turned to classic German bock style to make inroads in the state, as Spoetzl brewers note in open letter this week. “A-B’s Ziegenbock and Michelob AmberBock have been around for years,” so if anything, “There’s a new Bock in A-B,” the letter quips. The beer did quickly rise to #3 Karbach brand in IRI scans, with incremental $5.7 mil in sales YTD thru Oct 6. Unsurprisingly, that brand picked up considerably in Sep as Astros got closer to World Series last month. But Michelob AmberBock down 13% to $14.7 mil in IRI MULC YTD, while Ziegenbock off 25% to $7.8 mil in sales. Both down slightly steeper for 4 wks as Crawford passed Ziegenbock and neared the Michelob brand. 

Shiner Bock still holds commanding 78 share of craft bock $$ in IRI MULC YTD, tho that too has slipped a touch in recent periods as Crawford and other smaller brands helped brighten total craft bock picture. Texas is top market for top bock brands and is a must-win market for top US brewer AB. Its total shipments in TX dipped 2.4% in 2018, tracking total volume in the state. So last yr was first yr since 2012 that AB didn’t lose share there. But at 49.1 share, that’s bitter pill in state where AB had 56.5 share of back in 2008. It declined by over 1.5 mil bbls in TX since then.

Don't miss the key craft learnings on tap at upcoming Beer Insights Seminar, less than 2 weeks away, Nov 17-18 in NYC. An all-star lineup of industry execs will take the stage to offer new insights, crucial data points and intriguing tidbits to help you navigate this transformative moment in the US beer biz. Register now.