Beer Marketer's Insights
Throwback Thursday
This week in 1979, INSIGHTS reported Schlitz Brewing had lost over 1 mil bbls in Q3 and shed 2 mil bbls in past 2 quarters. The #3 brewer in US was in a collapse that it was unable to reverse. Schlitz ended up losing 2.55 mil bbls for full yr 1979 and dropped another 2.7 mil the following yr. Schlitz fell from 24.1 mil bbls and 15.6 share in 1976 to 14.9 mil bbls and 8.3 share at end of 1980. Rumors in British press were that Grand Metropolitan Hotels and British American Tobacco Co were interested in acquiring Schlitz. There was also word floating around that Coca-Cola was interested until co made statement to Wall St Journal that it "has absolutely no interest" in getting into beer biz. Stroh eventually bought Schlitz in 1982.
Correction/Clarification
When OMAC Beverage Advisors' Sean McLaren talked about low margin distributors, with EBITDA margins between 1.5% and 4.5%, he was talking about a "range of other [non-beer] distributors/wholesalers." And when he characterized beer distribs' margins as 9%, that was straight out of NBWA's productivity report. His point: "Laws Impact Margins." As Sean said, "the beer industry's unique regulatory and contractual framework contributes substantially to the margin differences between distribution systems."
Updated research pegs cost of steel and aluminum tariffs on US bev manufacturers at $1.714 bil between late Mar 2018 and Aug 2022, Beer Inst shared today. That's $300 mil since end of Feb, so current costs clocking in around $50 mil a month, research from HARBOR Aluminum suggests. And even less of that cost going to US Treasury these days. Govt collected just 7% of cost, down from 8% reported early this yr (see Apr 14 issue). Rest of higher costs went to US and Canadian metal processors, BI reminds. These figures and research from Tax Foundation about potential positives of removing tariffs (Sep 21 issue) featured in Wall St Journal editorial today, linking tariffs to ongoing high rates of inflation.
It was only a matter of time. Constellation is officially seeking full dismissal of Olympic Eagle's lawsuit (see Oct 11 issue) regarding forced termination, per response filed earlier this week.
Tho INSIGHTS hears of tuff October in some geographies, off-premise scans continue to improve. Total beer $$ grew 5.4% for 4 wks thru Oct 15 in NielsenIQ off-premise data, now up 1.3% yr-to-date. Volume down just 1% for the period, still -4% YTD. Avg price per case jumped $1.73 to $28.62 for 4wks, up 6% (vs 5.2% YTD) thanks to 2 wks of Oct price increases captured in this report.
AB US Revs Jumped from $13.7 Bil to $14.5 Bil Last 5 Yrs; 40% Now Above Core, Up from 27%
Back in 2017, AB US net revs at $13.7 bil and 27% of its biz in above-core segments. But for 12 mos thru Sep, AB revs at $14.5 bil and 40% of its biz above core, ABI showed on conference call. That means total AB revs up $800 mil, 6% in that almost 5-yr period. But above core revs up more than $2 bil from roughly $3.7 bil in 2017 to $5.8 bil for 12 mos thru Sep 2022. Recall, Michelob Ultra doubled in 5 yrs and still growing double digits this yr. AB also "driving premiumization" and growing high single-digits yr-to-date with Stella, Kona Big Wave and Estrella Jalisco. RTD spirits now account for about $150 mil in revs. Meanwhile, its share of mainstream "stabilized," according to ABI, and Busch Light one of top 5 share gainers in beer biz since 2019, gaining share each of last 15 qtrs.
AB shipments down 1.8% and sales-to-retailers down 1.7% in Q3, both improvements on 6-mo trends, but "estimated to be below the industry," so AB lost share. AB shipments now down 2.7% and STRs down 3.1% for 9 mos. Notably, Q3 results boosted by "September volumes benefitting from shipment phasing ahead of our October price increases," said ABI. Like HUSA, AB Q3 results significantly better than scan data suggested: AB volume down 5% in in IRI multi-outlet + convenience for 12 weeks thru Oct 2. With rev per bbl up 3.8%, revenues grew 1.9% in Q3 and now up 2.2% for 9 mos. But EBITDA still under pressure in US, down 2% in Q3 and 0.9% for 9 mos.
Join Us for Special Interview With Boston Beer Founder Jim Koch at the 2022 Beer Insights Seminar
The 2022 Beer Insights Seminar is coming right up, starting with a reception on Sunday, November 13 and the program is all day Monday, November 14. The Seminar takes place at the Convene event space, conveniently located in midtown NYC. The afternoon program will feature an extended and unique interview with Boston Beer founder Jim Koch, both a look forward and a look back, from one of industry's leaders for over 35 yrs. Jim will give his inimitable perspective on the industry, Boston Beer and many of his provocative pronouncements as well as Boston Beer's pivots over the decades. You won't wa
Tho its nonalc beers already have limited presence in US mkt, UK's Big Drop Brewing is suddenly slated to dial that up significantly. The NA player from across the pond is partnering with DESTIHL Brewery via a joint venture, seeking to "scale-up production and to handle sales for Big Drop to meet the increasing demand for its beers in the USA," per announcement this afternoon.
JuneShine Set to Surpass 1 Mil Cases in 2022; Spirits RTD Success & New Pks; Brooklyn Taproom
Leading hard kombucha producer JuneShine is on track to collectively crack the 1-million-case mark this yr, riding combo of continued growth in hard kombucha and new line of canned cocktails. Suggests JuneShine isn't meeting initial lofty growth projections that woulda put it well over 100K bbls this yr, but still posting strong growth altogether. JuneShine hard kombuchas continue to grow double-digits in scans, fueled by the variety pk, while several other top hard kombucha families are declining this yr. And after launching spirits-based RTDs this Mar, it's risen the ranks to reach #3 RTD brand fam in San Diego foodstores, #5 in all of SoCal (and rising) and #10 across CA despite a limited footprint. Co initially anticipated 9K bbls of incremental JuneShine spirits RTDs in year one while featuring "Dodge the Sugar" ad campaign (see Apr 1 issue). "We've been humbled by the early success of the JuneShine Spirits brand," said CEO Greg Serrao, adding that brand's also off to a fast start in disparate mkts such as Denver, Hawaii, Seattle, Arizona and New England.

