Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Craft beer gains continue to dwindle in Nielsen All Outlet data as the year's comin' to a close. Craft volume dipped 0.5%, $$ down 1% for 4 wks thru Nov 30 (as defined by Nielsen). Avg prices notably dropped $0.24/case, -0.6% $37.92 for 4 wks too; among the steeper pricing drops craft segment ever had in tracked scans (tho $37.92 is still nearly $0.40 above natl craft avg price/case YTD). So craft volume up just 0.1%, $$ up 1.1% YTD thru Nov to 30. Craft avg prices still up 1%, $0.38 to $37.55 YTD.

Often seen as one macro trend, the urge to “buy local” arises from a number of different consumer motivations, founder of Tropos Consulting (and ex-Molson Coors exec), Mike Kallenberger presented during Calif Craft Brewers Assn fall meeting early this wk. To that end, a lot of folks think “local is all about community,” Mike explained. Well, “it is, and it isn’t,” he said. There are “three ultimate reasons people go to brewpubs and taprooms,” he explained (that is, aside from the obvious: to get a beer). One is tied to the longtime notion of a “third place” (not home or work), which Mike believes is driven by consumers seeking to feel connected to the folks they’re with. But that’s slightly different from brewery patrons interested in buying “local.” Those folks can be driven by two separate interests: seeking deeper connections with their community and seeking knowledge about the origins and sources of the products they buy. And many concerned with the latter do so to support a healthy lifestyle, Mike shared. 

Rise of Farmers Markets, Havens for Locavores (and Craft Drinkers); Ingredient Info Over “Local”?  Perhaps one of best indicators of the rise of consumer interest in buying local is the growth in farmers markets across the US. The number of farmers markets more than quadrupled between 2002 and 2017, according to USDA stats shared by Mike. Growth slowed over last 8 yrs or so, but still grew by over 20% from 7,175 in 2011 to 8,687 in 2017. Count ticked up to 8,711 by Aug 2019, per USDA. Unsurprisingly, weekly craft drinkers are far more frequent shoppers at farmers markets than the average 21+ adult, Mike shared. Almost 2/3 of weekly craft drinkers often shop at farmers markets, according to Kantar’s Yankelovitch MONITOR surveys. About 17% of weekly craft drinkers shop at a farmers market at least once a week, compared to 13% of weekly beer drinkers and just 5% of all 21+ adults. Another 47% of weekly craft drinkers shop at farmers markets at least once a month, over 10 pts higher than the 36% of weekly beer drinkers who said so and more than double 20% of 21+ adults. 

However, the percent of weekly craft drinkers who agree that they “try to buy from smaller local companies instead of large national companies as much as possible” dropped by almost 10 pts between 2014 and 2018, from 72% to 63%. That’s still a very high proportion of core, frequent craft drinkers. Still 8 pts higher than 55% of weekly beer drinkers who agreed with that statement in 2018 (down from 60% in 2014) and over 10 pts higher than 52% of total 21+ population (up a pt from 2014). But also perhaps related to fact that, in 2014, essentially all craft volume came from “smaller local companies.” Obviously a very different story by 2018. 

Separate Datamonitor survey results, also shared by Mike, suggests consumers a bit more concerned about the availability of ingredient and product formulation on packaging. A full 64% of adults said that such info on packages is “appealing” to them. That’s much higher than about 28% of folks who say they “try to buy food and drinks produced locally.” Furthermore, more folks also agree that it’s important to know “the origin of grocery products” (20% said very important; 44% important) compared to 55% of folks who agreed it’s important to choose locally-produced grocery products (16% very important; 39% important). 

Almost 1/3 of 24-31 Yr Olds Drinking at Home More Often Than Last Yr; Here’s Why  Mike dug into motivations that separate consumers who seek connection to folks around them and consumers who seek community connections, revealing major challenge for on-premise biz in general, these days. Vast majority of 21+ adults not changing frequency of drinking alc bevs away from home, per Mintel on-premise market report results. And among 1/3 of folks either going out more or less, group only slightly skews to folks staying in more often. But among 24-31 yr olds, skews much more. Almost 30% of those adults say they cut back on going out to drink since last yr, compared to just 17% who say they drink out more often. 

Why? For 74% of folks staying home, “it’s more relaxing” and 69% of them figured out that “it’s cheaper.” But over a third also commented that “it’s more personal” and that they’re better able to “control alcohol intake,” Mike shared. Meanwhile, both craft and overall beer drinkers more likely to see deeper community connections as an “accomplishment,” the Yankelovich MONITOR surveys show. They’re also more likely to report feeling “more connected lately.” And while just 22% of 21+ adults think it’s important to shop at places that “contribute to a charity or my local community,” that rises to 30% among weekly beer drinkers and 40% among weekly craft drinkers. Finally, regular craft drinkers also more likely than beer drinkers and 21+ adults to report being “concerned with the healthiness of my diet” and that they “do everything I can to promote and maintain my personal health and wellness.” Among Mike’s recommendations for ways brewers can help address these trends, he encouraged them to “re-engage with those consumers who like to drink at home” (tho not by dropping prices unless it’s tied to some other special event or program, he assured) and make sure to provide info on ingredient sourcing.

The 2022 Beer Insights Seminar is coming right up in just 3 weeks. And you won't want to miss this year's event. It starts with a reception on Sunday, November 13th and the program is all day Monday, November 14th.. The Seminar takes place at the event space Convene, conveniently located in midtown NYC. You'll benefit from presentations and discussions with top industry execs and lots of time for networking. The program includes industry leaders like Boston Beer's Jim Koch, Molson Coors' Brian Feiro, AB's Kyle Norrington, Constellation's Jim Sabia, plus BMI's Benj Steinman and in-depth panels on The Evolution & Future of Beer & Beverage Distribution and Reflections from Economists & Beer Industry Experts. Newly added: BMI's Christopher Shepard will present an informative summary of recent consumption trends & the legal landsca

Tho Dos Equis declined for yrs leading up to the pandemic, the disappearance of 40% of its US biz served as a "wake-up call" for the 125-yr-old Mexican beer brand, leading to doubling of portfolio offerings since 2021 with more innovation coming down the pike, Dos Equis sr dir Ligia Patrocinio told Food Dive. Shutdown of bars and restaurants gave Heineken USA a different outlook on the brand, seeking to tap into widespread recognition and reconnect with consumers. Started with pkging refresh and new "Get a Dos" mktg campaign. But co quickly launched Dos Lime & Salt in Sep 2020, followed by Dos Equis Ranch Water in May 2021 (from concept to shelf in 6 mos) and Dos Equis Margarita launched in Jun '22 ("first discussed in January" of this yr).

Dietrich Mateschitz, who discovered an energizing drink called Krating Daeng in Thailand while traveling on business and turned that brand into a global powerhouse, passed away on Sat at age 78. Go deeper and read our outstanding profile in Beverage Business INSIGHTS, about the rise and reign of the man who built not just Red Bull but the energy drink segment itself.

Last issue, INSIGHTS mistakenly printed a Q3 2021 number ($54 mil) for Boston Beer's obsolescence charge when referencing the Q3 2022 charge for switching over inventory to reformulated Truly. The Q3 2022 charge was just $8 mil. INSIGHTS regrets the error.

Analysts covering Boston Beer Q3 ranged anywhere from "moderately encourag[ed]" to generally unimpressed, with another happy to "for once" have a "relatively uneventful" qtr (even with Dogfish impairment charge "surprise"). But investors seemingly more encouraged as SAM stock kept roarin' since Q3 report, finishing Friday up nearly 20% to over $402/share and continuing up 1% today at presstime.

Now here's an evergreen topic: distributor profitability. "In our 36 years of serving beverage distributors nationwide, we find the 'normalized' EBITDA for a typical beer distributor to be between 5-10% of sales," wrote Ippolito Christon. That's higher than range often reported, "because we 'normalize expenses to eliminate discretionary expenditures such as unnecessary family salaries and perks." IC reported "benchmarks" from "proprietary data in our files." A less than 2-mil-case distrib averages EBITDA margin of 4.3%, 2-5 mil cases averages 5.6%, and over 5 mil cases averages 7-8%, said Ippolito Christon.

Dietrich Mateschitz was a jet-lagged, middle-aged marketer for a toothpaste brand when he encountered an odd energizing bev in Thailand called Krating Daeng. With considerable tweaking to appeal to western tastes he thought the brand could fill a niche under the name Red Bull. So he teamed with Krating Daeng's founder Chaleo Yoovidhya and launched Red Bull in Austria in 1987, and the rest is history - to the tune of 9.8 bil cans sold in 172 countries last year. Sadly, Didi's part of this remarkable story came to an end on Saturday, when he passed away after what his company said was long battle with a severe illness that it didn't identify. It didn't offer any further details about passing of entrepreneur who, tho fomenting one larger-than-life stunt after another, was known to strive to protect his personal privacy. He was 78.

After a small decline in alc bev e-commerce sales in 2021, many expect this piece of the biz to grow quickly in coming years. But it presents quite the policy puzzle. Questions revolve around who touches the money, of course, as well as who touches the alcohol. That is, who accepts the liability if the wrong folks touch the alcohol. But other issues keep swirling, including about advertising and product placement on digital platforms. These issues discussed by numerous speakers during Wine, Beer & Spirits Law Conference put on by CLE Intl in Phoenix this wk.