Beer Marketer's Insights
Nadine's Key Takeaways from NBWA Convention: "Fourth Category," RTDs, Hard Tea, Blue Cloud
Bernstein analyst Nadine Sarwat, who appeared on a panel at NBWA convention, also observed key themes and trends she saw there. "All eyes were on fourth category products," according to Nadine, especially spirits RTDs. "What struck us most about our three days at the NBWA Conference is how little time was spent discussing 'traditional beer' and much more time was allocated to 'beyond beer'…. On the expo floor, we saw only a few beer booths (largely craft brands with low attendee interest). The fourth category was the center of attention" and spirits RTDs "really dominated the showcase." But as she notes, Gallo's High Noon has 40 share of volume in the space and AB's Cutwater + NUTRL are over 14 share. With so much competition over still comparatively small mkt, how many other brands will be able to muscle in?
Fall price increases are in and beer $$ sales jumped in scans as a direct result, even as volume trend worsened. Beer $$ grew 3.8% with volume down 3.2% for latest 1 week thru Oct 9 in IRI multi-outlet + convenience data. Avg price/case jumped more than 7%, nearly $2/case, to $29.22 total for the week. That's almost $1/case higher than beer avg price per case YTD thru Oct 2 ($28.29). At same time, spirits' avg price/case actually dipped 1.5% for same week in IRI. Tho spirits sales still outpacing beer on both $$ (+5.6%) and volume (+7.2%). Wine avg prices rose more than 4% yet wine $$ sales still dipped 1.5% for latest week.
Uptime Energy has long been distinguished in the energy cooler by its tall, elegantly curved resealable aluminum bottle. Trouble is, it doesn't fit everywhere, and lately retailers have been reducing shelf heights to they can increase their assortments. So LA-based brand offered new, shorter look at NACS without abandoning that twist-cap format nor the UPC code. With its wider base, it also makes for more stable 12-pk cartons, Uptime team said, and better retail displays. Rebrand also adds fruit imagery to the front panels . . . The insight came from large-format retailer whom interim ceo Blair Owens preferred not to identify: Bai brand's coconut subline wins disproportionate amount of brand-fan interest, so why not offer a Coconut flavor in Hint Water? SF-based co decided to take a flier on concept, starting with its robust DTC platform about a month ago. It duly resonated, so now it will roll out to retail as well, Blair told us . . . Is there any flavor realm where pickles dar
Seattle-based Joyus, which claims to be "the first 100% sober and woman-owned non-alcoholic winery" in US, has extended its portfolio into Cabernet Sauvignon, augmenting lineup of still and sparkling roses as well as sparkling white wine. Winery founded by Jess Selander, now 17 years sober, now is offering a varietal that's aged on American oak and strives to retain tannins, complexity and warmth of traditional Cab but with alcohol gently removed. Entry comes in at only 25 calories per serving. On website it goes out at $28.99 per 750-ml bottle . . . Coca-Cola has offered Vitaminwater extension called Miniest that enables consumers to replicate 20-oz RTD recipe in their own water bottles via 1-oz packets that are being offered in energy- and wellness-oriented variety 12-packs. All-day-energy entry contains Focus, Ice and XXX recipes while Wellness pack contains Rise, Power-C and Refresh recipes. At Target, they're going for just under $20 . . . Enterex Diabetic has augmented its Vanilla nutritional shake with Strawberry entry that's going out next week in 16-packs to 2,800 Walmart stores, just ahead of Nov, National Diabetes Month. Line contains blend of fibers and slow-digesting carbs to help prevent spikes in blood sugar and support blood sugar management as part of diabetes management plan, along with protein, antioxidants and vitamin D . . . NY-based Sanzo Asian-inspired canned sparkler line is celebrating 10th anniversary of city's delirious bout of Linsanity with special Asian Pear extension that celebrates brief heyday of Knicks' player Jeremy Lin, who'd gone from sleeping on friend's couch to sparking run of brilliant play by mediocre team that offered brief galvanizing moment for city's beleaguered hoops fans. All profits are being donated to Jeremy Lin Foundation, which works on income equality and racial justice issues for AAPI youth.
Bloody Mary mixer brand Charleston Mix, which has been focused mainly on its Southeast base for much of its decade-plus history, has moved into more aggressive expansion mode under new ceo Patrick Hollon, soliciting DSD partners in Northeast, Midwest and Texas while eyeing addition of single-serve entries on alc or NA fronts. Superpremium brand currently goes out in pair of 32-oz entries, Bold & Spicy and Fresh & Veggie, priced at premium tier to crowd pleasers like Zing Zang.
Poland Spring or Zephyrhills may not be viewed as the most interesting brands in the world, but Blue Triton Brands is hoping its recruitment as cmo of an exec behind Dos Equis' iconic "Most Interesting Man in the World" campaign may help to change that. Kheri Holland Tillman is taking new role at Stamford, Conn-based co at time it's revved up innovation, as was visible at recent NACS c-store show (BBI, Oct 4), and is hoping to become more of a magnet for other talented marketers. Tho her most noteworthy bev escapade was activating viral concept for Heineken-owned Dos Equis, she brings relevant experience from her most recent role as vp global development & marketing services at audio products purveyor Harman International, where she got brand involved in platforms like NBA and Grammys and worked brand ambassadors like Doja Cat, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Steph Curry and 100 Thieves on behalf of brands like JBL. At Heineken USA she also worked on Amstel and Newcastle Brown Ale brands and served as vp trade marketing & sales strategy. Tho she wasn't involved in devising "Most Interesting Man in the World" campaign, she helped extend it from viral TV commercial to 360-degree program across other media, below-the-line and consumer experience. She'd earlier worked at Kraft Foods, including on coffee brands. In announcement today she described herself as "thrilled to be returning to the consumer packaged goods industry." Said retail prexy Paul Norman: "In addition to a home of great brands, our goal is to further position Blue Triton as a destination for great talent who have the passion and expertise to meet the challenge of our exciting growth strategy. Kheri more than fits the bill and we are delighted to welcome her aboard at this important time." The former Spelman College track & field athlete also adds note of diversity to senior team. Blue Triton, of course, is repository of commodity spring water brands spun off by Nestle as well as its Pure Life municipal water brand, augmented by pickup at premium end of Saratoga Springs brand. As reported, at NACS it was highlighting such innovations as B'eau Collagen Water, Frutitas Aguas Frescas and Action Alkaline Water.
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Seven of top 10 growth brands in craft segment are either high ABV (8% or above) or no-alc. By far the biggest growth brand is New Belgium's Voodoo Ranger Juice Force, which sold almost 1 mil cases, $42.9 mil worth of beer in Nielsen thru 10/1, according to data from Bump Williams Consulting. Juice Force already the largest craft brand launch ever in scan data. What's more, Juice Force getting 2.5x as much growth as #2, which is also a Voodoo Ranger variant; Imperial IPA. On other end of alcohol spectrum, Athletic Brewing has 2 of top 10 growth brands in craft, #6 Run Wild up $6.2 mil, 86% and #9 Upside Dawn up $4.9 mil, 110%. Other top craft growth brands that fit high ABV bill: Goose Tropical Beer Hug, Bell's Hopslam and Sierra's Big Little Thing. This bifurcation happening in craft for better part of 2 yrs. New Belgium leads craft gainers, up $51 mil ($43 mil Juice Force) and Athletic again #2, up $16.8 mil, 110%. Goose #3 gainer, up $5.7 mil, 10%, with all its growth and more from Beer Hug family.
Beer Brands' Shrinking Lifecycle: Only 23% of Brands Intro'd in 2019 Still Growing, 20% DC'd
Did beer become over-reliant on innovation? Of all the 3,428 new beer brands launched in 2019, only 23% (790) are still growing yr-to-date 2022 thru Sep 24, according to data shared by Bump Williams Consulting. About 20% of those 2019 innovations were discontinued in under 3 yrs (200+ brands per yr). And among the 2,715 brands still in market, less than 30% are healthy and growing.
As yet another sign that beer distrib consolidation heating up these days, at NBWA seminar OMAC Bev Advisers co-founder Sean McLaren said: "We're busier than we've ever been." And a banker at NBWA convention told INSIGHTS the exact same thing, while several others talk of multiple deals in works. Something is happening here. "Seems like there is a lot changing right now," said Sean, "a lot of movement… Look at what Reyes is doing," he added, referring to several big RBD deals this fall. "The dollars are getting so high…. Sometimes it becomes so valuable. That's why it doesn't get to the next generation."