Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Coca-Cola said it doesn't expect to reach its previously announced guidance of organic rev growth of 5% and EPS growth of 7.25% to $2.25 per share for full year 2020, per The Street. KO won't be issuing guidance for year going forward, as it noted COVID-19 implications will have "material" impact on its global biz. "Due to the speed with which the COVID-19 situation is developing, there is uncertainty around its ultimate impact; therefore, the negative impact on our financial and operating results cannot be reasonably estimated at this time, but the impact could be material," co stated in 8-K filing this morning. KO also noted it has "contingency plans" in place and expects to continue to supply customers with no near-term disruptions. KO shares were down 8.4% to $38.33 in trading today. We'd noted earlier this week that Morgan Stanley dialed back its rating on KO due to its high exposure to hard-hit foodservice channel (BBI, Mar 17).

In era in which bev brand owners often decry limitations of indie DSD distribution system for its fragmentation and inconsistent performance, is current coronavirus crisis DSD's moment to shine? While several DSD operators we've chatted with have cited pandemic as key brand-building moment for emerging products they're able to get onto depleted retail shelves, it may also prove to be a brand-building moment for DSD concept itself as broadliners and captive systems stumble at meeting their retailers' orders. "Most water and beverages are being OOS (out-of-stock) or are being allocated from our big suppliers like C&S and UNFI," exec at major NY food chain wrote in letter to Big Geyser that was shared with us. "Big Geyser being in stock and keeping our shelves full is a huge support to our customer looking for these products."

What claims are most meaningful to food/bev shoppers these days? Survey by Brainyak Inc's GutCheck finds protein to be leader, listed by 39% or respondents, edging low/no sugar (37%), natural (36%), no artificials (35%) and vitamins (also 35%). Among trending categories that we cover that still seem to have a ways to travel in consumer awareness, probiotic drew 20% of respondents, plant protein 15%, lactose-free 13%. But that's contingent on age, the study shows: for Gen Z consumers, top 3 claims are lactose-free, plant protein and vegan, while millennials covet protein, minerals, plant protein and lactose free. Older cohorts - Gen X and boomers - have essentially identical preference lists: low/no sugar, no artificials, low/no sodium, non-GMO, high in fiber/prebiotics/whole grain. Overall, 56% of shoppers claim to read label in making their purchasing decisions and 65% say some or most of their purchases are "better for you." Findings draw on 7K respondents to online survey that's bala

Rogo Distributors, East Hartford, Conn, DSD house which ceded several brands to Polar Beverage as it planned exit from NAs in order to focus entirely on alc side (BBI, Mar 6), now has filed intention to shut down entirely, at cost of 93 jobs. Local Journal-Inquirer paper cited letter filed with state Labor Dept on Mar 10 indicating cessation of beer activities over coming 2 mos, with layoffs occurring on May 11. The unit of Allan S Goodman Inc will now be entirely vacating 105K-sq-ft warehouse.

There is no evidence that COVID-19 virus is being transmitted to humans from food or food packaging, FDA reported in briefing yesterday afternoon, as reported by regulatory experts EAS Consulting. Nor do food items have to be placed on hold or recalled if an employee at a food facility is diagnosed with COVID-19, tho employees should be informed that someone in facility has tested positive and extra efforts made to clean and sanitize all surfaces, agency officials indicated.

What's the right role for private-equity investors to play in supporting their portfolio cos during economic meltdown accompanying coronavirus spread? Leonard Green & Partners has pledged to commit $10 mil to employee-assistance fund targeting adversely affected portfolio cos, PE Hub reported, citing "person close to the firm." It's in thick of figuring out where the money should go, whether to ailing employees or those laid off. Hard to evaluate how far that commitment will go at firm deploying $15 bil in capital in range of sectors, including likes of J Crew, Container Store and Danny Meyer vehicles Shake Shack and Union Square Group, which just laid off 2,000 employees. At close of 2019, Leonard Green boasted $12 bil in commitments for its 8th flagship fund, Green Equity Investors VIII, as well as $2.75 bil for middle-market fund called Jade Equity Investors. Still, Leonard Green & Partners team hopes to be setting example for other PE players, PE Hub source indicated.

Tho it's early days of coronavirus response and accompanying recession, deal-making flow hasn't sputtered out so far. At go-to banker in healthy food/bev segment, Whipstitch Capital, principal Mike Burgmaier told us today that his remotely working team is in midst of coupla processes: one at initial indication of interest stage, other further along, at letter of intent stage. Neither operates in sectors getting hurt so far by disruption, but both have delayed due date 1-2 weeks. Activity also continues on convertible note for shelf-stable protein bev that's also experiencing robust demand. So activity is highly dependent on class of product and where it's sold, with shelf-stable attribute a plus. Broader picture shows resurgence for cos like Blue Apron and UNFI, Mike noted, but difficulty for those highly dependent on foodservice. Tho clients are buckling down on spending, some have reached out to their existing investors for short-term money to support inventory build (as we reported LifeAid had done to ramp up production of brisk-selling ImmunityAid drink - BBI, Mar 13). "Companies are making the necessary cuts to make their money last longer" but still spending to pursue the clear opportunities in front of them, he said.

Starbucks ceo Kevin Johnson devoted considerable portions of his remarks at co's virtual annual meeting last night to emphasizing how co's values are underpinning its coronavirus response. But it's been getting some pushback on some activities. On CNBC's Mad Money with Jim Cramer, Johnson was forced to defend co's move to repurchase up to 40 mil shares during COVID-19 crisis. "We're being thoughtful and responsible," Johnson insisted. "Look, we've got a strong balance sheet, BBB investment credit rating. If you look at our last earnings call, we had $3 billion of cash on the balance sheet; we've got a $3 billion line of revolving credit." That would be in implicit contrast to airlines, mfrs and others who're claiming cash squeeze now after devoting tens of billions to share repurchases. SBUX shares have dropped 36% YTD, noted CNBC.

Industry assns are wasting no time getting on radar of White House and Congress, dispatching letters requesting assistance in range of ways, from financial relief to waivers of regs. Leading trade group of big bevcos, American Beverage Assn, sent letter to President Trump asking that food/bev be designated an "essential service" that warrants temporary waiver of truck weight restrictions and rest hours for truck drivers. Meanwhile, National Restaurant Assn pegged amount of lost revenues from closing restaurants and bars over next few mos at $225 bil and warned it will account for job losses for 5-7 mil employees, in letter to President Trump, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, per Foodnavigator-USA.com. NRA seeks relief in form of $145 bil survival fund; $100 bil relief thru fed-gov't-backed "business interruption insurance." NRA's also seeking a fed loan program "equal to lost revenue" as well as $45 bil in "expanded access" to fed and conventional loans and $130 mil in "disaster unemployment assistance" for its members. And National Reetail Federation asked for concessions like mandatory default and foreclosure stays or federally funded rent abatement for retailers facing ouster, Retail Dive reported.

Vita Coco ceo Mike Kirban offered deep dive to CNN on logistics of fulfilling spiking demand. While warehouses have been routinely replenished ahead of summer selling season, those stockpiles "are quickly depleting," CNN reported. So its suppliers in Southeast Asia and Brazil are running full tilt rather than winding down to 60-70% capacity range. "We still have a good 40 days' inventory on hand for all items," Mike told CNN. "It happened at a point in time that we're able to keep up." So far, no glitches in getting the finished goods from Asia (via 3-week boat trip) and Brazil (9-day trip) to warehouses in Calif, Texas, Fla, Wash State and along East Coast. But if US lockdowns start to extend to state borders "there are a lot of states in the middle of the country we just wouldn't be able to get product to," Kirban warned. He summarized surreal situation this way: "We're dealing with these massive spikes in business. Yet the world is falling apart."