Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

COVID-19 and the chaos it's engendered is bringing range of effects to bev biz, by no means all of them dire, at least at this early stage. Some categories, particularly bottled water and other hydration items, have been booming, with Vita Coco ceo Mike Kirban telling CNN that spike in demand for co's coconut water rippled east from West Coast this month, with Amazon sales now up 60% and Walmart.com sales up 200%, even as its Ever & Ever canned water rises 210% (see below). "We're dealing with these massive spikes in business. Yet the world is falling apart," he told CNN of key irony underlying the prosperity. Some hot spots revealed by Nielsen data, as charted by Grocery Dive: in first week of Mar, oatmilk sales soared 347.3%, dried beans +62.9%, tuna sales +31.2%, dried milk +126.3%. Sales of fresh meat alternatives increased 206.4% while kombucha sales rose 10.1%. Losers included produce items like apples, -3.2%, and celery, -18.7%.

NY-based Capital Roundtable, which brings folks in middle market together to facilitate fundraising, has temporarily suspended operations "until we can resume production - and we will," per Burt Alimansky, Arlene West and rest of team there . . . Hint Water has been offering 40%-off DTC deal inviting consumers to mix & match 36 bottles for $36 with free shipping, with a free 4-pack of co's lip balm thrown in, too.

Official statement accompanying last week's announcement of PepsiCo's planned purchase of Rockstar Energy was relatively subdued, with ceo Ramon Laguarta quoted using sober terms like "highly strategic acquisition" (BBI, Mar 11). Turns out that, behind the scenes, PEP's strategy vp for N Amer Bevs, Emiliano Di Vincenzo, was considerably more ebullient about potentially transformative nature of $3.85 bil deal, per what seems to be internal memo we've seen reposted on social media by approving observer. "This is one of the largest and most transformational deals PepsiCo ever made, alongside the acquisition of Quaker/Gatorade in 2006 and the buyout of our North America bottling and distribution operations in 2009 and it will dramatically accelerate our growth trajectory for years to come," the former McKinsey consultant wrote. "The deal is subject to regulatory approval, but once approved by the FTC this transaction will allow PepsiCo Beverages North America to play freely in the thriving Energy category, providing our field teams and independent bottling partners with THE MOST compelling product portfolio on the market." As we've reported, there may be another shoe to drop with alliance with Bang Energy, tho any such announcement may need to await FTC approval of Rockstar deal, which would void contractual barriers to Pepsi dalliances with other energy brands. Di Vincenzo concluded his verbal victory lap: "More work to do and news to come but today we celebrate! Like Rockstars."

While we know beer and bev distributors are already engaged in local efforts to assist in battling coronavirus, veteran industry atty and lifelong community volunteer, Art DeCelle at Lehrman Bev Law in Oakton, Virginia, shared this thoughtful proposal with our sibling newsletter Insights Express and some industry leaders. Based on input from his local Arlington Fire and EMS and various public health and industry sources, Art notes: "Most people, including public officials, are anxiously and somewhat helplessly waiting to figure out whether we will see widespread infection and serious consequences for health care providers, supply chains, and other elements of our economy and society. In a worst-case scenario, many drivers and others involved in logistical functions could be ill for a period of time creating gaps in delivery of essential consumer goods at a time when unique needs will arise and spikes in demand will occur." At the same time, Art figures that the closing of so many on-premise outlets around the country "has resulted in lower demand for deliveries. As a result, distributors may have resources that could be deployed for deliveries of essential goods. Their drivers know local geography and tend to be in a younger and lower-risk age demographic. Personnel at distributors' offices are also familiar with geography and have the infrastructure to communicate with drivers."

During times of economic adversity, marketers of packaged goods staples often are viewed as safe harbor in contrast to those in durable goods, travel/hospitality and other more discretionary categories. But coronavirus is having effects beyond normal recession, given widespread restaurant closures it's inducing. So Wall Streeters like Morgan Stanley's Dara Mohsenian are starting to sour even on relatively robust bevcos like Coca-Cola and Monster Beverage. Given "government-mandated closures for businesses and restrictions on public gatherings" driven by COVID-19 crisis, Morgan Stanley just downgraded both KO and MNST from "overweight" to "equal-weight," per Dara. "We are also moving our rating on the beverage industry to in-line from attractive," he added. Note that this is by no means an exhortation to dump shares; just that investors don't need to be accumulating more at this time. We suspect we'll be seeing similar moves by other Wall Street analysts.

Tho even our president finally is ready to acknowledge that US could be in for sustained spell of adversity as incidents of coronavirus continue to spike, Starbucks brass offered some words of comfort and stability at virtual annual meeting today, noting that co has been reopening stores in China, where virus originated, and has committed $130 mil to open largest coffee plant outside US and first in Asia.

Diagnosed in 2015 with ulcerative colitis, a chronic inflammatory disease, Honest Tea and Activate Drinks marketing vet Jesse Merrill was assured by doctor that he'd have to live on harsh steroid drugs the rest of his life to keep at bay symptoms that made eating like swallowing shards of glass. Might dietary change help? No correlation, Jesse was told. Response sent him directly to integrative doctor and 3-year commitment to eating nothing but real foods - including cultured dairy - to reduce the inflammation in his body. "Within 2 months of living on this diet, all of my symptoms went away," without drug interventions, Merrill recalled last week. "Three years later, I was evaluated again and they found that my UC was completely gone. It was as if I never had the disease."

In intriguing book published last year called Infused: Adventures in Tea, an encounter with lightning while accompanying a grower to inspect his rooibos plants in South Africa's Cederberg region prompts meditation from British author and tea importer Henrietta Lovell on the slim boundary between success and failure, both in life and business, in way that might strike a chord among BBI's entrepreneur readers. Lovell, known as The Rare Tea Lady, writes: "I was struck by lightning in another mountain range, the Bolivian Andes, in my life before tea. I survived, obviously, but it has left me with a sickening thrill whenever it lights the sky. That afternoon it reminded me how lucky I'd been: to have survived its strike, cancer twice, a fall down a glacier, a riptide. To have started a company that has survived 14 years at the time of writing has a lot to do with chance. I have walked a knife edge and I know it's not always my hard work or optimism that's saved me but random acts of chance that could easily have gone the other way." Lovell founded her direct trade operation Rare Tea Co in 2004 after tiring of corporate grind and has counted among her hospitality clients Momofuku, Gordon Ramsay, Eleven Madison Park and Claridge's.

Third-wave it ain't. But enjoying success with RTD line of coffees, cappuccinos and hot cocoas inspired by the flavors of Hostess snacks, Trilliant Food & Nutrition is expanding licensed line into range of 4 Hostess Flavored Iced Lattes that "tastefully capture" the flavors of Twinkies, Ding Dongs, Honey Bun and Sno Balls. "They're the perfect, sweet-treat pick-me-up for any time of day," was multi-hyphenated assessment of Christoph Zickler, marketing vp in Neenah, Wis. New line is packed in Frappuccino-like 13.7-oz glass bottle whose label prominently acknowledges items are "artificially flavored." Word of forthcoming lattes drew predictable range of responses from "can't wait" (at KOAA News in Colo) to "now you can drink your way directly to diabetes" (at Boing Boing - so Boing Boing doesn't like Ding Dongs). Line already has been out a while in Keurig-compatible pods. No nutritional info was available yet on bottled line.

Is advent of coronavirus about to reverse plastic backlash? Bloomberg makes that provocative case, reporting retreat to plastic by many consumers whose top priority suddenly has become safety rather than longer-term concerns about environment and climate change. "The virus plays right into the industry's strong suits: disposability and hygiene," as newswire puts it, reporting results of study by co's BloombergNEF (New Energy Finance) arm. "Concerns around food hygiene due to Covid-19 could increase plastic packaging intensity, undoing some of the early progress made by companies," per the report, with greatest spikes in demand for face masks and thin film used in plastic wraps. We'll note, tho, that given widespread reports of hording of bottled water, it's clear that plastic issue has taken back seat on that front too in many households. Among other factors tipping things back in plastic's favor are moves by food chains like Starbucks, Dunkin' and Tim Horton's to suspend the filling of customers' refillable cups, and bottoming out of price of petroleum, key input for plastic. Tho plastics lobbying groups have been making hay now, Bloomberg report assesses trend as temporary one tied to virus. "In the long term, we do not expect this increased demand to have a significant impact on either plastic demand or circular economy goals," per story, which can be viewed here https://finance.yahoo.com/news/plastics-had-falling-favor-then-110008062.html