Beer Marketer's Insights

Beer Marketer's Insights

Early Dec closing of Reyes Holdings purchase of Monarch Bev in Indiana may have finally ended torturous decade-long battle by Monarch and its affiliated trucking company EF Transit to add liquor to their beer and wine distribution biz. Most current iteration was sitting in US Court of Appeals for 7th Circuit. Monarch/EF Transit were arguing fed trucking laws preempt Indiana alc bev laws that bar beer/wine distribs from also selling liquor, an argument it lost in US Dist Ct.

Michelob Ultra and line extensions "collectively spent more than $105 million on marketing in the first three quarters of 2020, up from $93 million in the year-ago period," Business Insider reported via market research firm Kantar. And Mich Ultra will increase its mktg budget next yr, brand's mktg veep Ricardo Marques told BI, tho he wouldn't specify how much. Michelob is also "broadening its portfolio and marketing to people including those older than the Boomers it was originally targeted at," he noted. In the past yr alone, that includes fruit-flavored Mich Ultra Infusions, gluten-reduced Mich Ultra Amber Max, and of course, Mich Ultra Organic Seltzer (set to launch next mo). "We realized that half of the growth in the seltzer segment is actually coming from the 35-plus audience who do not necessarily see themselves in the communication from all our seltzer competition," Marques added.

Consumer Edge's Brett Cooper flagged "rising competition" in NA beer for 2021, which while still small "will have outsized levels of innovation and competition" compared to other parts of beer biz next yr. "We are seeing significant efforts from larger brewers (AB) to craft players (Boston, Brooklyn)," he added. "How and where these brands get share will be interesting to watch." NA beer climbed back to about 1 mil bbls in 2019. That was just half a share of total beer in 2019, INSIGHTS estimates. And that's less than half its peak in the early 90s. But NA beers clearly on the upswing, first led by Heineken 0.0 and craft NAs like Athletic, now with many players jumping in. The real question is how much there is there.

Not a lotta folks around the world sorry to see 2020 end, but ringing in 2021 has its own challenges. Instead of hosting hundreds of thousands of New Year's Eve revelers tonight, New York City's Times Square will be virtually empty. "Starting early the morning of Dec. 31, all streets from 42nd Street to 49th Street from Sixth Avenue to Eighth Avenue will be closed…. And as the NYPD tweeted Monday, 'know that there will be no pedestrians or spectators allowed in Times Square this year,'" as reported by numerous media sources.

Tho industry volume softened late in 2020, still looks like it ended yr flat to down 1%, which is kind of a remarkable result, considering we're in the middle of a pandemic, with widespread closing of on-premise, massive out-of-stocks, and many other headwinds. Results varied widely, depending where and who you were, from up double digits to down double digits for distribs. Supplier variation even wider. To those who had a good (or even great) 2020 in biz, can't remotely rest on your laurels. The beginning of 2021 sets up tough with 2 fewer sell days in Jan, Super Bowl later in 2021, not to mention the pandemic raging more than ever, compared to no pandemic in first couple of months of 2020. And then come mid-Mar, gotta go against super tough pantry loading comp. First qtr ain't gonna be pretty, but hopefully as society normalizes, trends could be much improved as year goes along.

Lack of holiday parties and deepening of Covid spread could still smack Dec spirits sales, but they sailed thru Nov, at least in control states. Selling-day adjusted spirits volume continued to grow in those states, +4.4% in Nov, reports NABCA, tho that's well off outsized rolling 12-mo rate of +9.2%. Dollar sales +9.2%, also below remarkable +14.5% for 12 mos. But still.

Right at end of yr, Molson Coors Bev Co sent a boatload of communications to distribs re its emerging non-alc biz. Those include a new distribution agreement redlined to show the changes, a letter from veep distrib network development Jeff Agasse explaining all the changes, revised distributor standards for NAs, and a sample product data sheet. Then too, NBWA ceo Craig Purser sent a communique to all Molson Coors distribs about changes and extensive discussions NBWA had with Molson Coors that led to improvements in contract. While far too much detail to totally digest today, INSIGHTS flags key changes and issues.

Industry sources had been suggesting for a while that US Depts of Agriculture and HHS would maintain status quo in newest update of Dietary Guidelines for Americans that upper limit for men who drink should be 2/day, as it has been for decades. And that's exactly what feds announced this morning. Recall, scientific advisory committee recommended halving that limit to 1/day, citing new research and links to some cancer risks at lower consumption levels. But Dietary Guidelines for Americans, 2020-2025 state: "Adults of legal drinking age can choose not to drink, or to drink in moderation by limiting intake to 2 drinks or less in a day for men and 1 drink or less in a day for women, when alcohol is consumed. Drinking less is better for health than drinking more. There are some adults who should not drink alcohol, such as women who are pregnant." In comments on webcast this morn, govt official acknowledged that advisory committee recommended new limits for alcohol and added sugar. But Depts of Ag and HHS decided there was "not a preponderance of evidence in the committee's review of studies since the 2015-2020 edition to substantiate changes to the quantitative limits for either added sugars or alcohol at this time."

Almost a yr after 2d largest brewer in the US began operating as Molson Coors Beverage Co, pair of recent articles emerged touting MC's transformation during tumultuous 2020. Recall, flurry of moves included: JV with Yuengling, Topo Chico Hard Seltzer deal with KO, minority stake in ZenWTR, La Colombe distribution deal, importing and distribution agreement with Duvel Moortgat in Canada, and slate of niche NA bevs developed with LA Libations, as Forbes points out. "We're ready to show everybody that these spaces can be meaningful over time," reiterated emerging growth prexy Pete Marino, who has championed team's consistent messaging. Seeking Alpha also published separate

Constellation got an early Christmas present last Thursday as Federal Trade Commission officially approved full deal to sell low-end wine and spirits portfolio primarily to E&J Gallo. Constellation divesting portfolio "principally priced at $11 retail and below, including certain related facilities located in California, New York and Washington state," per release. Deal will close on Jan 4, 2021. Recall, part of Constellation/Gallo deal was already approved by FTC a couple weeks ago (see Dec 16 issue). Rest of deal includes sale of Nobilo Wine to Gallo for $130 mil and Paul Masson Grande Amber Brandy brand to Sazerac for $255 mil, both announced in Jun 2020 (see Jun 25 issue), plus "certain brands used in Constellation's grape juice concentrate business" divested to Vie-Del Company, per release. While initial part of deal with Gallo shrank from $1.7 bil price tag when originally announced to $1.03 bil (see May 29 issue), Constellation still pieced together over $1.4 bil in total expected primarily to help pay down debt.