Beer Marketer's Insights
BEVNET LIVE: Slow Build and Capital Efficiency are Bywords in Today's Constrained Environment
Certainly, those representing capital side were emphatic on that point. There's more money than ever before out there, assured Partnership Capital Growth Advisors' Brent Knudsen, "but people have gotten really smart and profitability really does matter," regardless of economic environment. First Beverage Capital's Bill Anderson offered 2 key lessons. First, "you can't spend your way to prosperity." Don't fall for ruse that ebidta doesn't matter, that it's all about growth. Second, Bill wants to see "comprehensive, well-thought-out distribution plan." That seldom means national landgrab - more likely "own your (core) market and go deep. We're not a big fan of going thin and wide." First Beverage's key bev investment, Activate, tho well funded, has adopted region-by-region approach that only has brand in western states so far. Go-slow approach didn't stop India's Tata from making significant commitment a few weeks ago.
Advice ladled out at Santa Monica, Calif, conference serves as restorative to heady days a few years back when bevcos like Glaceau and Fuze were hellbent on topline growth, ignoring profitability in interest of exit to deep-pocketed strategic. Until bubble burst, that thin-and-wide strategy stood them in good stead. In current environment, tho, private equity folks "are keyed in and locked in on capital efficiency," said John Burns, principal of $300 mil Highland Consumer Fund who in past year stepped in to run fund's Mix1 holding. To Andy Whitman of 2X Consumer Products, only 2 metrics really matter: same-store sales growth and velocity. He's less impressed with brands that are in 5K retail doors than those playing very successfully in 200 doors. Buy the scanner data, he urged, so you know where your brand ranks on those factors before you talk to capital people. Another key predictor: gross margin. If those are stuck in hi 20s/low 30s, co likely won't be able to support needed infrastructure to grow, Andy warned.
Reformed Big Spenders Tout Capital Efficiency Even cos once associated with hyperaggressive expansion are singing from new hymnal, judging by BevNet presentations. At FRS, which has spent tens of millions on Internet ads and TV spots, "biggest reculturization" since he came in as ceo, said Carl Sweat, is that topline growth is not all that counts. Indeed, cost savings implemented over past year allowed co to add $5 mil to marketing budget, he said. Ditto Function Brands' Dayton Miller, which went out at initial valuation believed to be in $100 mil range and epitomized landgrab mentality in wake of Coke purchase of Vitaminwater. After big capital burn that's seen valuation dwindle to fraction of initial figure, Dayton's spent past coupla years narrowing product emphasis to a few specific functions that resonate best with consumers: "It was a question of the ROI with the marketing dollars we were spending," he told conference attendees. Then there's Jones Soda, which once suffered from "major bout of ADD" that saw explosion of entries in organics, teas, energy and functionals, said new ceo Bill Meissner. That's just been trimmed back to coupla carbonated lines in soda and energy.
Realistically, cos aren't necessarily expected to operate in black while building biz, but at least they need to keep losses narrow enough so that prospect of future profitability doesn't seem like mirage. "We were never robustly profitable," confided Honest Tea's Goldman, who expects Coca-Cola to pick up full control of co in Feb. But co managed to get "close to break-even once in a while to show that the business was sound."
"The world has changed," said New Leaf Brands founder and longtime bev exec Eric Skae, who during aggressive growth phase signed about 150 DSD shops but has lately struggled to fund enough production to grow top line to potential. Expansion requires more capital today than 10-12 years ago, so it had better be spent judiciously, Eric advised.
Picking One's Spots - Carefully Numerous BevNet speakers homed in on tradeoffs of making limited capital go a long way. Some advice referred to fundamentals of how co operates: Switch Beverage's Maura Mottolese is careful not to hire big-bevco vets who won't be willing to share hotel rooms or hand out in-store samples, while Honest Tea's Seth Goldman noted that it wasn't so long ago that co was dumpster diving for furniture. At sales/marketing level - what channels to serve, what inducements to offer - tradeoffs can be tuff to make but are necessary. Schools channel can be complicated to serve, warned Switch Beverages' Maura Mottolese, "but the velocity can be mind-blowing" - as high as 50 cases per week - which makes it worthwhile.
Slotting or other retailer inducements? Tho often viewed as fact of life, panelists expressed skepticism on those. When he first pitched his local Whole Foods in Bethesda, Md, Honest Tea co-founder Seth Goldman didn't know enough to realize that buyer's request for free case per store wasn't unreasonable. So he turned them down, but still got into stores. Even a dozen years later, he's still wary of slotting. "I don't think it's something an early-stage entrepreneur should be spending money on," he said. New Leaf's Skae demurred that it's mandatory for some retailers. Still, "if you can't make money on it, don't do it," Eric advised.
Ditto for discounting. You can't rule it out entirely - after all, it's good way to get trial, Seth noted. "Once a quarter we do something, maybe for a week," he said. But "long-term, you've got to make sure there's a brand there, not a commodity." It's dilemma Switch's Mottolese has become familiar with as competition in schools channel has intensified and rivals "are doing crazy things on price." Her bottom line: "You need to promote sometimes . . . but if it's not sustainable, don't get involved."
Meissner's Message: How to Keep It Tight Here are a few rules of thumb from SoBe, Fuze and Talking Rain vet Bill Meissner, who jumped onto hot seat at Jones Soda a few mos ago: Identify a footprint you can drive results thru. If you're in hi-growth vertical channel, stay there. Don't run marketing events in areas where you don't have true on-shelf availability. Be leery of expansion for expansion's sake. "Do you really need to be national?" Bill asked. And don't be overly captivated by prospect of moving brand thru big distribution network. "The big systems work great - if you're big."
BEV DROPLETS: Rexam Eyes Sale of Closures Units; Dannon Drops Some Claims on Probiotic Lines
DISTRIBUTION: Wat-aah Kids' Line Adds Distribution; Cracks Whole Foods; Signs on School Districts
On retail side, Wat-aah has signed Whole Foods' South and South Pacific divs, and is in hunt for LA distributor. Also in mix are Albertson's Southwest district, plus ShopRite, Bloom's and Food Lion. In NY, it just signed Internet delivery service FreshDirect. To service schools it's signed US Foods and is now in 543 schools in 18 states, Bob said. Line currently consists of sku's called Brain, Power, Body and Energy and will be augmented with 2 more functions in Mar, without compromising no-sweetener, no-flavor stance. Recall that healthier-kids-bevs has been notoriously challenging segment that's undone lotsa entrepreneurs. Wat-aah founders, mainly from ad biz, hope to do with aggressive branding and slight nutrient fortification what others have failed to master with colorful, sweetened lines, sip caps and other ploys.
Despite counterculture demeanor, Dan is no stranger to the big time, having earlier had healthcare-related posts at GE Capital and ABN-Amro Bank; he's currently ceo of healthcare play Physicians Capital Corp. But "it's more fun to be in health food than healthcare," he joked.
Pepsi Realigns Roles of Foss, d'Amore
PepsiCo continues to tinker with structure following sweeping acquisition of top 2 bottlers, realigning N Amer bev biz to adjust P&L responsibilities divided between Pepsi Beverages Co chief Eric Foss and PepsiCo Beverages Americas chief Massimo d'Amore. Eric now obtains P&L responsibility for North American CSDs and most noncarbs that move thru bottling system, Beverage Digest reported, citing internal memo. Massimo retains P&L responsibility for Gatorade, Tropicana and Latin American bevs, as well as marketing/innovation for CSDs/noncarbs. Tom Bené, who's run CSDs/noncarbs, segues to prexy of foodservice unit, which has been integrated with cold- and hotfill operations, and reports to Foss, newsletter reported. Mikel Durham, who's been svp on foodservice side while running Naked and Izze, segues to svp/chief innovation officer for foodservice biz, reporting to Massimo. In revamped role, d'Amore becomes senior contact point for indie bottlers.
Energy drink volumes gains "decelerated" in the latest 4 weeks "from the mid-teen growth seen in prior months," Bill reported. Energy drinks were up 9.7% in F/D/Mx/C-stores last 4 wks vs 14.6% gain over last 12 wks. Red Bull slowed to 9.9% gain pace for 4 wks vs 15.5% for 12 wks. Avg Red Bull price down 0.3% for both the 4- and 12-wk periods. Hansen Natural volume up 13.6% last 4 wks, slightly off 17.5% pace over 12 wks. Avg price on HANS off 0.2% for 4 wks vs 0.7% gain for 12 wks. Energy shot leader Living Essentials (5-Hour) got 48.2% volume boost last 4 wks on 1.6% price gain. Living Essentials up 54% for 12 wks. Rockstar Int'l volume slowed to 18% gain last 4 wks (vs 24.5% for 12 wks) with avg price down 1.3%. That's much lower than avg 2.6% price drop for Rockstar over 12 wks. PepsiCo and Coca-Cola energy brands continued to struggle, down 2% and 10.6% respectively for 4 wks. KO brands were down despite avg 5.7% price drop while PEP avg price was 1.1% higher.

