Beer Marketer's Insights
Study Claiming Too Many Hi-Cal Bevs Still Available in School Gets Sharp Rebuttal from ABA Ally
While these findings "seem to contradict" ABA's Mar 2010 report that 99% of schools were in compliance with voluntary guidelines, Robert Wescott, independent economist who worked on ABA report, told HealthDay News why Turner's numbers may be flawed. For starters, "the beverage companies don't report milk," so milks that are higher in fat account for much of "unhealthy" bevs that Turner has ferreted out. Also, ABA figure of 99% came from cos that stock vending machines, so that orders made by schools from other retailers or distribs aren't factored in. Also, ABA points out this study doesn't include data from 09-10 school year, just as "the greatest strides in achieving compliance were made during the summer of 2009."
In interview with BBI, co-founder Greg Stroh and ceo John Burns detailed shift that's seeing core Mix1 All Natural Protein Shake get updated packaging that retains bright colors and square bottle but offers active-sports imagery and cleans up cluttered on-pack copy in favor of clearer description of brand's all natural, high-protein allure. New packs are shipping into current priority markets of Denver, Fla, Atlanta and New England, with co eyeing move into NY and Calif early in new year. Action comes at time that Mix1 principals are in talks with investors, including unidentified strategic investors, who could help co put foot on pedal now that it feels it's got brand's DNA finally figured out. Recall that Burns, general partner at investor Highland Consumer Fund, stepped into ceo role previously held by Bob Pinkerton earlier this year after co failed to meet ambitious growth targets (BBI, Jun 9). Since then co has rethought many of its past assumptions, and team is now ready to offer some of its conclusions.
Market Learning: Meal Replacement Crowd Is Too Amorphous to Reach Effectively So why not stick with meal replacement positioning? Burns said it's important to draw distinction "between the marketing opportunity and how we market." No question meal replacement opportunity is there, he said. Problem is, MR term means different strokes to different folks, doesn't always translate into regular use and offers no effective and efficient way to reach those consumers. As Stroh noted, for co that does a lot of ground-level marketing, meal replacement offers few events that brand can tap into, in contrast to near-limitless array of athletic events, workout venues and other sites that fitness item can chase. So fitness focus "allows our teams to be more focused," Greg said. If brand is positioned as product used by vibrant, healthy, athletic people, then broader meal replacement crowd should follow down road, John added.
So focus now is on serious athletes - not so much stick and ball athletes targeted by Gatorade, which has moved in similar direction to pre- and post-workout occasions, but endurance athletes and gym rats. Tho Gatorade has daunting budget, Mix1 hopes to stand out for its all-natural formulation and sophisticated nutrition profile, which includes such ingredients as olive oil.
On Product Side, Shuffling Flavor Mix, Swapping Daily Wellness Subline for Lean Performance Entry On core enhanced protein shake, co is adding Strawberry Banana and Peach to current array of 5 flavors and readying Chocolate and Vanilla for early 2011, with 1 or 2 of existing sku's likely to get winnowed out about then. At same time, fiber-enhanced subline has been dropped in favor of Lean Performance entry intro'd early this mo (BBI, Oct 11) after message of very-high-fiber, high-antioxidant daily wellness drink just didn't seem to be reaching consumers. Coming in at 90 calories, new line appeases sugar concerns of many consumers while still delivering 10 g of whey protein, making it excellent pre- and post-workout drink for serious athletes as well as their more casual brethren, John indicated.
Distrbution Plan: Hybrid Effort That Dials Up NY, Calif Next Year Like lotsa other altbev cos, co earlier spread itself too thin DSD-wise and has since cut back to core Denver market where it aims to demonstrate brand viability before going national again. It balances its DSD presence in Denver via New Age with direct approach to some retailers, to good effect in growing biz. Now it's in process of seeking DSD coverage in Atlanta, Fla and New England, tho it will insist on similar hybrid route there, Greg said. "We need to be really smart about when to go direct and when to work with DSD partners," he said. Mix1 hopes to have network set by early 2011. On horizon for next phase are NY and Calif. If talks with investors pan out, Mix1 will move faster.
Jamba Juice and ONE Coconut Water are teaming up to offer Jamba-branded line of RTD coconut water fruit juice blends which will move thru ONE's distribution system, primarily Pepsi houses. . . New Leaf Brands, which recently buttressed core tea line with lemonades, is about to add juice cocktail line, ceo Eric Skae told attendees at Coast Brand Summit. New line will be all-natural and formulated from 10% juice, building off early momentum attained by lemonades and filling gap left by earlier stars like Nantucket Nectars and Mistic. No date has been set yet for launch . . . Celsius Inc will offer stevia-sweetened entry next mo to serve natural channel, ceo Steve Haley told Coast Summit . . . Extensive feature article in Wall St Journal's Friday Journal section today highlights major influence of Lynda and Stewart Resnick (POM Wonderful & Fiji Water) who donated $45 mil back in 08 to LA County Museum of Art. The pavilion they helped create is named in their honor.
CCE Ends North America Run on High Note
DPS Profits Down in 3d Qtr
DPS' bottler case sales were up 2% in 3d qtr with CSDs rising 1% while noncarbs rose 5%. Volume was up 3% in US mkt; up 2% in Canada but fell 3% in Mexico. Dr Pepper volume was up 2%, while "Core 4" of 7 Up, Sunkist, A&W and Canada Dry slipped 1%. 7 Up and Sunkist "declined mid-single digits," while A&W was up "low-single" digits and Canada Dry along with Crush grew volume at double-digit pace. In noncarbs, Hawaiian Punch (+7%), Snapple (+10%) and Motts (+3%) all had solid gains for qtr. For YTD, CSDs are up 2% for DPS while noncarbs gained 4%. Asked during conf call what he sees as a sustainable growth rate for DPS' CSD portfolio going forward, ceo Larry Young said, "we look at low single-digits" as reasonable target. Meanwhile, bev concentrate sales were up 7% in 3d qtr and volumes were up 3%.
DPS reported it has generated $1.5 bil in cash from operations YTD, with bulk of that coming from $900 mil payment from PepsiCo. Cap spending totaled $154 mil TYD. Co has paid off $405 mil of debt while also returning $1.05 bil to shareholders thru stock repurchases and dividends. Looking ahead, DPS sez it now expects net sales to rise in 1-2% range, which is down from earlier forecast of 3-5% growth. Co expects EPS of $2.30 to $2.38, which includes $0.01 benefit from recent licensing agreement with Coca-Cola.
While economic environment "remains challenging" in US, Larry Young said DPS is "seeing an uptick" in c-stores for its 20-oz and other single-serve pkgs and that "makes us encouraged" that consumer purchasing is starting to pick up again. He indicated co is quite pleased to have KO transaction completed. DPS rec'd $715 mil payment on Oct 4, and like the PepsiCo payment, it's being recorded as deferred rev and will be "recognized as net sales" over next 25 yrs. He was "very pleased" with how DPS brands performed in 3d qtr, and expressed confidence that with upcoming initiatives, such as bringing back 7 Up Pomegranate for limited time. After it did "extremely well" in tests, DPS will be rolling out a 64-oz Snapple. Also, Motts for Tots will be avail in 4 different SKU's and supported by sampling and coupon offers. Mott's Garden Blend (vegetable juice) was "huge hit" in Canada, noted Larry, and he's eager to see how it fares in US.
Slap Energy Cracks 1,650 Walmart Stores via Magazine Jobber; Wins Front-End Displays at 98 Cents
Network by now has grown to 25-30 distribs in Calif, Nev, Ariz with chronically DSD-challenged Tex about to come aboard in next week or so. Groux pegs indy universe - what some have taken to calling "green" network - at 300+ houses nationally, mix of beer shops, wine & spirits, new-age-only houses. All are adept at building new brands in way that red network (Coke), blue net (Pepsi) and white net (Dr Pepper Snapple) are not, but they've been consistently undermined by chicken-and-egg dilemma that sees wholesalers unwilling to pick up brands without DSD authorization and retailers unwilling to authorize brands without DSD net in place. That's Coast Brands' niche: bringing in adequately capitalized new brands, helping build contiguous DSD network that can serve chains without voids, and quickly winning chain authorizations - at least 1 or 2 within 1st 2 weeks. As Bob noted, chains have grown from half of bev biz to 80% or more in 20 years since he launched Snapple in Calif 20 years ago, making them crucial to early success of brands.
Coast's current network includes such houses as Haralambos, 5 Star, DBI, Mussetter, North Coast and Nor-Cal in Calif, Spike and Hensley in Ariz, and Southern Wine & Spirits in Nev. Note that network includes multiple options in single territory, so that brand conflicts or other issues at 1 house don't rule out coverage in area. Five brands have signed on so far: New Leaf teas/lemonades, Celsius calorie-burning bevs, Oh Yeah protein drinks, and Kronik and Her energy drinks. Coast plans eventually to be active in entire country, including Northeast currently served by Northeast Independent Distributors Assn (NIDA), whose exec dir, Ken Sadowsky, was at meeting. (Way too early to say what implications are for NIDA, Ken said.) Also aboard are 2 strategic partners: The Performance Group, with entrée to Supervalu, and Team Direct, which is tight with chains like Walmart, CVS, Rite-Aid, Walgreens.
In essence, Coast claims to offer new brands a more rational, cost-effective way to work with wholesalers who're set up to do heavy lifting required in 1st year of new brand, relieving brands from temptation to take "shotgun approach" that sees them overstretched, unable to support retail footprint they develop and burning capital. "We were probably a poster child for DSD mistakes," acknowledged Celsius chief Steve Haley, relating how broad TV pickup of brand's calorie-burning properties produced rush of retailer inquiries that co was not equipped to support. Co forgot about plan to focus on Fla base, instead hitting likes of St Louis, Penn and Amarillo, Tex, for pushes that couldn't be sustained. Co has long since split with those DSD houses and "we certainly burned through a lot of money," Steve said.
Among benefits of going thru Coast are vetting new brands, offering standard contract, reducing personnel needs of brand owners, constructing annual promo calendar for chains, negotiating lower slotting fees and providing "immediate, reliable feedback" on how brand is doing, per Bob. Tho CBG gets monthly retainer, per-case commission on sales and buyout should brand be sold, it still runs 50-75% less than brand's hiring own staff to get over hump. As for slotting, Groux offered example of unnamed 1,450-store chain (which some identified as several regions of Safeway) that had been presented with 6 sku's of brand and OK'd 4 of 'em, at fee of $110 per sku per store. CBG presented 28 sku's of its 5 brands to same chain and got all approved at $55 per sku. Brand owners are required to pay all slotting, but promo costs are handled 60% by brand owner, 40% by wholesaler. Standard contract includes 2X buyout tho some attendees figure that likely will move higher to match what's prevailing in other parts of country.
Since grand dimensions of plan became broadly known last spring, lotsa folks on brand side have wondered how realistic its ambitions are. Summit at lavish Resort at Pelican Hill - which Fodor's guide notes as "ultra-glam" but marred by "sky-high prices, even for a swanky resort" - was intended as grand statement that it's workin' in Calif and surrounding states, with flock of brand owners and distribs on hand to attest to that. Bob said he'd drawn 15-20 store buyers repping 10K stores to golf tournament this afternoon on links designed by Tom Fazio. Coupla Coke and Pepsi execs also were there; "don't know what their motives are," Bob joked.
How much $$$ does it take to launch brand? Bob pegs 2-year budget at $2 mil just to launch in Calif/Ariz/Nev: $750K for personnel, $750K for promos, $500K for intro fees (meaning slotting). To go national, up that figure to $10 mil, Groux said. (Countered Celsius' Haley at later point: "I don't care what the number is - it's more.")
So is this truly start of something big? Distribs and suppliers at summit for most part were guardedly optimistic it will play out that way, saying there are kinks to be worked out but model is intriguing. Some worried that Coast's compensation scheme is too steep and that there's also risk of adding too many layers of cost and process with various allies. Some distribs said it will take brand with bigger potential than any of current 5 to really get things off ground. And a few noted that coupla brands, New Leaf and Celsius, are in publicly traded cos with some urgency in getting topline boost, thereby justifying short-term outlay that may be regarded as steep for others. Reservations aside, tho, all deemed it provocative experiment with potential to resolve lotsa issues that lately have made DSD system dysfunctional for new brands. Definitely bears watchin'.
BBI SPOTLIGHT: Attorney Jaglom Offers Primer on How Wholesalers Should Negotiate NA Contracts
Don't Look to Franchise Rights on Soft Drink Side Those who've dealt only in beer, of course, are used to doing business protected by franchise laws protecting vs termination without cause, requiring that brand owners pay fair market value or allow wholesaler to sell rights to other distrib.
On soft drink side, there are no segment-specific franchise laws and no secondary market for distribution rights. General business franchise laws may apply but usually are of only limited help; some may apply only if brand constitutes major proportion of wholesaler's biz, perhaps 20% (point that NJ wholesalers terminated by Vitaminwater and repped by Drew sought to contest a few years back). In general protections are more limited than in beer but may include termination only with good cause.
So what should wholesalers seek if not protected by franchise law? Term of deal becomes more important than ever. Obviously, perpetuity deal is best - but not so obviously, that needs to be stated explicitly in contract. "Courts don't like to think that something goes on forever," Drew warned. How realistic is perpetuity? Major soft drink suppliers have granted perpetual rights to bottlers, but smaller suppliers are more reluctant. It comes down to question of bargaining leverage, Jaglom said.
If perpetuity isn't in cards, try to win successive renewal terms as long as you meet performance goals. Terminations? Suppliers generally will seek right to drop you without cause - don't do it, Drew urged. Require specific grounds for compensation, along with 30-120 day "cure" period in which you can remedy any deficiencies supplier spots.
Question of what are right performance standards is complex one. Goals can include distribution, new accounts or display activity. By all means avoid standards tied to things that are out of your control. Also avoid firm #s where possible in favor of "reasonable efforts." "Best efforts"? Scratch that. There have been cases in NY where "best efforts" was taken to mean you couldn't sell any competing brands. If issue gets deadlocked, good middle ground may be "diligent efforts."
Ins and Outs of Termination Consequences of missing goals? Obviously, termination is most severe sanction, tho contract can be structured to terminate only if goals are missed for 2 consecutive years or 2 years out of 3, rather than just 1 year. Short of outright termination, wholesalers can negotiate chance to make up shortfall in subsequent year or simply pay monetary penalties.
Wholesalers should always seek compensation if termination occurs without cause or via non-renewal of contract. That's well established on beer side, less so in NAs, Drew warned. Ideally, compensation will be for fair market value (FMV), but suppliers will resist that in favor of specific formula. That can be multiple of gross profit, though on NA side these tend to run 1-2X prior year's GP, considerably lower than 2-6X range we see on beer side. Indeed, that's range of beer guys 20 years ago. NAs are "way behind the beer side in recognizing the value of brand rights," Jaglom warned, and of course there are generally no secondary markets where those rights are bought and sold. If GP route is taken, care must be taken on how to define GP: supplier support - including such off-invoice items as tactical spending and rebates - should be included in formula. Other formulas that can be used besides GP? It's not unusual for $/case figure to be employed.
What if termination does occur for cause? Brand rights have value, so there should be compensation paid in those cases too, Jaglom argues. His thesis: "Pay me fair market value minus whatever harm I've caused." "Very tough sell," Drew acknowledged, "but I've succeeded a few times." As so often, it's question of negotiating leverage.
Taking Equity in NA Brands Here's 1 advantage of NAs over beer: ability for wholesalers to take equity in brands. In beer, that can run up against 3-tier issues but it's become common in NAs, tho it makes for more complicated relationship. Equity offers chance to enjoy upside if supplier is setting self up for big sale and also confers modicum of "job security" on wholesaler by strengthening ties to supplier. Care should be taken in working out under what conditions exit occurs: you don't want to get pushed out right before big sale occurs, and with it chance to collect big payout for your efforts in growing brand.
Two Key Differences: Slotting, Sales Reports Of course, paying slotting fees to retailers is illegal in beer, so that's another difference with NAs that may catch beer-only houses flat-footed. Wholesalers need to address at outset whose responsibility it is to pay those. Another crucial difference: sales reports. On beer side, brewers are used to getting #s per sku and per acct. Not so in NAs: distributors regard that as proprietary info; not sharing it creates another barrier to suppliers terminating house. It's hard to avoid providing that data if NA brand is managed by brewer - say, Monster Energy moving via Anheuser-Busch alliance. Otherwise, "don't give away the crown jewels," emphasized Drew.
Exclusivity: Less 'Ironclad' in NAs; Avoid Red Bull-Style Contracts Exclusivity is typical on beer side, less "ironclad" in NAs and may vary by channel. Sort out under what conditions supplier can sell to national accounts and do your best to protect vs channel leakage due to price differentials, Drew urged. Allow a direct-ship carveout only to retailers that refuse to take DSD delivery on any bevs.
What are wholesaler's rights to carry deep portfolio of brands? Jaglom offered negative example of Red Bull contract, which effectively forbids wholesalers from carrying any other good-for-you item (even non-bevs) in any territory (even those where they don't carry Red Bull). "Single worst contract I have ever seen," he declared. "I don't think you can pass out oranges at half-time at your kid's soccer game" without violating clause. "'Competing products' undefined is a dangerous term."
Dealing with New SKUs; Major-Supplier Exception In NAs, which have long adopted "flavor of month" approach to item proliferation, that's big issue that may be unfamiliar to beer side (tho craft players are starting to play that game too). Contract needs to be clear on what items you have access to: all supplier's products? Only members of particular brand or brand family? Listing specific sku's might seem solution - except that you can find that if you're entitled to 12-oz pack, brand owner comes out with 11.5-oz pack for someone else and "you've just been dualed." On intros, does owner need to offer you all new products, or just extensions off brands you have? And are you required to take 'em all? Sometimes it's better to commit to just taking "representative offering" to keep inventory manageable. And if you say no, can supplier go elsewhere? If it's different category, no problem - but draw the line if supplier wants to go to rival with tangerine flavor if you're already carrying orange. Crucial point: make sure to write in an exception for competing items that may be launched by 1 of your major suppliers. "Don't carve yourself out of your most important relationships with some small player," Jaglom warned.
In announcement, LA-based Activate said Tata-led financing also includes vet bev investor James Berkeley, Citigroup exec who was investor in Glaceau, several distributors and such existing investors as Tornante Co and its founders Eisner family. Activate plans to use new money to continue methodical buildout of brand, which launched in LA via Haralambos Bev and to date is in just 7 western states via 28 distributors. Prexy Dan Holland, former wholesaler exec himself, said plan is to have western US covered by end of year, with next region for expansion still be to determined. Recall that earlier capital raise in Mar led by First Beverage Group, Tornante and other investors brought in $6 mil in Mar (BBI, May 6). Activate line was created by Anders Eisner, son of former Disney chief Michael Eisner, principal in Tornante, and Burke Eiteljorg. Besides eponymous flagship line it has added deionized water that vies in Smartwater space.
Dan told BBI that talks started about 2 mos ago as Tata looked for appropriate vehicle for strategic push into US. Co liked brand and what it had accomplished in 14 mos, as well as management team and First Beverage people. It had had dealings with Michael Eisner in past, and Dan was familiar figure to them from his earlier role on Glaceau distributor council, at time Tata held big stake. "It was relationship-driven and they enjoy our model," he said.
Tata made biggest splash on RTD side with investment in Glaceau, which it announced as long-term deal but quickly flipped to Coca-Cola when soft drink giant offered $4 bil for co. Tho Tata Global Beverages operates such familiar bev brands as Tetley Tea and Eight O'Clock Coffee, it has since stayed on sidelines on RTD side, with execs in India offering varying statements to Indian media over past year on where N Amer market ranks as priority. Activate deal suggests Tata is in fact determined to be significant player here.
In statement, Peter Unsworth, group ceo of Tata Global Beverages, said: "We have ambitious growth plans and a vision to become the leader in the 'good for you' beverage segment. This investment is the latest piece in our strategic journey to reach consumers in different ways and to help deliver sustainable hydration across the world." Bevs unit claims to be #2 tea supplier and has annual sales of roughly $1.5 bil.

