Goin’ and blowin’, craft keeps on growin’, up high-double digits thru end of Jun, according to Brewers Assn release today, in what’s at best a flat US mkt.  Category (including new “craft” definition that includes Yuengling, others) up 18%, 1.6 mil bbls over 2013 mid-yr stats. Big, “sustained growth” in part thanks to consistently growing number of breweries to 3,040, up over 500 since end of June, 2013.  In-planning count inching towards 2000 too, just about 70 shy of that at end of last month, BA reports.  At this rate, BA-defined craft will be well over 10 share of total US beer volume by yr-end, gaining more than a full share-pt.    

MC sales prexy Ed McrBrien acknowledged MC’s premium light share losses in note to distribs (0.4 of volume, 0.6 of $$), regarding 2 weeks thru Jul 12^th, according to Nielsen.  But Ed emphasized glass half full: “above premium was a bright spot.  Driven by the Redd’s franchise, Miller Fortune and Smith & Forge, we gained 0.6 dollar share” while AB lost 0.4 share in above premium.  Coors Light Summer Brew got 0.3 share of $$.  In all, MC lost only 0.3 share of $$ while AB lost 1.5 for those 2 weeks in Nielsen.  

Top 4 megabrands have fallen to 39.61 share of $$ in IRI multi-outlet + convenience yr-to-date thru Jul 13, a drop of 1.44 share (but still 42.50 of volume).  The 4 brands, Bud Light, Coors Light, Bud and Miller Lite have lost almost identical share for 4, 13-week and YTD periods, but shifts within megabrands quite striking.  Bud Light volume up 1% YTD and still up 0.7% for 4 weeks.  But each of Bud and Coors Light drops steepened to 5% for latest 4 weeks over Jul 4^th holiday, compared to 2% drops YTD.  And Miller Lite shifted from 0.7% gain YTD  to -1.1% latest 4 weeks in IRI. 

Total beer biz softened to up just 0.3% for 4 weeks and avg prices up just 2.2%.  That compared to 1.8% gain YTD for total beer biz in IRI and 2.6% avg price gain.  Virtually every top company decelerated significantly.  For example, AB and MC each flat in IRI YTD (AB up 0.1% and MC down 0.1%), tho MC STRs down over 2% all channels.  AB’s 6-mo STR # will come out later this week.  In latest 4 weeks, AB down 1.1% in IRI and MC down 2.2%.  Even Crown slowed to “just” an 8.6% gain, compared to 11.9% YTD.  And Boston up 26% compared to 31.8% gain yr-to-date.   Mark Anthony slowed to just 2% growth for 4 weeks.  Pabst, DGUSA drop-offs steepened, while NAB losses moderated slightly (down 6.4%) for weeks.  Of top 10 suppliers, only Yuengling, up 9% for 4 weeks, improved growth rate during period.  

Join us for the 21^st annual Beer Insights Seminar, Nov 9-10 at the Waldorf=Astoria in NYC.  This year, we have already lined up an exciting program featuring some of the industry’s top execs and one provocative panel.  We are proud to announce that MillerCoors ceo Tom Long, Constellation Brands ceo Rob Sands, Heineken USA prexy Dolf van den Brink, plus craft pioneers Brooklyn co-founder Steve Hindy and Deschutes ceo Gary Fish are on the program.  We’re also hosting a panel to explore one of the industry’s hottest topics: franchise law carve-outs for small brewers and other 3-tier issues.  Veteran industry attys Marc Sorini and Mike Madigan will be joined by Manhattan Beer’s chief oper officer Bill Bessette.  More presentations will be added.  The Beer Insights Seminar is one of the industry’s premier events. You won’t want to miss it.  Sign up today to take advantage of special early bird registration.  Click here for more info.  Click here to register. 

VP/GM for several-mil-case distrib of MC, wine and non-alc bevs in desirable NW mkt. Send resumes in confidence.

Some changes at top of largest distrib as younger bro’ Duke moves up from ceo of Bev Group to ceo of all of Reyes Holdings (slightly older brothers Chris Reyes and Jude Reyes own biggest pieces of co) in move that seems designed to facilitate better integration of all the Reyes Holdings companies.  Recall, Reyes Holdings did about $22 bil in revs last yr across Martin Brower, Reinhart and Reyes Bev Group cos.  Meanwhile, Ray Guerin moves up from coo to chief exec officer of Reyes Bev Group.  “Ray has introduced unprecedented levels of innovation, structure, quality and profitability to Reyes Beverage Group,” wrote Duke in internal message.  Ray “forged strong partnerships with our suppliers, dramatically improved service to our customers and created efficiencies that have outpaced the competition,” Duke added.  

While spirits and wine continued to take volume from beer over last decade, annual Gallup Poll reports on what alc bevs adults say they drink “most often” has shown little change since 2005 when wine briefly passed beer in the poll and caused a stir.  Figures for 2014 poll show 41% said they drink beer most often, 31% wine, 23% liquor.  Beer got nice pop last yr, according to Gallup, with increase from 36% in 2013 poll, but little change vs most years 2006 thru 2013.

Those numbers don’t correspond to volume, of course.  Last yr, beer had about 51 share of absolute alcohol consumed, liquor 1/3 and wine just 16%.  In fact, Gallup figures on preference for 2014 virtually the same as in 2004, even while beer shed about 6 share of absolute alcohol volume during this period.  Gotta note that given relatively small sample size, margin of error for preference is 4 full points in either direction.   Then too, not much demographic breakdown in this yrs’ poll.  But recall that some earlier polls showed significant shift in younger drinkers’ preferences.  Key: back in early 90s, 71% of 18-29 yr-olds preferred beer.  By 2012-2013, that dropped to 41%.  That shift is what really explains volume shortfalls. 

MillerCoors STRs down 1.2% in 2d qtr, reported SABMiller today, notable improvement from 3.4% drop in Q1.  What’s more, MC pricing stayed very healthy; net rev per bbl up 4% in qtr.  Each of Coors Light and Miller Lite down low single digits, sez SABMiller, compared to mid-single digit drop in Q1.  And above premium biz again grew at double digit rate, “driven by” Redd’s, Fortune and Smith & Forge.  At same time, Tenth & Blake declined for 2d qtr in a row (low singles) as Blue Moon Seasonals dropped high singles, offsetting low single digit growth of flagship Belgian White and “high single digit growth” of Leinie’s (a slowdown).  Subpremiums still down mid-single digits and remain the biggest drag on MC biz.  Total MC shipments fell 1.7%.  That’s another 270,000 bbls drop, going against easy comp.  MC shipments were off 5% in Q2 2013.  MillerCoors shipments down 660,000 bbls, 2.3% in 1^st half.   

Globally, SABMiller revs up 6% in qtr and volume up 3% organically. But soft drinks, about 20% of volume according to Nomura, up 10% and accounted for about 2/3 of growth.  Lagers up 1% with growth in Europe, Africa and Asia.  SABMiller beat estimates, according to Bloomberg but down slightly today.

HUSA’s top sales exec, Scott Blazek, will be leaving  after 7 yrs at HUSA and 3 as sr veep to pursue other opportunities, HUSA said this morn.   His replacement will be Ray Faust, an 18-yr Coke vet who is currently Coke’s sr veep of Commercial Strategy leading a 300-person team. Scott “decided to leave,” Dolf told INSIGHTS and “we’re grateful for what he’s done.”  But that gave HUSA a chance to “rethink profile” of head of sales job as beer biz continues to change dramatically.  Ray ran a big sales division for Coke (almost $2.5 bil) out of Dallas, so he has “classical field sales experience,” said Dolf.  He also worked at Coca Cola Enterprises, “giving him both a ‘distributor’ and ‘supplier’ point-of view.”  Another key is that Ray has some “complimentary competencies,” according to Dolf that will aid in ongoing “transformation” of HUSA, including his extensive experience in rev mgt, rev growth mgt and category mgt, plus biz development and biz intelligence.  

Scott is one of several sr level departures at HUSA in last couple of mos.  Recall, region veep John Poppy left last mo for Moet Hennessey, biz development veep Chris Wade left and others.  But HUSA sales still has “strong team,” noted Dolf, adding that total HUSA turnover rate at 2.5%, below many major CPG cos.  Meanwhile, many distribs and other sources tell INSIGHTS of increased tension at HUSA recently.  Then too, Dolf is coming up on 5 yr anniversary with Heineken USA, traditionally a time of transition at global co, but Dolf sez he still “needs to complete transformation” of Heineken USA.

After strong growth in 2012, Heineken USA has had to grind it out more in last 18 mos, down slightly but gaining slight share, as total mkt also got tuffer.  While Mexican beer growth strong, Dutch has continued to be a struggle.  Recall, Heineken USA sales-to-retailers down 1.2% in 1^st qtr, following 0.6% decline last yr.  Heineken USA up 2.3% in Nielsen all-outlet thru Jun 14, with results reportedly improving in 2d qtr.  Recall, HUSA also intro’d lotsa innovation in 2d qtr and should get boost from that.

The consumer price index for beer increased 0.8% for month of Jun vs a yr ago while CPI for general inflation increased 2.1%, with much of that hike due to higher gasoline prices.  That’s lowest monthly increase for beer prices since Feb 2013.  Meanwhile CPI for spirits increased slightly in Jun vs yr ago (+0.1%) while wine prices (-0.6%) were down for 5^th straight month.  YTD thru Jun, CPI for beer up 1.5% vs 1.7% increase for general inflation.  Spirits prices up 0.5% and wine down 0.5% Jan-Jun.