AB announced new Bud Light creative yesterday where the #1 brand will “take over a town for a weekend as part of its summer ad campaign,” Ad Age noted, as part of its “Perfect Beer for Whatever Happens” campaign.  Consumers “audition to visit the unspecified town” by “submitting a video at UpforWhatever.com,” said Ad Age.  Winners will go to “Whatever” for a weekend in Aug, “filled with spontaneous fun and surprises around every corner.”  Click here to view the ad.  Bud Light “new summer programming and advertising seeks to do a better job involving young people,” wrote Stifel’s Mark Swartzberg, adding “we believe that since the Super Bowl, Bud Light’s brand health scores are improving.”  ABI spoke at Stifel’s conference yesterday.

Mark also noted coming debut of Mexican brand Montejo, adding the co “is still planning a pilot introduction in the US this fall.”  AB officially acknowledged the brand to just-drinks this morn too. “We anticipate bringing Montejo… to select US test markets this fall,” regional mktg veep Ryan Garcia said, with more details coming in “late summer.” Montejo is a 4.5% ABV pilsener, “acquired by Grupo Modelo in 1979, having first been launched in 1960 in southeast Mexico,” said just-drinks.  With AB owning the #1 Mexican brewer, not having the rights to its lead brands in the US, and Mexican beers accounting for 60% of imports, it was only a matter of time before ABI intro’d in US Montejo or another Mexican brand not already here.   

Recall that plaintiffs in 7 states filed suit vs AB last yr and tried to establish a natl class of aggrieved drinkers.  Suits charged that AB had deliberately watered down its beer to ABV levels lower than those labeled and got lots of media attention.  But it turns out that TTB allows tolerance of up to 0.3 percentage points above or below what’s on the label and none of the plaintiffs even claimed the differential was that large.  Both sides agreed that if the “alleged over reporting of alcohol content is permitted” under TTB regs (true here), and those regs explicitly or implicitly adopted by the states in question (ditto), then “none of the state consumer laws in the Complaint apply and this case must be dismissed,” the judge wrote.  So he dismissed the case with prejudice. 

But not before giving Plaintiffs due consideration, perhaps even more than what they were due.  Plaintiffs argued that: 1) the Court should punish AB for labeling a “knowing misrepresentation” (as distinguished from an unintentional one); 2) allowing such a tolerance conflicts with the “language and purpose” of TTB’s broader regulatory framework and; 3) “tolerance” is an ambiguous word that should not be given its plain meaning.  Patiently, the judge rejected each of these arguments. He concluded: “the clear and unambiguous language” in the regulation “eliminates liability for any over or under-statement of alcohol content” in the label “so long as the stated content is within 0.3 percent of the product’s actual alcohol content.  The protection afforded” by the tolerance reg “is provided without regard to the cause of any deviation or variation, and without regard to the intention behind any misstatement of alcohol content within the defined tolerance range.”  Altho he found it “understandable” that the Plaintiffs felt “slighted by a misrepresentation they believed was knowing and intentional,” the TTB created a “legally permissible range of tolerance” and applied it across the board.  So there is “no legal basis” to continue the case.  Plaintiffs do have recourse, he added.  They can petition TTB to change the reg.

Back to growth for imports after 2-mo pause, including tuff 9% hit in Feb.  Apr import shipments up 259,000 bbls, 10.5%, reports Lester Jones at Beer Inst from Commerce Dept data.  Mexican shipments jumped 16%, Dutch shipments +10% and Belgian shipments up 51%.  With Apr gain, imports’ yr-to-date dropoff disappeared and 4-mo shipments up 28,000 bbls, 0.3%.  But pattern remains very uneven.  Mexican shipments up a healthy 341,000 bbls, 6% for 4 mos.  And Belgian shipments expanded by 2/3, up 262,000 bbls.  But Dutch shipments -13%, Canadian shipments off 16% and German, Irish and UK shipments each off 20% or more.  Recall, domestic brewers’ shipments up 324,000 bbls, 0.6% same period.  Add ’em up and US shipments +352,000 bbls, 0.5% Jan-Apr.  That’s pretty anemic, given boost in AB inventories.  That was going against comp of -2.1% same period in 2013.

The Beer INSIGHTS Spring Conference is coming up next week, June 9-10 at the Ritz Carlton in Chicago.  Don’t miss this provocative and insightful event, including Constellation Brands Beer Division ceo Bill Hackett, Boston Beer chairman Jim Koch, consultant Mike Mazzoni, Lagunitas founder Tony Magee and many more.  A few seats remain.  Click here to check out full agenda.  Click here to register.   

The so-called “Stone Bill” passed both SC Senate and House last week and sits on gov’s desk, with just 1 vote against.  Recall, new bill allows brewery to have on-site restaurant, unlimited production of their own beers for consumption there, but if they serve other beers or wine they must go thru distrib.  The swiftness and certainty of its passage represented a startling shift in the state’s politics; that is catering to craft as an unstoppable freight train.  Wholesalers “can live with it” but “we are not happy about it,” one told INSIGHTS.  Meaning that while wholesalers were able to craft a “compromise” as many reports noted, they were powerless to prevent the bill’s passage.  Yet amidst all the negotiations last week, distribs did reportedly get something they wanted as well; the bill on gov’s desk includes uniform FOBs, which are next door in NC and in very few other states.  Still, craft brewers ain’t satisfied. “It’s merely a step,” Brook Bristow, the lawyer who reps SC craft brewers told the Greenville News.  “It’s a good step but we have a long way to go.”  SC craft brewers will reportedly seek excise tax reduction next yr.   Brewers “will likely” be “back before the lawmakers next year,” added the News, in detailed review of SC beer law changes.  And all this seemingly on a hope and a dream that Stone will someday come to SC. Stone is so far non-committal; Cincinatti’s hopes to snag Stone also surfaced in recent days. 

A handful of states have “post and hold” pricing laws that mandate price changes be notified and held for certain period of time.  Suppliers have never liked ’em.  Earlier this yr, WVa, which had 30-day law, adopted full-fledged 180-day scheme where suppliers must post price 90 days in advance of it going into effect, then hold it for 90 days.  New rules kick in this week.  Indeed, Jun 5 is last day to notify temporary price drop for any period Jul-Sep tho “temporary prices or price promotions may expire or revert back to the base price at any time.”  After Jun 5, new law takes effect and works on quarterly basis: Jan 1, Apr 1, Jul 1, Oct 1.  Any new prices submitted after Jun 6 will take effect Oct 1.  Not a lotta flexibility there and we’ve heard that at least one supplier floated that this could mean it won’t originate price promotions going forward; distribs would have to fund ’em themselves.

Then too, big brewers reportedly not too happy this bill passed in Feb, or with some of its other provisions. For example, bill includes confusing concept of “franchise networks”: brewers would have single network but “could have many acquired franchise distributor networks,” if it buys brands and those networks “bound by the selling brewers franchise distributor network,” according to recent memo from state ABC.  Then too, bill contained what one supplier called “very broad” definition of brand line extensions that could complicate issues for brewers who already have more than one distrib in a footprint (think MC).  Finally, new bill gave broader though not strictly defined powers to ABC, one source tells Express. 

“Beer category had a very difficult beginning of the year,” noted GuestMetrics this morn, including 4.6% drop during 1^st qtr, but improved a bit to 4.1% drop for 4 weeks thru 5/18.  GuestMetrics found a silver lining: trading up.  “Encouragingly, sales were only down 0.9% in the latest 4 weeks driven by +3.2% price/mix as consumers continue to trade up.”  Beer still “outpaced” by spirits and wine and has lost 0.9 share of alc volume so far in 2014, noted GuestMetrics.  Even spirits and wine down 1% and 2% respectively YTD in tuff on-premise channel. Total on-premise $$ actually up 1.5% last 4 weeks. This “could be a sign that on-premise trends might finally start to improve,” noted GuestMetrics.  

Beer volume up 0.3% for 4 weeks and yr-to-date thru May 17 in new Nielsen all-outlet report.  But $$ sales up 3.3% as avg prices up 3%.  Off premise volume for each of AB and MC down 1.4% YTD in Nielsen.  But avg MC prices up 65 cents, 3.5%.  That’s more than double AB’s rate of increase; avg AB prices up 29 cents, 1.5%, less for 4 weeks.  MC accelerated mix shift to higher priced brands and AB decelerated shift as noted on respective conference calls.  Net result: AB has lost much more share of $$ than MC, 1.5 to 0.3.  On volume it’s 0.9 vs 0.5.   Editor’s Note: Nielsen aggregated off-premise trends almost 2 pts slower than IRI’s yr-to-date tho very similar for 4 weeks.   

Constellation Beers and Boston continue to gain the most share of $$ of any suppliers.  Up 0.8 and 0.5 respectively yr-to-date.  Modelo Especial and Angry Orchard have each gained 0.4 share of $$.  That’s the most $$ share of any brands YTD.  So Modelo Especial about half of Constellation’s share gain and Angry Orchard over ¾ of Boston’s share gain.  Three other brands gained 0.3 share of $$: Redd’s Apple, Mang-O-Rita and Raz-Ber-Rita. Miller Fortune just at 0.2, tho 0.3 in most recent 4 weeks.  And total craft gained over 1 share of $$. 

Bud Light Share Up; Rita Franchise Down Two very interesting shifts in latest 4 weeks related to Bud Light megabrand.  First, Bud Light grew volume and share of volume for last 4 weeks.  Share up 0.2 for 4 weeks, compared to down 0.2 YTD.  Got 1% volume gain in period, compared to down 0.7%. YTD.  With better trend, $$ share loss only 0.1 for 4 weeks, compared to 0.5 yr-to-date.  At same time, whole Rita franchise went from plus to minus.  Rita franchise up 26% yr-to-date and gained 0.2 share of volume.  But for 4 weeks, entire franchise down double digits and lost 0.2 share.  Hard to say for sure if these two shifts are connected, but that both happened in same period is worth noting. 

Perils of Innovation?  Last Yr’s Models Continue to Slip Difficult to cycle new brand numbers in yr 2. And we’re seeing a lot of that this yr.  Check out these #s for 2013 new product intros from last 4 weeks in Nielsen data:  Third Shift down 45%, Batch 19 down 58%, Bud Black Crown down 57% and Beck’s Sapphire down 48%.  Not shown separately in Nielsen, but Straw-Ber-Rita down like 60% in recent periods in IRI. 

The Beer INSIGHTS Spring Conference is coming up in less than 2 weeks,  June 9-10 at the Ritz Carlton in Chicago.  It’s sure to be another provocative and insightful event, including speakers like Constellation Brands Beer Division ceo Bill Hackett, Boston Beer chairman Jim Koch, consultant Mike Mazzoni, Lagunitas founder Tony Magee and many more.  You won’t want to miss it.  Click here to check out full agenda.  Not many seats remain.  Click here to register.   

Longtime Heineken USA region veep John Poppy recently left for job with Moet Hennessey.  He will be replaced by Adam Olic, who joined HUSA in 1997 and most recently served as New York zone director.  John is just one of several departures recently, including vp of biz development Chris Wade and NW sales director Jesse Ferber (who left for Columbia Dist).  Recall, cmo Lesya Lysyj left late last yr for Weight Watchers.  HUSA expected to “accelerate” in 2013 (that was theme of its natl distrib convention), but that proved unattainable goal in part because of category weakness.  That made for a more pressured environment, according to reports.  HUSA continued down 1% in Q1.  But recently, its sales have turned further upwards in scan (see above) with shot-in-arm from innovations launching regionally and Mexican brands.