Beer Marketer's Insights
CEO Battered by mounting pr and policy challenges, trade group representing America's soft drink cos has often turned for advice to playbook of beer industry, which for decades have successfully headed off taxation, responsibility and other challenges. In signal mark of recognition of effective role American Beverage Assn has played in combating sugar taxes, school bans and other adversity, Beer Institute now has returned the compliment by recruiting ABA's govt affairs svp, Jim McGreevy, as its prexy/ceo. "Beer faces many challenges on a host of complex industry issues, but Jim's record gives us confidence in his leadership," Anheuser-Busch ceo and incoming BI chmn Luiz Edmond said of 49-year-old McGreevy. "We welcome him to the beer family." He starts on Jun 23, filling slot that's been vacant since departure of Joe McClain, but was expected to be out there mingling at annual membership meeting today. He joined ABA in 05 after 6 years with Larkin Hoffman law firm in Minn.
Avitae Sets C-Store, Drug Tests; Rides Upgraded Packs, Caffeine-Intense Extension into Spring
As it rolls out new look and higher-caffeine addition, Avitae caffeinated bottled water is pushing harden into c-store and drug channels in its core markets in Midwest and Northeast. Clevland-based co now under tutelage of prexy/ceo Norm Snyder anticipates launching 7-Eleven test in pair of core markets, Chicago and Mich, and also is exploring brand's potential within drug channel, planning CVS test and entering Kinney chain in upstate NY. Target will test brand in Jun in perhaps 50-100 stores, Snyder told BBI, and brand has cracked 75 of US military's 180 DeCA commissaries, mandated as healthier alternative to energy drinks and soda. Moves comes as further signs of progress under Snyder's more gradualist approach, in contrast to earlier mgmt team that spent heavily on everything from DSD expansion to arena football.
It continues to make selective additions to DSD network, most recently Marsh in Ind, United Dairy Farmers in W Ohio and Mariano's in Chicago, where talks are under way with Jewell retail chain. Also in discussions are Kroger for eastern half of US. On marketing side Avitae continues mainly to put product into people's hands - say, via opening-day ambushes at Major League Baseball parks in Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland and Washington. As reported, it's also signed 2-year endorsement deal with PGA golfer Kevin Streelman.
Brand has upgraded packs with bullet-shaped half-liter bottle and graphics that play up core "caffeine + water" message and seek to grab shoppers' attention with die-cut holographic label sporting wave theme and light reflection, subtly cueing hydrating benefit. And it's added another tier to caffeine kick, with 125 mg entry buttressing existing 45 mg and 90 mg, each color-coded for easier shopper identification. Highest-intensity offering is equivalent to cup and a half of joe.
Under Snyder, whose resume includes likes of SoBe, High Falls Brewing and Adina, co has engaged in consumer research that's flagged 4 sub-groups worth targeting. There are those who don't like coffee and don't drink it, those who don't like coffee but load it with cream and sugar to disguise taste, those seeking afternoon pickup (and often are looking for alternative that will let them shed Diet Coke habit) and younger consumers. It was latter group that complained existing Avitae entries didn't have enough oomph, hence new 125 mg version. That's still shy of 160 mg in 16-oz Monster Energy, but offers more meaningful burst of energy. In addition, Snyder said eye-opener at Expo West in Mar was how many folks who're into working out regard caffeine as key supplement and welcomed product that both hydrates and offers a lift.
Kefir king Lifeway Foods continue its double-digit growth in first qtr, but profitability took what LWAY brass styled a temporary hit on account of skyrocketing milk prices that already have begun to subside. Net sales at Chicago-area co rose 20% to $29.1 mil thanks to robust growth of flagship Kefir line and extensions like kid-oriented ProBugs Organic Kefir. But cost of goods surged to 74% of net sales from 63% a year earlier because of what prexy/ceo Julie Smolyansky termed record-high prices for milk in Feb and Mar, up 35%, surge that's already begun to abate. Further easing of pressure should occur as milk plant that co bought a year ago in Wis comes on-stream; by Apr it was already producing 70% of milk and half of bottles, on way to being fully operational in 3d qtr. To offset surge in milk costs, LWAY took blended price increase of 5% on its products. Still, for qtr, operating income dropped to $1 mil from $3.7 mil a year earlier and shares took 3-4% hit in early trading today.
Meanwhile, co's products continue to broaden presence in such major retailers as Kroger, Walmart, Target, Costco and Whole Foods (co also makes private-label kefir for Trader Joe), backed by its first national ad campaign. That effort, co's largest media spend ever, commenced in time for Mother's Day holiday and will run thru summer with full-page print ads in books like People, American Baby, Healthy Eating and Shape featuring "Mother culture" theme. Brand is also prepping full launch in Canada in first week of Jun, and has cracked Britain, where it anticipates being in 1K stores by summer peak selling season. This year it's only offering its frozen items in UK, with refrigerated items hitting market next year.
For analysis, Modi looked at Nielsen snapshots for years 2004, 2009 and 2014. Over most recent 5-year period spanning 2009 to 2014, household spending on CSDs is down across broad population by $13 from about $123 to about $110 (Modi's report presents data in bar charts that are hard to read precisely), for 11% decline. For Millennials it's more pronounced decline: from about $115 to $88, down 24%. (Over prior 5-year period Millennials' consumption stayed flat.)
If broad range of consumers are spending $13 less on CSDs, they're spending $11 more on energy drinks - "making up for nearly the entire decline in CSD spending," Modi notes. Household penetration has tripled from 6% to 20%. Intriguingly, while Millennials' consumption over most recent 5-year period has grown from about $46 per household to about $53 per household, an even greater increase has been scored by the 35+ consumer. That group, RBC found, upped its energy spend from about $38 to about $50, up 32% and nearly twice the $$ increase of Millennials. Since data also show their HH penetration hasn't changed, that suggests existing energy consumers are drinking quite a bit more.
Higher-Income Millennials Cut Back on Processed Items Within Millennials group, Nik notes that higher-income tier is crucial. True, lower-income Millennials have shifted purchase behavior too, but much of that has been driven by sheer economic adversity, easing consumption of items they can no longer afford. "However, there are also more high-income Millennials-and it is among these high-income Millennials that the biggest buying pattern changes have occurred," he writes. "These consumers are highly influential and arguably the most attractive consumer base. Over the last 5 years they are seemingly walking away from many consumer packaged goods categories while seeking out a lucky few." The spurned categories include major processed foods/bevs like CSDs, beer, cereal, juices/drinks, frozen meals, salty snacks and chocolate candy. But Millennials are dramatically increasing their purchases of ground coffee and nuts. Another interesting nugget: tho energy drinks remain a premium category, in contrast to relentlessly promoted CSDs, even those economically struggling lower-income Millennials are increasing their purchases of those.
Facebook as Marketing Leveler In making familiar argument that social media help level playing field of marketing for smaller brands, study offers some Facebook "likes" data to buttress point: Suja Juice, just 2 years old, already has 398K likes, while Celestial Seasonings 354K likes and BluePrint Cleanse 55K likes.
As signs of progress, Cue noted that over past 2 qtrs Wal-Mart has moved from selling Jones Soda variety pack to selling 4-packs of Jones Pure Cane Soda throughout about 1,000 stores where brand is authorized, at accessible price of $3.98. Last month, she said, JSDA was granted 500+ additional Wal-Mart stores, all serviced via brand's DSD network. Brand also has made inroads into Ireland and Costa Rica after what Cue said was 18 months of effort. Its innovation efforts are keyed to all-natural Jones Stripped line that tested in Calif last summer and, with some formulation and packaging tweaks, has cracked Whole Foods stores in NorCal and Pac NW and is rolling out this qtr to expanded markets throughout western US and Canada. Other chains that have taken on line include
Tale of 2 Cos: Hain Celestial's Bragging List of Retail Wins Highlights Whole Foods' Affliction
White Wave Scores 12% Sales Gain in Q1; Claims Success in Moves to Rebalance Soymilk Portfolio
White Wave Foods scored stronger performance than its former parent Dean Foods, notching 36% sales increase to $830 mil in Q1, +12% if sales of recently acquired Earthbound Farm are excluded. Operating income surged 35% to $64 mil. In one key segment, Plant-Based Foods/Bevs in N Amer, co offered more evidence that it's successfully diversifying beyond soymilk, with Silk-branded almondmilk surging 52% in segment that's up 20% overall, and new items like almond/coconut blends and almondmilk fortified with protein and fiber garnering solid early reception. Gains have occurred as co has cut back on # of soymilk sku's in what ceo Gregg Engles terms a "rebalancing" that's helped improve retail velocity of remaining soy sku's.
Dean adjusted its full-year outlook downward and also warned that milk market conditions don't get any easier in 2d qtr. Co expects 2d qtr "to be particularly difficult given historically high" raw milk costs and anticipates an EPS loss between 2-8 cents per share in 2d qtr. "We expect results to strengthen in the back half and exceed 2013 performance in the 3d and 4th quarters," assured Gregg. Dean lowered its full year to EPS to around $0.60 per share, considerably lower than previous guidance in range of $0.73 to $0.86 per share.

